Monitoring the Martian Weather with Areostationary SmallSats

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Montabone ◽  
Bruce Cantor ◽  
Michel Capderou ◽  
Robin Fergason ◽  
Lorenzo Feruglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Martian Surface ◽  
Wide Range

<p>The Martian atmosphere (from the surface up to the outer layers) is a very dynamic system, quickly responding to strong radiative forcing coming from the absorption of solar radiation from dust particles lofted during dust storms. So far, such dynamical phenomena at short time scales and large spatial scales have been observed mainly from spacecraft in polar or quasi-polar orbits, which cannot provide continuous and simultaneous observations over fixed, large regions. This limitation can be bypassed using spacecraft in equatorial, circular, planet-synchronous (i.e. areostationary) orbit at an altitude of 17,031.5 km above the Martian surface. Besides their possible use as communication relays for ground-based assets, for space weather monitoring (they orbit outside Mars' bow shock), and for the study of surface properties (e.g. thermal inertia and albedo), the unique scientific advantages of areostationary satellites for weather monitoring are comparable to those provided by geostationary satellites. These platforms greatly increase the temporal resolution and coverage of single events, and are ideally suited for data assimilation in global climate models. Thanks to NASA PSDS3 program, we have elaborated a mission concept to put a low-cost, low-weight, ESPA-class SmallSat in areostationary orbit, which is capable of supporting various tank sizes in order to provide a wide range of ΔV for three different Mars arrival scenarios. ExoTerra Resource LLC adapted its "Electrically Propelled Interplanetary CubeSat" bus as part of the mission design. Despite the optimization of the flight trajectories and the use of machine learning algorithms to prioritize data downlink, the conclusions of the concept study clearly point towards the current challenges represented by propulsion, communication, and possibly radiation tolerance for scientific SmallSat missions to Mars. Such conclusions are generally common among all low-cost interplanetary SmallSat concepts. Furthermore, a single areostationary satellite is enough to provide a full-disk view to monitor regional dust storms and water ice clouds at specific locations, but cannot provide the global coverage required to understand extreme phenomena such as Martian planetary-scale dust events. For this reason, we have recently started to study a more advanced mission concept involving the use of at least three areostationary satellites. This new study is carried out in collaboration with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory within the scope of a wider NASA-funded project (PMCS program) looking at a constellation concept. The challenge is to keep the areostationary satellite configuration within the ESPA class limits, in order to take advantage of possible future rideshare opportunities.</p>

Evidence of Decadal Climate Prediction Skill Resulting from Changes in Anthropogenic Forcing

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 5305-5318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry C. K. Lee ◽  
Francis W. Zwiers ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Min Tsao
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract It is argued that simulations of the twentieth century performed with coupled global climate models with specified historical changes in external radiative forcing can be interpreted as climate hindcasts. A simple Bayesian method for postprocessing such simulations is described, which produces probabilistic hindcasts of interdecadal temperature changes on large spatial scales. Hindcasts produced for the last two decades of the twentieth century are shown to be skillful. The suggestion that skillful decadal forecasts can be produced on large regional scales by exploiting the response to anthropogenic forcing provides additional evidence that anthropogenic change in the composition of the atmosphere has influenced the climate. In the absence of large negative volcanic forcing on the climate system (which cannot presently be forecast), it is predicted that the global mean temperature for the decade 2000–09 will lie above the 1970–99 normal with a probability of 0.94. The global mean temperature anomaly for this decade relative to 1970–99 is predicted to be 0.35°C with a 5%–95% confidence range of 0.21°–0.48°C.

scholarly journals Relationship between Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Local Meteorological Variables Compared in Observations and Several Global Climate Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4344-4359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Stowasser ◽  
Kevin Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Forcing

Abstract The relations between local monthly mean shortwave cloud radiative forcing and aspects of the resolved-scale meteorological fields are investigated in hindcast simulations performed with 12 of the global coupled models included in the model intercomparison conducted as part of the preparation for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In particular, the connection of the cloud forcing over tropical and subtropical ocean areas with resolved midtropospheric vertical velocity and with lower-level relative humidity are investigated and compared among the models. The model results are also compared with observational determinations of the same relationships using satellite data for the cloud forcing and global reanalysis products for the vertical velocity and humidity fields. In the analysis the geographical variability in the long-term mean among all grid points and the interannual variability of the monthly mean at each grid point are considered separately. The shortwave cloud radiative feedback (SWCRF) plays a crucial role in determining the predicted response to large-scale climate forcing (such as from increased greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is thus important to test how the cloud representations in current climate models respond to unforced variability. Overall there is considerable variation among the results for the various models, and all models show some substantial differences from the comparable observed results. The most notable deficiency is a weak representation of the cloud radiative response to variations in vertical velocity in cases of strong ascending or strong descending motions. While the models generally perform better in regimes with only modest upward or downward motions, even in these regimes there is considerable variation among the models in the dependence of SWCRF on vertical velocity. The largest differences between models and observations when SWCRF values are stratified by relative humidity are found in either very moist or very dry regimes. Thus, the largest errors in the model simulations of cloud forcing are prone to be in the western Pacific warm pool area, which is characterized by very moist strong upward currents, and in the rather dry regions where the flow is dominated by descending mean motions.

