Dominant Controls of Cold-Season Precipitation Variability Over the High Mountains of Asia

A robust understanding of the sub-seasonal cold season (November–March) precipitation variability over the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) is currently lacking. Here, we identify dynamic and thermodynamic pathways through which natural modes of climate variability establish their teleconnections over the HMA. First, we identify evaporative sources that contribute to the cold season precipitation over the HMA and surroundings areas. The predominant moisture contribution comes from the mid-latitude regions including Mediterranean/Caspian Seas and Mediterranean land. Second, we establish that several tropical and extratropical forcing display a sub-seasonally fluctuating influence on the cold season precipitation distribution over the region, and given that many of them varyingly interact with each other, their impacts cannot be explained exclusively or at seasonal timescales. Lastly, a single set of evaporative sources cannot always be identified as the only determinant in propagating a remote teleconnection, because nature of moisture anomalies and its sources depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may ‘bridge’ proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.

Spatial and temporal variability in the hydroxyl (OH) radical: understanding the role of large-scale climate features and their influence on OH through its dynamical and photochemical drivers

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary atmospheric oxidant responsible for removing many important trace gases, including methane, from the atmosphere. Although robust relationships between OH drivers and modes of climate variability have been shown, the underlying mechanisms between OH and these climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we use a chemical transport model to perform a 38 year simulation of atmospheric chemistry, in conjunction with satellite observations, to understand the relationship between tropospheric OH and ENSO, Northern Hemispheric modes of variability, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and monsoons. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression analyses show that ENSO is the dominant mode of global OH variability in the tropospheric column and upper troposphere, responsible for approximately 30 % of the total variance in boreal winter. Reductions in OH due to El Niño are centered over the tropical Pacific and Australia and can be as high as 10 %–15 % in the tropospheric column. The relationship between ENSO and OH is driven by changes in nitrogen oxides in the upper troposphere and changes in water vapor and O1D in the lower troposphere. While the correlations between monsoons or other modes of variability and OH span smaller spatial scales than for ENSO, regional changes in OH can be significantly larger than those caused by ENSO. Similar relationships occur in multiple models that participated in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), suggesting that the dependence of OH interannual variability on these well-known modes of climate variability is robust. Finally, the spatial pattern and r2 values of correlation between ENSO and modeled OH drivers – such as carbon monoxide, water vapor, lightning, and, to a lesser extent, NO2 – closely agree with satellite observations. The ability of satellite products to capture the relationship between OH drivers and ENSO provides an avenue to an indirect OH observation strategy and new constraints on OH variability.

Are marine heatwaves increasing the likelihood of terrestrial heatwaves?

<p>Despite numerous studies that have examined terrestrial or marine heatwaves independently, little work has been done investigating any possible association between the two. Examination of a limited number of past events suggests that co-occurring terrestrial and marine heatwaves may have common drivers, or may interact with each other. For example, a recent study<sup>1</sup> identified common remote drivers behind the major marine heatwave that developed in the South Atlantic during the summer of 2013/14 and terrestrial heatwaves over South America. Co-occurring events could also potentially interact via local land-sea interactions, thereby altering the likelihood of these co-occurring events. This study will explore possible links between adjacent coastal marine and terrestrial heatwaves. We will investigate the likelihood of co-occurrence of terrestrial and marine heatwaves, using statistical analysis of observational temperature data. We will also investigate the mechanisms driving co-occurring events, including the local fluxes, synoptic conditions, and links to large scale modes of climate variability</p>

Synoptic climatology of southern Indian Ocean and paleoclimate proxy interpretation

<p>Weather systems in the southern Indian Ocean drive synoptic-scale precipitation, temperature and wind variability in East Antarctica, sub-Antarctic islands and southern Australia.  Over seasonal to decadal timescales, the mean condition associated with combinations of these synoptic weather patterns (e.g., extratropical cyclones, fronts and regions of high pressure) is often referred to as variability in the westerly wind belt or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The westerly wind belt is generally considered to be zonally symmetric around Antarctica however, on a daily timescale this is not the case. To capture the daily variability of regional weather systems, we used synoptic typing (Self-Organising Maps) to group weather patterns based on similar features, which are often lost when using monthly or seasonal mean fields. We identified nine key regional weather types based on anomaly pattern and strength. These include four meridional nodes, three mixed nodes, one zonal node and one transitional node. The meridional nodes are favourable for transporting warm, moist air masses to the subantarctic and Antarctic region, and are associated with increased precipitation and temperature where the systems interact with the Antarctic coastline.  These nodes have limited association with the SAM, especially during austral spring.  In contrast, the zonal and mixed nodes were strongly correlated with the SAM however, the regional synoptic representation of SAM positive conditions is not zonally symmetric and is represented by three separate nodes.  These different types of SAM positive conditions mean that the commonly used hemispheric Marshall index often fails to capture the regional variability in surface weather conditions in the southern Indian Ocean. Our results show the importance of considering different synoptic set ups of SAM conditions, particularly SAM positive, and identify conditions that are potentially missed by SAM variability (e.g., extreme precipitation events). Our results are particularly important to consider when interpreting SAM or westerly wind belt reconstructions in the study region (from ice cores, tree rings, or lake sediments).  Here we present a case study using the synoptic typing results to enhance our understanding of the Law Dome (East Antarctica) ice core record, focussing on links to large scale modes of climate variability and Australian hydroclimate.  These results enhance the usefulness of ice core proxies in coastal East Antarctica and assist with determining where and how it is appropriate to use coastal East Antarctic ice core records for reconstructions of large scale modes of climate variability (e.g. SAM and ENSO) and remote hydroclimate conditions.</p>

