scholarly journals Forecasting virus diffusion with simple Bayesian forecast combination

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Hans Franses
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Bayesian Forecast ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Combined Forecasts

AbstractThere are various diffusion models for S shaped processes like virus diffusion and these models are typically not nested. In this note it is proposed to combine the forecasts using a simple Bayesian forecast combination algorithm. An illustration to daily data on cumulative Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands shows the ease of use of the algorithm and the accuracy of the thus combined forecasts.

scholarly journals SIMPLE BAYESIAN FORECAST COMBINATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050016
Author(s):  
PHILIP HANS FRANSES
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Bayesian Forecast ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Combined Forecasts

In this paper, it is proposed to combine the forecasts using a simple Bayesian forecast combination algorithm. The algorithm is applied to forecasts from three non-nested diffusion models for S shaped processes like virus diffusion. An illustration to daily data on first-wave cumulative Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands shows the ease of use of the algorithm and the accuracy of the newly combined forecasts.

scholarly journals Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 884-919
Author(s):  
Ulrich Gunter
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Hotel Room ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Rolling Windows ◽  
Combined Forecasts ◽  
Box Cox Transformation

The present study employs daily data made available by the STR SHARE Center covering the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 January 2020 for six Viennese hotel classes and their total. The forecast variable of interest is hotel room demand. As forecast models, (1) Seasonal Naïve, (2) Error Trend Seasonal (ETS), (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), (4) Trigonometric Seasonality, Box–Cox Transformation, ARMA Errors, Trend and Seasonal Components (TBATS), (5) Seasonal Neural Network Autoregression (Seasonal NNAR), and (6) Seasonal NNAR with an external regressor (seasonal naïve forecast of the inflation-adjusted ADR) are employed. Forecast evaluation is carried out for forecast horizons h = 1, 7, 30, and 90 days ahead based on rolling windows. After conducting forecast encompassing tests, (a) mean, (b) median, (c) regression-based weights, (d) Bates–Granger weights, and (e) Bates–Granger ranks are used as forecast combination techniques. In the relative majority of cases (i.e., in 13 of 28), combined forecasts based on Bates–Granger weights and on Bates–Granger ranks provide the highest level of forecast accuracy in terms of typical measures. Finally, the employed methodology represents a fully replicable toolkit for practitioners in terms of both forecast models and forecast combination techniques.

Design and Proof of Principle of a Novel Drip Chamber

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Else F. de Ridder ◽  
Max D. B. Hoeboer ◽  
Anne F. D. M. van Dam ◽  
Job van den Bosch
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Air Bubbles ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Proof Of Principle

Abstract More than a million times every year, an ambulance is deployed in the Netherlands. Of these instances, 87% of the patients will be administered intravenous (IV) fluids. In the current situation, the IV bag always needs to be held above the patient to function properly. This action requires an extra pair of hands, which is very inefficient and can result in the loss of precious time that could otherwise be directed at the patient. Besides needing an extra pair of hands, there is also a chance of air bubbles entering the patient through the drip feed. The novel drip chamber design proposed in this paper aims to solve these problems, as it enables the IV bag to be placed in any orientation and in any manner relative to the patient with a negligible number of air bubbles entering the drip feed. This novel drip chamber was tested in an experimental setting in different orientations and at different flowrates. From the test results, it can be concluded that at a clinical relevant flowrate, a negligible number of air bubbles were present within the IV system. Because of the ease of use of the novel drip chamber and the fact that it is fool-proof, cost-efficient, and shows promising test results, future research on several aspects could make this product a promising addition to health care.

Evaluating Drivers of Fintech Adoption in the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110274
Author(s):  
Rashedul Hasan ◽  
Muhammad Ashfaq ◽  
Lingli Shao
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Perceived Usefulness ◽  
Mobile Payment ◽  
Perceived Ease Of Use ◽  
Quantitative Research Methods ◽  
Mobile Payments ◽  
Main Factors

The development of smartphones and mobile internet technologies has promoted the development of mobile payments worldwide. The core purpose of this study is to ascertain what the main factors are which affect Dutch customers’ adoption and experience of mobile payments. This study first addresses the concepts of mobile payments and customer experience and then explores the current Dutch financial and banking systems, before attempting to understand the recent researches worldwide on mobile payments. Based on quantitative research methods, the study examines the factors that influence the adoption and experience of mobile payments and the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on payment methods due to social distancing rules in the Netherlands. It finds that perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, safety and trust are the main factors that affect the adoption of mobile payments, and mobile-payment providers need to improve technical protection and offer some benefits to boost the mobile-payment business. The COVID-19 outbreak has caused the decline of cash payments and the increase of contactless payments in the Netherlands; mobile payments ensure people’s health and help slow down the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Innovation adoption of employees in the logistics sector in the Netherlands: The role of workplace innovation

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarina Putnik ◽  
Peter Oeij ◽  
Stephen Dhondt ◽  
Wouter Van der Torre ◽  
Ernest De Vroome ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Innovation Adoption ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Positive Perception ◽  
Innovation Development ◽  
Actual Use ◽  
Innovative Behaviour ◽  
Workplace Innovation

In this study we examine individual behavioural and organisational predictors of innovation adoption amongemployees in the transport and logistics sector in the Netherlands. The framework of the study is based on theories of planned behaviour and workplace innovation.  Based on a survey of 224 respondents, we see that employees who are expressing innovative behaviour, are feeling engaged in the process of innovation development and implementation, and are stimulated to contribute in the team or department’s meetings, also have a positive perception of innovation. Ease of use and subjective norm are key elements related to the actual use of innovation, i.e., innovation adoption. The role of workplace innovation, that is engagement of employees in decision making and giving them voice in the process of innovation development and innovation, is highly relevant for successful implementation of innovation.

scholarly journals An A Useful Model for Rainwater Catchment System Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-97
Author(s):  
James Niffenegger ◽  
Avery Meyer ◽  
Christopher Lombardo
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Storage Volume ◽  
Multiple Structures ◽  
One Year ◽  
Local Storage ◽  
Improved Accuracy ◽  
Volume Size

Choosing a storage volume size for a rainwater catchment project is difficult because the overall volume needs to be large enough to meet the demand of users but not so high that it is never completely filled, which would waste money and space in the community. This newly developed Excel-based model can simplify choosing appropriate tank sizes for a rainwater catchment project by projecting the water availability in storage at multiple locations over the course of a year. For ease of use, the user can input monthly data or daily data for improved accuracy. This tool also incorporates the ability to include adjustable daily demand, to distribute demand over multiple structures, to account for tank overflow, and to increase demand at other locations if one of them runs out of water. The water level at each location over one year and the local storage volume are shown on a plot, making it easy to determine what storage volume is necessary to provide enough water for the community. This tool was originally developed to determine appropriate storage volumes for a rainwater catchment project in Mkutani, Tanzania and has been adapted for general use.

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