scholarly journals Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon ‘dieback’

2008 ◽  
Vol 363 (1498) ◽  
pp. 1857-1864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Huntingford ◽  
Rosie A Fisher ◽  
Lina Mercado ◽  
Ben B.B Booth ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Light Interception ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Amazonian Rainforest

Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple ‘big-leaf’ approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth.

scholarly journals Land–Ocean Warming Contrast over a Wide Range of Climates: Convective Quasi-Equilibrium Theory and Idealized Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4000-4016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Byrne ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Limited Moisture ◽  
Lapse Rates

Abstract Surface temperatures increase at a greater rate over land than ocean in simulations and observations of global warming. It has previously been proposed that this land–ocean warming contrast is related to different changes in lapse rates over land and ocean because of limited moisture availability over land. A simple theory of the land–ocean warming contrast is developed here in which lapse rates are determined by an assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium. The theory predicts that the difference between land and ocean temperatures increases monotonically as the climate warms or as the land becomes more arid. However, the ratio of differential warming over land and ocean varies nonmonotonically with temperature for constant relative humidities and reaches a maximum at roughly 290 K. The theory is applied to simulations with an idealized general circulation model in which the continental configuration and climate are varied systematically. The simulated warming contrast is confined to latitudes below 50° when climate is varied by changes in longwave optical thickness. The warming contrast depends on land aridity and is larger for zonal land bands than for continents with finite zonal extent. A land–ocean temperature contrast may be induced at higher latitudes by enforcing an arid land surface, but its magnitude is relatively small. The warming contrast is generally well described by the theory, although inclusion of a land–ocean albedo contrast causes the theory to overestimate the land temperatures. Extensions of the theory are discussed to include the effect of large-scale eddies on the extratropical thermal stratification and to account for warming contrasts in both surface air and surface skin temperatures.

HAPEX—MOBILHY: A Hydrologic Atmospheric Experiment the Study of Water Budget and Evaporation Flux at the Climatic Scale

1986 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Claude André ◽  
Jean-Paul Goutorbe ◽  
Alain Perrier
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Hydrology ◽  
Land Surface Water ◽  
Evaporation Flux

The HAPEX-MOBILHY program is aimed at studying the hydrological budget and evaporation flux at the scale of a GCM (general circulation model) grid square, i.e., 104 km2. Different surface and subsurface networks will be operated during the year 1986, to measure and monitor soil moisture, surface-energy budget and surface hydrology, as well as atmospheric properties. A two-and-a-half-month special observing period will allow for detailed measurements of atmospheric fluxes and for intensive remote sensing of surface properties using well-instrumented aircraft. The main objective of the program, for which guest investigations are strongly encouraged, is to provide a data base against which parameterization schemes for the land-surface water budget will be tested and developed.

scholarly journals On the Near-Inertial Resonance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 2661-2672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sévellec ◽  
Joël J.-M. Hirschi ◽  
Adam T. Blaker
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Resonance Phenomenon ◽  
Dimensionless Number ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a crucial component of the global climate system. It is responsible for around a quarter of the global northward heat transport and contributes to the mild European climate. Observations and numerical models suggest a wide range of AMOC variability. Recent results from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) in a high-resolution configuration (¼°) suggest the existence of superinertial variability of the AMOC. In this study, the validity of this result in a theoretical framework is tested. At a low Rossby number and in the presence of Rayleigh friction, it is demonstrated that, unlike a typical forced damped oscillator (which shows subinertial resonance), the AMOC undergoes both super- and subinertial resonances (except at low latitudes and for high friction). A dimensionless number Sr, measuring the ratio of ageo- to geostrophic forcing (i.e., the zonal versus meridional pressure gradients), indicates which of these resonances dominates. If Sr ≪ 1, the AMOC variability is mainly driven by geostrophic forcing and shows subinertial resonance. Alternatively and consistent with the recently published ¼° OGCM experiments, if Sr ≫ 1, the AMOC variability is mainly driven by the ageostrophic forcing and shows superinertial resonance. In both regimes, a forcing of ±1 K induces an AMOC variability of ±10 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) through these near-inertial resonance phenomena. It is also shown that, as expected from numerical simulations, the spatial structure of the near-inertial AMOC variability corresponds to equatorward-propagating waves equivalent to baroclinic Poincaré waves. The long-time average of this resonance phenomenon, raising and depressing the pycnocline, could contribute to the mixing of the ocean stratification.

scholarly journals The Stability of Incremental Analysis Update

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3259-3275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence L. Takacs ◽  
Max J. Suárez ◽  
Ricardo Todling
Keyword(s):  
Digital Filter ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Stability Diagram ◽  
Recent Attempt ◽  
Complex Frequency ◽  
Incremental Analysis ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Background Fields

Abstract A recent attempt to downscale the 50-km MERRA-2 analyses to 7 km revealed an instability associated with the incremental analysis update (IAU) procedure that has thus far gone unnoticed. A theoretical study based on a simple damped harmonic oscillator with complex frequency provides the framework to diagnose the problem and suggests means to avoid it. Three possible approaches to avoid the instability are to (i) choose an “ideal” ratio of the lengths of the predictor and corrector steps of IAU based on a theoretical stability diagram, (ii) time average the background fields used to construct the IAU tendencies with given frequency, or (iii) apply a digital filter modulation to the IAU tendencies. All these are shown to control the instability for a wide range of resolutions when doing up- or downscaling, experiments with the NASA GMAO atmospheric general circulation model. Furthermore, it is found that combining IAU with the ensemble recentering step typical of hybrid ensemble–variational approaches also results in an instability based on the same mechanisms in the members of the ensemble. An example of such occurrence arises in an experiment performed with the GMAO 12.8-km hybrid 4D-EnVar system. Modulation of the ensemble IAU tendencies with a digital filter is shown to avoid the instability. In addition, the stability of certain 4D incremental analysis update (4DIAU) implementations is analyzed and a suggestion is made to improve its results, though a complete study of this subject is postponed to a follow-up work.

scholarly journals The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Phipps ◽  
L. D. Rotstayn ◽  
H. B. Gordon ◽  
J. L. Roberts ◽  
A. C. Hirst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Desktop Computer ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a z-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model.

scholarly journals Energy of Midlatitude Transient Eddies in Idealized Simulations of Changed Climates

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5797-5806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. O’Gorman ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Eddy Kinetic Energy ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract As the climate changes, changes in static stability, meridional temperature gradients, and availability of moisture for latent heat release may exert competing effects on the energy of midlatitude transient eddies. This paper examines how the eddy kinetic energy in midlatitude baroclinic zones responds to changes in radiative forcing in simulations with an idealized moist general circulation model. In a series of simulations in which the optical thickness of the longwave absorber is varied over a wide range, the eddy kinetic energy has a maximum for a climate with mean temperature similar to that of present-day earth, with significantly smaller values both for warmer and for colder climates. In a series of simulations in which the meridional insolation gradient is varied, the eddy kinetic energy increases monotonically with insolation gradient. In both series of simulations, the eddy kinetic energy scales approximately linearly with the dry mean available potential energy averaged over the baroclinic zones. Changes in eddy kinetic energy can therefore be related to the changes in the atmospheric thermal structure that affect the mean available potential energy.

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