Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may ‘bridge’ proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.

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Eastward Shift of Interannual Climate Variability in the South Indian Ocean since 1950

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-21-0356.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-46

Author(s):

Lei Zhang ◽

Weiqing Han ◽

Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽

Yuanlong Li ◽

Tomoki Tozuka

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Dominant Role ◽

Tropical Pacific ◽

The South ◽

South Indian Ocean ◽

Climate Modes ◽

South Indian ◽

Interannual Climate Variability

AbstractThe subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and Ningaloo Niño are the two dominant modes of interannual climate variability in the subtropical South Indian Ocean. Observations show that the SIOD has been weakening in the recent decades, while Ningaloo Niño has been strengthening. In this study, we investigate the causes for such changes by analyzing climate model experiments using the NCAR Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Ensemble-mean results from CESM1 large-ensemble (CESM1-LE) suggest that the external forcing causes negligible changes in the amplitudes of the SIOD and Ningaloo Niño, suggesting a dominant role of internal climate variability. Meanwhile, results from CESM1 pacemaker experiments reveal that the observed changes in the two climate modes cannot be attributed to the effect of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in either the tropical Pacific or tropical Indian Oceans. By further comparing different ensemble members from the CESM1-LE, we find that a Warm Pool Dipole mode of decadal variability, with opposite SSTA in the southeast Indian Ocean and the western-central tropical Pacific Ocean plays an important role in driving the observed changes in the SIOD and Ningaloo Niño. These changes in the two climate modes have considerable impacts on precipitation and sea level variabilities in the South Indian Ocean region.

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Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2125.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (15) ◽

pp. 3872-3889 ◽

Cited By ~ 139

Author(s):

Jesse Kenyon ◽

Gabriele C. Hegerl

Keyword(s):

North America ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Temperature Extremes ◽

Modes Of Variability ◽

The North ◽

The Pacific ◽

The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

Modes Of Climate Variability

Abstract The influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on worldwide summer and winter temperature extremes has been analyzed, namely, that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific interdecadal climate variability. Monthly indexes for temperature extremes from worldwide land areas are used describe moderate extremes, such as the number of exceedences of the 90th and 10th climatological percentiles, and more extreme events such as the annual, most extreme temperature. This study examines which extremes show a statistically significant (5%) difference between the positive and negative phases of a circulation regime. Results show that temperature extremes are substantially affected by large-scale circulation patterns, and they show distinct regional patterns of response to modes of climate variability. The effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the world but most clearly around the Pacific Rim and throughout all of North America. Likewise, the influence of Pacific interdecadal variability is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere, especially around the Pacific region and North America, but it extends to the Southern Hemisphere. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong continent-wide effect for Eurasia, with a clear but weaker effect over North America. Modes of variability influence the shape of the daily temperature distribution beyond a simple shift, often affecting cold and warm extremes and sometimes daytime and nighttime temperatures differently. Therefore, for reliable attribution of changes in extremes as well as prediction of future changes, changes in modes of variability need to be accounted for.

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PLANETARY-SCALE CLIMATIC INDICES AND RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DECADAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Brazilian Journal of Geophysics ◽

10.22564/rbgf.v31i1.244 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 31 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Luciana Figueiredo Prado ◽

Ilana Wainer

Keyword(s):