scholarly journals CRI-HOM: A novel chemical mechanism for simulating Highly Oxygenated Organic Molecules (HOMs) in global chemistry-aerosol-climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Weber ◽  
Alexander Archibald ◽  
Paul Griffiths ◽  
Scott Archer-Nicholls ◽  
Torsten Berndt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Organic Molecules ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Particle Nucleation ◽  
Peroxy Radicals

Abstract. We present here results from a new mechanism, CRI-HOM, which we have developed to simulate the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) from the gas phase oxidation of α-pinene, one of the most widely emitted BVOCs by mass. This concise scheme adds 12 species and 66 reactions to the Common Representative Intermediates (CRI) mechanism v2.2 Reduction 5 and enables the representation of semi-explicit HOM treatment suitable for long term global chemistry- aerosol-climate modelling, within a comprehensive tropospheric chemical mechanism. The key features of the new mechanism are (i) representation of the autoxidation of peroxy radicals from the hydroxyl radical and ozone initiated reactions of α-pinene, (ii) formation of multiple generations of peroxy radicals, (iii) formation of accretion products (dimers) and (iv) isoprene-driven suppression of accretion product formation, as observed in experiments. The mechanism has been constructed through optimisation against a series of flow tube laboratory experiments. The mechanism predicts a HOM yield of 4–6 % under conditions of low to moderate NOx, in line with experimental observations, and reproduces qualitatively the decline in HOM yield and concentration at higher NOx. The mechanism gives a HOM yield that also increases with temperature, in line with observations, and our mechanism compares favourably to some of the limited observations of [HOM] observed in the boreal forest in Finland and in the south east USA. The reproduction of isoprene-driven suppression of HOMs is a key step forward as it enables global climate models to capture the interaction between the major BVOC species, along with the potential climatic feedbacks. This suppression is demonstrated when the mechanism is used to simulate atmospheric profiles over the boreal forest and rainforest; different isoprene concentrations result in different [HOM] distributions, illustrating the importance of BVOC interactions in atmospheric composition and climate. Finally particle nucleation rates calculated from [HOM] in present day and pre- industrial atmospheres suggest that sulphuric acid free nucleation can compete effectively with other nucleation pathways in the boreal forest, particularly in the pre-industrial, with important implications for the aerosol budget and radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1383-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Hezel ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
F. Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

scholarly journals Machine learning uncovers aerosol size information from chemistry and meteorology to quantify potential cloud-forming particles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Nair ◽  
Fangqun Yu ◽  
Pedro Campuzano Jost ◽  
Paul DeMott ◽  
Ezra Levin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in climate change prediction. Here, we present a machine learning/artificial intelligence model that quantifies CCN from variables of aerosol composition, atmospheric trace gases, and meteorology. Comprehensive multi-campaign airborne measurements, covering varied physicochemical regimes in the troposphere, confirm the validity of and help probe the inner workings of this machine learning model: revealing for the first time that different ranges of atmospheric aerosol composition and mass correspond to distinct aerosol number size distributions. Machine learning extracts this information, important for accurate quantification of CCN, additionally from both chemistry and meteorology. This can provide a physicochemically explainable, computationally efficient, robust machine learning pathway in global climate models that only resolve aerosol composition; potentially mitigating the uncertainty of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) and improving confidence in assessment of anthropogenic contributions and climate change projections.

scholarly journals Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Florence Colleoni ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Nancy A. N. Bertler ◽  
Daniel A. Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

scholarly journals An Equatorial Ocean Bottleneck in Global Climate Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Gregory C. Johnson ◽  
Raghu Murtugudde
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a major component of the tropical Pacific Ocean circulation. EUC velocity in most global climate models is sluggish relative to observations. Insufficient ocean resolution slows the EUC in the eastern Pacific where nonlinear terms should dominate the zonal momentum balance. A slow EUC in the east creates a bottleneck for the EUC to the west. However, this bottleneck does not impair other major components of the tropical circulation, including upwelling and poleward transport. In most models, upwelling velocity and poleward transport divergence fall within directly estimated uncertainties. Both of these transports play a critical role in a theory for how the tropical Pacific may change under increased radiative forcing, that is, the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism. These findings suggest that, in the mean, global climate models may not underrepresent the role of equatorial ocean circulation, nor perhaps bias the balance between competing mechanisms for how the tropical Pacific might change in the future. Implications for model improvement under higher resolution are also discussed.