The Lorenz Energy Cycle: Trends and the Impact of Modes of Climate Variability

<p>The atmospheric circulation is driven by heat transport from the tropics to the polar regions, implying energy conversions between available potential and kinetic energy through various mechanisms. The processes of energy transformations can be quantitatively investigated in the global climate system through the Lorenz energy cycle formalism. In this study, we examine these variations and the impacts of modes of climate variability on the Lorenz energy cycle by using reanalysis data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JRA-55). We show that the atmospheric circulation is overall becoming more energetic and efficient. For instance, we find a statistically significant trend in the eddy available potential energy, especially in the transient eddy available potential energy in the Southern Hemisphere. We find significant trends in the conversion rates between zonal available potential and kinetic energy, consistent with an expansion of the Hadley cell, and in the conversion rates between eddy available potential and kinetic energy, suggesting an increase in mid-latitudinal baroclinic instability. We also show that planetary-scale waves dominate the stationary eddy energy, while synoptic-scale waves dominate the transient eddy energy with a significant increasing trend. Our results suggest that interannual variability of the Lorenz energy cycle is determined by modes of climate variability. We find that significant global and hemispheric energy fluctuations are caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, and the meridional temperature gradient over the Southern Hemisphere.</p>

The coastal salinity budget of the Southeastern Pacific Ocean

<p>As one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, the Southeastern Pacific Ocean (SPO) coastal zone is economically important to the countries of the region. Dynamically the SPO coastal zone is influenced by the Patagonian Icefields and the large-scale circulation of the open Pacific Ocean, both of which are sensitive to climate change and modes of climate variability, particularly El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Due to a paucity of observations, however, the dynamics of this region are still poorly understood.  Here we use the coastal salinity budget as a means of investigating the dynamics of the SPO coastal zone and its relationship with the deeper ocean and Patagonian Icefields, through a combination of high-resolution ocean modelling, satellite observations, and reanalysis data. First, the long-term trends and interannual fluctuations, and their relationship to modes of climate variability are presented. Next, the salinity budget is examined, and the primary balances are quantified. We find that the salinity is primarily governed by the balance between freshwater input and horizontal advection. Finally, we assess the ability of satellite and in-situ observations and reanalysis products to diagnose SPO coastal salinity budget.</p>

Spatial and temporal variability of the hydroxyl radical: Understanding the role of large-scale climate features and their influence on OH through its dynamical and photochemical drivers

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary atmospheric oxidant, responsible for removing many important trace gases, including methane, from the atmosphere. Although robust relationships between OH drivers and modes of climate variability have been shown, the underlying mechanisms between OH and these climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we use a chemical transport model to perform a 38-year simulation of atmospheric chemistry, in conjunction with satellite observations, to understand the relationship between tropospheric OH and ENSO, Northern Hemispheric modes of variability, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and monsoons. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression analyses show that ENSO is the dominant mode of global OH variability in the tropospheric column and upper troposphere, responsible for approximately 30 % of the total variance in boreal winter. Reductions in OH due to ENSO are centered over the tropical Pacific and Australia and can be as high as 10–15 % in the tropospheric column. The relationship between ENSO and OH is driven by changes in nitrogen oxides in the upper troposphere and changes in water vapor and O1D in the lower troposphere. While the spatial scale of the relationship between monsoons, other modes of variability, and OH are much smaller than ENSO, local changes in OH can be significantly larger than those caused by ENSO. These relationships also occur in multiple models that participated in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), suggesting that the dependence of OH interannual variability on these well-known modes of climate variability is robust. Finally, modeled relationships between ENSO and OH drivers – such as carbon monoxide, water vapor, and lightning – closely agree with satellite observations. The ability of satellite products to capture the relationship between OH drivers and ENSO provides an avenue to an indirect OH observation strategy and new constraints on OH variability.