Decadal Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽

Tropical Atlantic ◽

Climatic Index ◽

Climatic Indices ◽

Atmospheric Research ◽

Precipitation Climatology ◽

Environmental Prediction ◽

Global Precipitation

This work analyzes the relationship between climatic index and rainfall in the Northeastern (NE) and Southern (S) Brazil, in decadal timescale. The climatic indices were obtained from the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) between 1948 and 2008. Subsequently, (indices and rainfall correlation coefficients derived from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) dataset were calculated using filtered and non-filtered time series, within the decadal frequency). The results show that ElNi ˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main phenomenon influencing NE rainfall due to related changes in tropical circulation while the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) annual cycle also affects rainfall in the NE to a lesser extent. Meanwhile, in the Southern region, the most important phenomenon is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) which controls cyclones activity in mid-latitudes. The Tropical Atlantic dipole index (ADI) also influences the rainfall in the Southern, and this might be related to moisture being transported from the ocean to the continent, which is then carried to the South by the Low Level Jet. It is also suggested that the decadal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and its influence on the precipitation in NE andS regions of Brazil are episodic because no significant correlations were obtained at decadal frequency. Finally, the spectral analysis revealed that the interannual timescale is the main frequency of variability in both studied regions, affecting differently each one of them. RESUMO: Este trabalho analisa as relações entre índices climáticos e a precipitação no Nordeste (NE) e Sul (S) do Brasil, em escala decadal. Os índices climáticos foram obtidos a partir de dados da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research), para o período de 1948 a 2008. Posteriormente, foram obtidos os coeficientes de correlação entre os índices e as anomalias de precipitação advindas do banco de dados do GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) nestas regiões, utilizando séries não filtradas e séries filtradas na frequência decadal. Os resultados sugerem que o principal fenômeno que modula a precipitação no NE é o El Ni˜no-Oscilação Sul (ENOS), devido às alterações na circulação tropical, e também o ciclo anual da Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT), que modula a estação chuvosa do NE. Na região S, o fenômeno que mais influencia a precipitação em escala decadal é o Modo Anular Sul (SAM),por modular a atividade ciclogenética em latitudes médias, além do índice do dipolo do Atlântico Tropical (DA), que pode estar ligado ao aporte de umidade oceânica para o continente, e levada ao S pelo jato de baixos níveis. Também se sugere que a variabilidade decadal do Atlântico tropical e sua influência na precipitação no NE sejam episódicas, e não periódica, já que não foram obtidas correlações importantes para este índice, na frequência estudada. Finalmente, a análise espectral revelouque a escala interanual é a principal frequência de variabilidade temporal em ambas as regiões, com efeitos diversos em cada uma delas.Palavras-chave: precipitação, ENOS, Atlântico, SAM.

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Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-11-447-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 447-468 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kira Rehfeld ◽

Raphaël Hébert ◽

Juan M. Lora ◽

Marcus Lofverstrom ◽

Chris M. Brierley

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Temperature Change ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Temperature Variability ◽

Climate Modes ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections.

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Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-1024.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (13) ◽

pp. 5527-5545 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

John T. Fasullo ◽

A. S. Phillips ◽

C. Deser

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Intrinsic Variability ◽

Annular Modes ◽

Internal Climate Variability ◽

The North ◽

The Pacific ◽

The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

Modes Of Climate Variability

AbstractThe adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. For ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

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Climate variability and breeding parameters of a transhemispheric migratory seabird over seven decades

Marine Ecology Progress Series ◽

10.3354/meps13328 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 642 ◽

pp. 191-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

CA Price ◽

K Hartmann ◽

TJ Emery ◽

EJ Woehler ◽

CR McMahon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Southern Annular Mode ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Ecological Processes ◽

Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽

Breeding Parameters

Climate variability affects physical oceanographic systems and environmental conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. These changes can influence biological and ecological processes, from primary productivity to higher trophic levels. Short-tailed shearwaters Ardenna tenuirostris are transhemispheric migratory procellariiform seabirds that forage on secondary consumers such as fish (myctophids) and zooplankton (euphausiids). In this study, we investigated the breeding parameters of the short-tailed shearwater from a colony of 100 to 200 breeding pairs at Fisher Island, Tasmania, Australia, for the period 1950 to 2012, with the aim to quantify the relationship between breeding parameters with large-scale climate indices in the Northern (i.e. Northern Pacific Index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and Southern Hemispheres (i.e. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode). Through the use of generalised linear models, we found that breeding participation among short-tailed shearwaters was affected by climate variability with a 12-mo temporal lag. Furthermore, breeding success decreased in years of increased rainfall at the colony. These findings demonstrate that both large-scale climate indices and local environmental conditions could explain some of the variability among breeding parameters of the short-tailed shearwater.

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Multi-decadal climate variability, New South Wales, Australia

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.2004.0437 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 49 (7) ◽

pp. 133-140 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

S.W. Franks

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

General Circulation ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

New South ◽

New South Wales ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Decadal Climate Variability ◽

South Wales

Traditional hydrological risk estimation has treated the observations of hydro-climatological extremes as being independent and identically distributed, implying a static climate risk. However, recent research has highlighted the persistence of multi-decadal epochs of distinct climate states across New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Climatological studies have also revealed multi-decadal variability in the magnitude and frequency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. In this paper, examples of multi-decadal variability are presented with regard to flood and drought risk. The causal mechanisms for the observed variability are then explored. Finally, it is argued that the insights into climate variability provide (a) useful lead time for forecasting seasonal hydrological risk, (b) a strong rationale for a new framework for hydrological design and (c) a strong example of natural climate variability for use in the testing of General Circulation Models of climate change.

