scholarly journals Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Shao ◽  
Yingji Shan
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Almost All ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

SummaryBackgroundThe 2019 new coronavirus, “2019-nCoV”, was discovered from Wuhan Viral Pneumonia cases in December 2019, and was named by the World Health Organization on January 12, 2020. In the early stage, people knows little about the 2019-nCoV virus was not clear, and the spread period was encountering China’s annual spring migration, which made the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan to almost all provinces in China.MethodsThis study builds a SEIRD model that considers the movement of people across regions, revealing the effects of three measures on controlling the spread of the epidemic.Based on MATLAB R2017a, computational experiments were performed to simulate the epidemic prevention and control measures.FindingsThe research results show that current prevention and control measures in China are very necessary. This study further validates the concerns of international and domestic experts regarding asymptomatic transmission (E-status).InterpretationThe results of this study are applicable to explore the impact of the implementation of relevant measures on the prevention and control of epidemic spread, and to identify key individuals that may exist during the spread of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽  
Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽  
Himer Avila-George ◽  
orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽  
Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Entry Points ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

scholarly journals Improving COVID-19 response: redirecting risk communication efforts towards equity issues

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Yisel Hernández Barrios ◽  
Luis Fonte Galindo ◽  
María del Carmen Zabala Argüelles ◽  
Dennis Pérez Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Health Problem ◽  
Social Communication ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Equity Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is, to date, the health problem with the highest impact in the 21st century. The World Health Organization has recommended several prevention and control measures to deal with this pandemic. In this context, social communication plays a key role. In this article we argue that the potential of communication efforts to close the gaps in the COVID-19 response worldwide won´t be fully accomplished until they do address equity-related issues.

scholarly journals Questionnaire Survey on the Current Situation and Experience in Prevention and Control Measures at Urology Clinics During the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Liang Zhu ◽  
Hai-Hong Jiang ◽  
Ming-Hui Jiang ◽  
Wen-Li Liu ◽  
Zi-Lu Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Questionnaire Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

COVID-19, the coronavirus disease 2019; SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus 2; ACE2, angiotensin converting enzyme 2; S protein, spiked glycoprotein; TMPRSS2, transmembrane serine protease 2; WHO, World Health Organization.Purpose: Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, has been viably controlled in China, a new normal in healthcare strategies has become standard in China and worldwide. We conducted a questionnaire study to disseminate the experience from China in terms of urology outpatient prevention and control measures under standardized prevention policies against COVID-19.Participants and Methods: From May 3, 2020 to June 25, 2020, we conducted an anonymous cross-sectional questionnaire study, focused on the status of and experiences with outpatient urology prevention and control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The targeted respondents were urologists in mainland China, covering all levels of hospitals and clinics.Results: A total of 216 (97%) valid responses were collected. We found that 183 (85%) respondents were from outside of Hubei province in China. One-hundred-and-fifty-eight (73%) respondents believed that SARS-CoV-2 could be detected in urine, and that protection against urine exposure was needed. Over 80% of respondents recommended WeChat application or similar online video meetings for virtual outpatient consultations. The suggested flowcharts and recommendations to prevent new cases were easy to understand and approved by most physicians, which could provide reference for outpatient prevention and control. We still need to make adequate preparations under the new normal of the COVID-19 Epidemic, especially for those suspected of being infected.Conclusions: Although the scientific validation of the questionnaire is limited, it provides a first snapshot of the experiences relating to the prevention and control measures in urology clinics in China, and can inform future policies in this field.

scholarly journals Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Sun ◽  
Guozhong He ◽  
Ninghao Huang ◽  
Hongyu Chen ◽  
Shuwei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Proper Management ◽  
Outbreak Areas ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Gender ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent.Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach.Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province.Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.

