scholarly journals Six scenarios of non-medical interventions in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

Author(s):  
Peter Kempf

We investigate six scenarios spanning main parts of the decision space of non-medical interventions against the CoV-2 epidemic in Germany. Based on the notion of interventions-lifting we classify and evaluate the scenarios by five attributes (indicators): amount of interventions-lifting, death numbers, Public Health Care capacity, population immunity, peak dates of infections. For quantitative reasoning we use a simulated modified SEIR-model calibrated with actual data. We identify margins for intervention-liftings wrt. 13.05.2020 and discuss the relation to the effective reproduction number with a 6d-generation time. We show that, in order to constrain death numbers comparable to a strong Influenza epidemic, there is only a small corridor of 16% of possible liftings, with an additional 4% margin contributed by automated contact tracing. We show also that there is a much broader corridor of 50%+18%, though not overloading critical Public Health Care capacity, implying high death numbers.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasanain Abdulhameed Odhar ◽  
Salam Waheed Ahjel

Public health care capacity is currently overwhelmed by pandemic outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019. This respiratory disease is a real threat especially for those elderly people with comorbidities. The disease can progress into acute respiratory distress syndrome which can be fatal. No vaccine or drug had been developed against any human coronaviruses due to cessation of previous epidemics and withdrawal of assigned funds. Currently, humanity is in a real challenge to accelerate the development of effective drug and vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Till now, computational approaches have played a substantial role for analysis of viral structure and also development of both drug and vaccine candidates in an accelerated pace. Some of these therapeutic designs have found their way into clinical trials. Here, we will overview different immuno-informatics attempts, targets and ideas as possible trends to counteract coronavirus disease 2019.


mBio ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Dombach ◽  
Joaquin L. J. Quintana ◽  
Corrella S. Detweiler

Untreatable bacterial infections are a critical public health care issue. In addition to increasing antibiotic resistance, bacteria that are in slow-growing or nongrowing states, or that live inside mammalian cells, are typically insensitive to clinical antibiotics and therefore difficult to eradicate.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Liang ◽  
Lun Xiao ◽  
Xue-Li Yang ◽  
Xuefei Zhong ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gill Kazevman ◽  
Marck Mercado ◽  
Jennifer Hulme ◽  
Andrea Somers

UNSTRUCTURED Vulnerable populations have been identified as having higher infection rates and poorer COVID-19 related outcomes, likely due to their inability to readily access primary care, follow public health directives and adhere to self-isolation guidelines. As a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many health care services have adopted new digital solutions, relying on phone and internet connectivity. Yet, persons who are digitally inaccessible, such as those struggling with poverty or homelessness, are often unable to utilize these services. In response to this newly highlighted social disparity known as “digital health inequity”, emergency physicians at the University Health Network, Toronto, initiated a program called “PHONE CONNECT”. This novel approach attempts to improve patients’ access to health care, information and social services, as well as improve their ability to adhere to public health directives (social isolation and contact tracing). While similar programs addressing the same emerging issues have been recently described in the media, this is the first time phones are provided as a health care intervention in an emergency department. This innovative ED point-of-care intervention may have a significant impact on improving the health outcomes for vulnerable people during the COVID-19 pandemic, and even beyond it.


2021 ◽  
pp. 194173812110215
Author(s):  
Gillian R. Currie ◽  
Raymond Lee ◽  
Amanda M. Black ◽  
Luz Palacios-Derflingher ◽  
Brent E. Hagel ◽  
...  

Background: After a national policy change in 2013 disallowing body checking in Pee Wee ice hockey games, the rate of injury was reduced by 50% in Alberta. However, the effect on associated health care costs has not been examined previously. Hypothesis: A national policy removing body checking in Pee Wee (ages 11-12 years) ice hockey games will reduce injury rates, as well as costs. Study Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside cohort study. Level of Evidence: Level 3. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted alongside a cohort study comparing rates of game injuries in Pee Wee hockey games in Alberta in a season when body checking was allowed (2011-2012) with a season when it was disallowed after a national policy change (2013-2014). The effectiveness measure was the rate of game injuries per 1000 player-hours. Costs were estimated based on associated health care use from both the publicly funded health care system and privately paid health care cost perspectives. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted using bootstrapping. Results: Disallowing body checking significantly reduced the rate of game injuries (−2.21; 95% CI [−3.12, −1.31] injuries per 1000 player-hours). We found no statistically significant difference in public health care system (−$83; 95% CI [−$386, $220]) or private health care costs (−$70; 95% CI [−$198, $57]) per 1000 player-hours. The probability that the policy of disallowing body checking was dominant (with both fewer injuries and lower costs) from the perspective of the public health care system and privately paid health care was 78% and 92%, respectively. Conclusion: Given the significant reduction in injuries, combined with lower public health care system and private costs in the large majority of iterations in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, our findings support the policy change disallowing body checking in ice hockey in 11- and 12-year-old ice hockey leagues.


2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (23) ◽  
pp. 2955-2968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Iacone ◽  
Steve Martin ◽  
Luigi Siciliani ◽  
Peter C. Smith

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