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Spatial and temporal variability of the hydroxyl radical: Understanding the role of large-scale climate features and their influence on OH through its dynamical and photochemical drivers

10.5194/acp-2020-1192 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Daniel C. Anderson ◽

Bryan N. Duncan ◽

Arlene M. Fiore ◽

Colleen B. Baublitz ◽

Melanie B. Follette-Cook ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Hydroxyl Radical ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Satellite Observations ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

Modes Of Variability ◽

The Relationship ◽

Modes Of Climate Variability

Abstract. The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary atmospheric oxidant, responsible for removing many important trace gases, including methane, from the atmosphere. Although robust relationships between OH drivers and modes of climate variability have been shown, the underlying mechanisms between OH and these climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we use a chemical transport model to perform a 38-year simulation of atmospheric chemistry, in conjunction with satellite observations, to understand the relationship between tropospheric OH and ENSO, Northern Hemispheric modes of variability, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and monsoons. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression analyses show that ENSO is the dominant mode of global OH variability in the tropospheric column and upper troposphere, responsible for approximately 30 % of the total variance in boreal winter. Reductions in OH due to ENSO are centered over the tropical Pacific and Australia and can be as high as 10–15 % in the tropospheric column. The relationship between ENSO and OH is driven by changes in nitrogen oxides in the upper troposphere and changes in water vapor and O1D in the lower troposphere. While the spatial scale of the relationship between monsoons, other modes of variability, and OH are much smaller than ENSO, local changes in OH can be significantly larger than those caused by ENSO. These relationships also occur in multiple models that participated in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), suggesting that the dependence of OH interannual variability on these well-known modes of climate variability is robust. Finally, modeled relationships between ENSO and OH drivers – such as carbon monoxide, water vapor, and lightning – closely agree with satellite observations. The ability of satellite products to capture the relationship between OH drivers and ENSO provides an avenue to an indirect OH observation strategy and new constraints on OH variability.

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On the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factors

10.5194/esd-2019-74 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Xinnong Pan ◽

Geli Wang ◽

Peicai Yang ◽

Jun Wang ◽

Anastasios A. Tsonis

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Sunspot Cycle ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Intrinsic Variability ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Climate Modes

Abstract. The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes on various timescales play important roles in generating regional and global climate variability. Many efforts have been devoted to identify the relationships between the variations in climate modes and regional climate variability, but rarely explored the interconnections among these climate modes. Here we use climate indices to represent the variations in major climate modes and we examine the harmonic relationship among the driving forces of climate modes by the combination of Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) and wavelet analysis. We find that all of the significant peak-periods of driving-force signals in the climate indices can be represented as the harmonics of four base periods: 2.32 yr, 3.90 yr, 6.55 yr and 11.02 yr. We infer that the period of 2.32 yr is associated with the signal of Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The periods of 3.90 yr and 6.55 yr are connected with the intrinsic variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the period of 11.02 yr arises from the sunspot cycle. Results suggest that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations linked to QBO, ENSO and solar activities act as the key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors, highlighting the important roles of these three oscillations in the variability of current climate.

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The Forcing of Monthly Precipitation Variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal Cold Season

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00757.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (18) ◽

pp. 7038-7056 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Andrew Hoell ◽

Shraddhanand Shukla ◽

Mathew Barlow ◽

Forest Cannon ◽

Colin Kelley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Rossby Wave ◽

Rossby Waves ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Cold Season ◽

Precipitation Variability ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Southwest Asia

Abstract Southwest Asia, defined as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during the boreal cold season of November–April. The forcing of southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. This study examines the intermonthly differences in precipitation variability over southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November–April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November–April precipitation over southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific decadal variability (PDV), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the long-term change of global SST (LT). In contrast, the precipitation variability during the individual months of November–April is unrelated and is correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO, and LT in different combinations. Despite strong intermonthly differences in precipitation variability during November–April over southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric flow on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean meridional temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different from the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically forced–only modes of climate variability.

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