scholarly journals Changes in Prevalence of Nosocomial Infection Pre- and Post-COVID-19 pandemic from a Tertiary Hospital in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunmei Su ◽  
Zhiqin Zhang ◽  
Xu Zhao ◽  
Hanlin Peng ◽  
Yi Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nosocomial Infection ◽  
Nosocomial Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Oral Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Nosocomial infections (NIs) are an important cause of mortality, and increasing evidence reveals that the prevalence of NIs can be reduced through effective prevention and control measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic on NIs.Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the prevalence of NIs before and after COVID-19 pandemic for six months in the Children’s Hospital of Soochow University.Results: A total of 39,914 patients in 2019 and 34,645 patients in 2020 were admitted to the hospital during the study. There were 1.39% (481/34645) of patients with NIs in 2020, which was significantly lower than the 2.56% (1021/39914) of patients in 2019. The rate of critical and fatal cases was also decreased. Except for the ICU, the prevalence of nosocomial infection in most departments decreased from 2019 to 2020. Regarding the source of infections, a significant reduction was mainly observed in respiratory (0.99% vs 0.42%, p=0.000) and digestive tract (0.63% vs 0.14%, p=0.000). The microorganism analysis of respiratory infections indicated an obvious decline in acinetobacters and fungi. The most significant decline of pathogens in gastrointestinal infections was observed for rotavirus. The comparison of catheter-related nosocomial infections between 2019 and 2020 did not show significant differences. Conclusions: The prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced the nosocomial infection in almost all departments, except the ICU, mainly regarding respiratory, gastrointestinal, and oral infections, while catheter-related infections did not show any differences.

scholarly journals The impact of management practices to prevent and control mycotoxins in the European food supply chain: MyToolBox project results

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-154
Author(s):  
M. Focker ◽  
H.J. van der Fels-Klerx ◽  
N. Magan ◽  
S.G. Edwards ◽  
M. Grahovac ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Crop Losses ◽  
Mycotoxin Contamination ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The presence of mycotoxins in cereals has led to large economic losses in Europe. In the course of the European project MyToolBox, prevention and control measures to reduce mycotoxin contamination in cereals were developed. This study aimed to estimate the impact of these prevention and control measures on both the reduction in crop losses and the increased volume of crops suitable for food and/or feed. It focused on the following measures: the use of fungicides during wheat cultivation, the use of resistant maize cultivars and/or biocontrol during maize cultivation, the use of real time sensors in storage silos, the use of innovative milling strategies during the pasta making process, and the employment of degrading enzymes during the process of bioethanol and Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) production. The impact assessment was based on the annual volume of cereals produced, the annual levels of mycotoxin contamination, and experimental data on the prevention and control measures collected in the course of the MyToolBox project. Results are expressed in terms of reduced volumes of cereals lost, or as additional volumes of cereals available for food meeting the current European legal limits. Results showed that a reduction in crop losses as well as an increase in the volume of crops suitable as food and/or feed is feasible with each proposed prevention or control measure along the supply chain. The impact was the largest in areas and in years with the highest mycotoxin contamination levels but would have less impact in years with low mycotoxin levels. In further research, the impact assessment may be validated using future data from more years and European sites. Decision makers in the food and feed supply chain can use this impact assessment to decide on the relevant prevention and control strategies to apply.

scholarly journals The spatial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China under the prevention and control measures at the early outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianli Liu ◽  
Yuan Zhou ◽  
Chuanyu Ye ◽  
Guangming Zhang ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Since severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was firstly reported in Wuhan City, China in December 2019, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) that is caused by SARS-CoV-2 is predominantly spread from person-to-person on worldwide scales. Now, COVID-19 is a non-traditional and major public health issue the world is facing, and the outbreak is a global pandemic. The strict prevention and control measures have mitigated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and shown positive changes with important progress in China. But prevention and control tasks remain arduous for the world. The objective of this study is to discuss the difference of spatial transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in China at the early outbreak stage with resolute efforts. Simultaneously, the COVID-19 trend of China at the early time was described from the statistical perspective using a mathematical model to evaluate the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures. Methods In this study, the accumulated number of confirmed cases publicly reported by the National Health Committee of the People’s Republic of China (CNHC) from January 20 to February 11, 2020, were grouped into three partly overlapping regions: Chinese mainland including Hubei province, Hubei province alone, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, respectively. A generalized-growth model (GGM) was used to estimate the basic reproduction number to evaluate the transmissibility in different spatial locations. The prevention and control of COVID-19 in the early stage were analyzed based on the number of new cases of confirmed infections daily reported. Results Results indicated that the accumulated number of confirmed cases reported from January 20 to February 11, 2020, is well described by the GGM model with a larger correlation coefficient than 0.99. When the accumulated number of confirmed cases is well fitted by an exponential function, the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 of the 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland, Hubei province, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, is 2.68, 6.46 and 2.18, respectively. The consecutive decline of the new confirmed cases indicated that the prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government have contained the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a short period. Conclusions The estimated basic reproduction number thorough GGM model can reflect the spatial difference of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China at the early stage. The strict prevention and control measures of SARS-CoV-2 taken at the early outbreak can effectively reduce the new confirmed cases outside Hubei and have mitigated the spread and yielded positive results since February 2, 2020. The research results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 in China was sustaining localized at the early outbreak stage and has been gradually curbed by China’s resolute efforts.

