Tackling the “wicked” conservation problem of tropical deforestation in global commodity supply chains using mixes of mechanisms

Tropical deforestation in global agricultural commodity supply chains is a “wicked” problem. Attempted solutions to wicked conservation problems like tropical deforestation often involve idealised, technical mechanisms. For example, company commitments to “zero deforestation” have become a mainstay of global forest conservation efforts. To be resolved, however, wicked conservation problems require strategically-developed, context-specific mixes of mechanisms. Drawing on interdisciplinary literature from the policy sciences, energy and land-use policy, and conservation, we examine why the contextual complexity of wicked conservation problems demands mixes of mechanisms. We present an operational model of conservation that incorporates the mechanism mix concept. We then explore how the dynamism and uncertainty of wicked problems means mixes of mechanisms must be continually reconfigured. Drawing the concepts of contextual complexity, dynamism and uncertainty together, we propose a conceptual model – the “M3 Model” – which aids understanding of how mechanism mixes can be reconfigured to sustain progress towards a desired outcome. The M3 model has four practical implications, which we discuss with reference to supply chain initiatives to reduce deforestation. First, it makes the need to address multiple interacting variables explicit, countering the tendency to seek panaceas. Second, it emphasises the importance of analysing mechanisms’ contributions to problem amelioration, instead of their shortcomings as idealised solutions. Third, it highlights the possibility of failure, reorienting conservation practice towards learning. Fourth, it emphasises polycentric governance, reinforcing the need for distributed mechanism deployment across stakeholder groups. Our synthesis provides tools to support a holistic, systemic approach to tackling wicked conservation problems.

Slowing deforestation in Indonesia follows declining oil palm expansion and lower oil prices

Much concern about tropical deforestation focuses on oil palm plantations, but their impacts remain poorly quantified. Using satellites, we estimated annual expansion of large-scale (industrial) and smallholder oil palm plantations and their overlap with forest loss from 2001 to 2019 in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer.Over nineteen years, the area under oil palm doubled, reaching 16.24 million hectares (Mha) in 2019 (64% industrial; 36% smallholder), more than official estimates of 14.72 Mha. This expansion was responsible for nearly one-third (2.85 Mha) of Indonesia’s loss of old-growth forests (9.79 Mha). Industrial plantations were associated with three times as much forest conversion as smallholder plantings (2.13 Mha vs 0.72 Mha). New plantations peaked in 2009 and 2012 and declined thereafter. Deforestation peaked in 2016 and fell below pre-2004 levels in 2017-2019. Expansion of industrial plantations and forest loss were correlated with palm oil prices. A price decline of 1% was associated with a 1.08% decrease in new industrial plantations and with a 0.68% decrease of forest loss. This slow-down provides an opportunity for the Indonesian government to focus on details of sustainable oil palm management. If prices rise, effective regulations will remain key to minimising deforestation.