Estimating excess visual loss in people with neovascular age-related macular degeneration during the COVID-19 pandemic
Objectives: To report the reduction in new neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) referrals during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the impact of delayed treatment on visual outcomes at one year. Design: Retrospective clinical audit and simulation model. Setting: Multiple UK NHS ophthalmology centres. Participants: Data on the reduction in new nAMD referrals was obtained from four NHS Trusts in England comparing April 2020 to April 2019. To estimate the potential impact on one-year visual outcomes, a stratified bootstrap simulation model was developed drawing on an electronic medical records dataset of 20,825 nAMD eyes from 27 NHS Trusts. Main outcome measures: Simulated mean visual acuity and proportions of eyes with vision ≤6/60, ≤6/24 and ≥6/12 at one year under four hypothetical scenarios: no treatment delay, 3, 6 and 9-month treatment delays. Estimated additional number of eyes with vision ≤6/60 at one year nationally. Results: The number of nAMD referrals at four major eye treatment hospital groups based in England dropped on average by 72% (range 65 to 87%) in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Simulated one-year visual outcomes for 1000 nAMD eyes with a 3-month treatment delay suggested an increase in the proportion of eyes with vision ≤6/60 from 15.5% (13.2 to 17.9) to 23.3% (20.7 to25.9), and a decrease in the proportion of eyes with vision ≥6/12 (driving vision) from 35.1% (32.1 to 38.1) to 26.4% (23.8 to29.2). Outcomes worsened incrementally with longer modelled delays. Assuming nAMD referrals are reduced to this level at the national level for only one month, these simulated results suggest an additional 186-365 eyes with vision ≤6/60 at one-year with even a short treatment delay. Conclusions: We report a large decrease in nAMD referrals during the first month of COVID-19 lockdown and provide an important public health message regarding the risk of delayed treatment. As a conservative estimate, a treatment delay of 3 months could lead to a >50% relative increase in the number of eyes with vision ≤6/60 and 25% relative decrease in the number of eyes with driving vision at one year.