scholarly journals Prediction of Different Interventions on the Burden of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis in China: a Dynamic Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ao Xu ◽  
Ze-xuan Wen ◽  
Yue Wang ◽  
Wei-bing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Predictive Analysis ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Cure Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background. Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top ten causes of death worldwide. The World Health Organization adopted the “End TB Strategy”, whose goal is to end the global TB epidemic by 2035. However, achieving this goal will be difficult using current prevention and control measures.Methods. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model that distinguishes drug-sensitive (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) TB in the entire Chinese population was established. Goodness-of-fit tests and sensitivity analyses were used to assess model performance. Predictive analysis was performed to assess the effect of different prevention and control strategies on DR-TB and achieving the goal of the End TB Strategy: 90% fewer cases of DR-TB by 2035.Results. We used parameter fitting to determine the basic reproduction number of the model as R0 =0.6993. Chi-square test results indicated good model fits for the reported incidences of DS-TB (χ2=0.144, P=1.000) and DR-TB (χ2=0.076, P=1.000). The predictive analysis led to four major projections for the number of cases by 2035. First, if the transmission rate of DR-TB patients reaches 0 during the infectious period, there will be 208,754 fewer cases (failure to achieve to goal). Second, if the progression rate of latently infected people reaches 10%, there will be 255,075 fewer cases (92.2% lower than in 2015). Third, if the overall treatment and cure rate of patients with DS-TB improves to 100%, there will be 150,482 fewer cases (failure to achieve the goal). Fourth, if the cure rate of DR-TB increases to 40%, there will be 253,198 fewer cases (91.5% lower than in 2015).Conclusions. We assessed several prevention and control measures for DR-TB. Interventions that target acquired DR and improvement of the cure rate of DS-TB have limited efficacy. However, interventions that target primary DR-TB, such as reducing the probability of transmission and the rate of disease progression in patients with DR-TB, have better efficacy. Improving treatment compliance and the cure rate of patients with DR-TB can also contribute to attaining the goal of the End TB Strategy.

The epidemic burden on prisons in Lombardy (Italy) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: the transmission and measures of prevention in detention facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruggero Giuliani ◽  
Sara Mazzilli ◽  
Teresa Sebastiani ◽  
Giorgia Cocca ◽  
Raffaella Bortolotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Detention Facilities

Purpose Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community highlighted a potential risk of epidemics occurring inside prisons. Consequently, specific operational guidelines were promptly released, and containment measures were quickly implemented in prisons. This paper aims to describe the spread of COVID-19 in detention facilities within the Lombardy region of Italy during March to July 2020, and the impact of the prevention and control measures implemented. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive retrospective analysis of case distribution was performed for all COVID-19 cases identified among people in detention (PiD) and prison officers (POs). A comparison of the epidemic burden affecting different populations and a correlation analysis between the number of cases that occurred and prevention measures implemented were also carried out. Findings From this study, it emerged that POs were at a high risk of contracting COVID-19. This study observed a delay in the occurrence of cases among PiD and substantial heterogeneity in the size of outbreaks across different prisons. Correlation between reported cases among PiD and registered sick leave taken by POs suggested the latter contributed to introducing the infection into prison settings. Finally, number of cases among PiD inversely correlated with the capacity of each prison to identify and set up dedicated areas for medical isolation. Originality/value Prevention and control measures when adopted in a timely manner were effective in protecting PiD. According to the findings, POs are a population at high risk for acquiring and transmitting COVID-19 and should be prioritized for testing, active case finding and vaccination. This study highlights the critical importance of including prison settings within emergency preparedness plans.

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