scholarly journals Evaluating multi-year, multi-site data on the energy balance closure of eddy-covariance flux measurements at cropland sites in southwestern Germany

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravshan Eshonkulov ◽  
Arne Poyda ◽  
Joachim Ingwersen ◽  
Hans-Dieter Wizemann ◽  
Tobias K. D. Weber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Closure ◽  
Prevailing Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Prevailing Wind Direction ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The energy balance of eddy-covariance (EC) measurements is typically not closed, resulting in one of the main challenges in evaluating and interpreting EC flux data. Energy balance closure (EBC) is crucial for validating and improving regional and global climate models. To investigate the nature of the gap in EBC for agroecosystems, we analyzed EC measurements from two climatically contrasting regions (Kraichgau – KR – and Swabian Jura – SJ) in southwestern Germany. Data were taken at six fully equipped EC sites from 2010 to 2017. The gap in EBC was quantified by ordinary linear regression, relating the energy balance ratio (EBR), calculated as the quotient of turbulent fluxes and available energy, to the residual energy term. In order to examine potential reasons for differences in EBC, we compared the EBC under varying environmental conditions and investigated a wide range of possible controls. Overall, the variation in EBC was found to be higher during winter than summer. Moreover, we determined that the site had a statistically significant effect on EBC but no significant effect on either crop or region (KR vs SJ). The time-variable footprints of all EC stations were estimated based on data measured in 2015, complimented by micro-topographic analyses along the prevailing wind direction. The smallest mean annual energy balance gap was 17 % in KR and 13 % in SJ. Highest EBRs were mostly found for winds from the prevailing wind direction. The spread of EBRs distinctly narrowed under unstable atmospheric conditions, strong buoyancy, and high friction velocities. Smaller footprint areas led to better EBC due to increasing homogeneity. Flow distortions caused by the back head of the anemometer negatively affected EBC during corresponding wind conditions.

scholarly journals Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of the Radiative Forcing and Radiative Response at Earth’s Surface

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (13) ◽  
pp. 4089-4102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan J. Kramer ◽  
Brian J. Soden ◽  
Angeline G. Pendergrass
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract We analyze the radiative forcing and radiative response at Earth’s surface, where perturbations in the radiation budget regulate the atmospheric hydrological cycle. By applying a radiative kernel-regression technique to CMIP5 climate model simulations where CO2 is instantaneously quadrupled, we evaluate the intermodel spread in surface instantaneous radiative forcing, radiative adjustments to this forcing, and radiative responses to surface warming. The cloud radiative adjustment to CO2 forcing and the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response exhibit significant intermodel spread. In contrast to its counterpart at the top of the atmosphere, the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response at the surface is found to be positive in some models and negative in others. Also, the compensation between the temperature-mediated lapse rate and water vapor radiative responses found in top-of-atmosphere calculations is not present for surface radiative flux changes. Instantaneous radiative forcing at the surface is rarely reported for model simulations; as a result, intermodel differences have not previously been evaluated in global climate models. We demonstrate that the instantaneous radiative forcing is the largest contributor to intermodel spread in effective radiative forcing at the surface. We also find evidence of differences in radiative parameterizations in current models and argue that this is a significant, but largely overlooked, source of bias in climate change simulations.

scholarly journals Energy transport, polar amplification, and ITCZ shifts in the GeoMIP G1 ensemble

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 2287-2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick D. Russotto ◽  
Thomas P. Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Solar Geoengineering ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The polar amplification of warming and the ability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to shift to the north or south are two very important problems in climate science. Examining these behaviors in global climate models (GCMs) running solar geoengineering experiments is helpful not only for predicting the effects of solar geoengineering but also for understanding how these processes work under increased carbon dioxide (CO2). Both polar amplification and ITCZ shifts are closely related to the meridional transport of moist static energy (MSE) by the atmosphere. This study examines changes in MSE transport in 10 fully coupled GCMs in experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), in which the solar constant is reduced to compensate for the radiative forcing from abruptly quadrupled CO2 concentrations. In G1, poleward MSE transport decreases relative to preindustrial conditions in all models, in contrast to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) abrupt4xCO2 experiment, in which poleward MSE transport increases. We show that since poleward energy transport decreases rather than increases, and local feedbacks cannot change the sign of an initial temperature change, the residual polar amplification in the G1 experiment must be due to the net positive forcing in the polar regions and net negative forcing in the tropics, which arise from the different spatial patterns of the simultaneously imposed solar and CO2 forcings. However, the reduction in poleward energy transport likely plays a role in limiting the polar warming in G1. An attribution study with a moist energy balance model shows that cloud feedbacks are the largest source of uncertainty regarding changes in poleward energy transport in midlatitudes in G1, as well as for changes in cross-equatorial energy transport, which are anticorrelated with ITCZ shifts.

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