Modelling long-term acidification: a comparison with diatom reconstructions and the implications for reversibility

A model of long term acidification (magic) is applied to a range of catchments in Scotland that are subject to different pollution inputs and land uses. The simulated historical trends in pH are compared with data from palaeolimnological reconstructions undertaken at the same sites. Both techniques produce similar historical acidification trends and, with some exceptions, closely match observed present day pH. The magic model results indicate that pollution inputs and land-use, particularly afforestation, have significant effects on surface water acidification. Moreover, the model indicates that reversibility may be occurring at several sites. Reversibility of acidification is further explored by using the model in predictive mode under several scenarios for reduction deposition.

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer B. Korosi ◽  
Brian K. Ginn ◽  
Brian F. Cumming ◽  
John P. Smol

Freshwater lakes in the Canadian Maritime provinces have been detrimentally influenced by multiple, often synergistic, anthropogenically-sourced environmental stressors. These include surface-water acidification (and a subsequent decrease in calcium loading to lakes); increased nutrient inputs; watershed development; invasive species; and climate change. While detailed studies of these stressors are often hindered by a lack of predisturbance monitoring information; in many cases, these missing data can be determined using paleolimnological techniques, along with inferences on the full extent of environmental change (and natural variability), the timing of changes, and linkages to probable causes for change. As freshwater resources are important for fisheries, agriculture, municipal drinking water, and recreational activities, among others, understanding long-term ecological changes in response to anthropogenic stressors is critical. To assess the impacts of the major water-quality issues facing freshwater resources in this ecologically significant region, a large number of paleolimnological studies have recently been conducted in Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. These studies showed that several lakes in southwestern Nova Scotia, especially those in Kejimkujik National Park, have undergone surface-water acidification (mean decline of 0.5 pH units) in response to local-source SO2 emissions and the long-range transport of airborne pollutants. There has been no measureable chemical or biological recovery since emission restrictions were enacted. Lakewater calcium (Ca) decline, a recently recognized environmental stressor that is inextricably linked to acidification, has negatively affected the keystone zooplankter Daphnia in at least two lakes in Nova Scotia (and likely more), with critical implications for aquatic food webs. A consistent pattern of increasing planktonic diatoms and scaled chrysophytes was observed in lakes across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, suggesting that the strength and duration of lake thermal stratification has increased since pre-industrial times in response to warming temperatures (∼1.5 °C since 1870). These include three lakes near Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, that are among the last known habitat for critically endangered Atlantic whitefish (Coregonus huntsmani). Overall, these studies suggest that aquatic ecosystems in the Maritime Provinces are being affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors and paleolimnology can be effective for inferring the ecological implications of these stressors.


1988 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lepistö ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
C. Neal ◽  
B. J. Cosby

A modelling study has been undertaken to investigate long-term changes in surface water quality in two contrasting forested catchments; Yli-Knuutila, with high concentrations of base cations and sulphate, in southern Finland; and organically rich, acid Liuhapuro in eastern Finland. The MAGIC model is based on the assumption that certain chemical processes (anion retention, cation exchange, primary mineral weathering, aluminium dissolution and CO2 solubility) in catchment soils are likely keys to the responses of surface water quality to acidic deposition. The model was applied for the first time to an organically rich catchment with high quantities of humic substances. The historical reconstruction of water quality at Yli-Knuutila indicates that the catchment surface waters have lost about 90 μeq l−1 of alkalinity in 140 years, which is about 60% of their preacidification alkalinity. The model reproduces the declining pH levels of recent decades as indicated by paleoecological analysis. Stream acidity trends are investigated assuming two scenarios for future deposition. Assuming deposition rates are maintained in the future at 1984 levels, the model indicates that stream pH is likely to continue to decline below presently measured levels. A 50% reduction in deposition rates would likely result in an increase in pH and alkalinity of the stream, although not to estimated preacidification levels. Because of the high load of organic acids to the Liuhapuro stream it has been acid before atmospheric pollution; a decline of 0.2 pH-units was estimated with increasing leaching of base cations from the soil despite the partial pH buffering of the system by organic compounds.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoyuki Yamashita ◽  
Hiroyuki Sase ◽  
Tsuyoshi Ohizumi ◽  
Junichi Kurokawa ◽  
Toshimasa Ohara ◽  
...  

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Evans ◽  
A. Jenkins ◽  
R. C. Helliwell ◽  
R. Ferrier

Abstract. A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, has been applied to over a thousand sites across the UK. The model is calibrated to surface water samples collected during a survey for the Critical Loads programme, and utilises the best available and consistent estimates of soil physical and chemical properties, rainfall and runoff volumes, and deposition chemistry. A total of 698 sites were calibrated successfully. At these sites, surface water chemistry was reconstructed from 1850 to the present day, and forecast to 2050 based on future decreases in sulphur (S) deposition in response to the Second S Protocol. Model outputs capture distinct regional patterns of acidification and recovery. the most acidic present-day conditions are found in acid-sensitive regions of Northern England (the Pennines, Lake District and North York Moors). Although a significant proportion of sites in these areas failed to calibrate, those that did are predicted to have experienced severe historic decreases in acidic neutralising capacity (ANC) in response to high levels of acidic deposition. The model also indicates significant acidification in the moderate deposition areas of Wales and Galloway, whereas in the low deposition region of northern Scotland, acidification has been minor even in areas of acid-sensitive geology. ANC is forecast to recover at virtually all sites, with the greatest recovery predicted for areas currently subject to high deposition. The model indicates that the Second S Protocol, however, will not be sufficient to produce full recovery, with average ANC increases to 2050 counteracting just 27% of the simulated decline from 1850 to present day. Acidic conditions (ANC < 0) are predicted to persist until 2050 at a significant number of sites in Northern England, Wales and Galloway.


Improvements in techniques of lake-sediment analysis over the last two decades have enabled palaeolimnologists to reconstruct changes in water acidity and atmospheric contamination with high resolution. In the Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) Palaeolimnology Programme these techniques have been used to trace the history of a range of specially selected study sites and to evaluate alternative causes for lake acidification. At the same time further improvements in some of the techniques, especially diatom analysis, have been made.


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