scholarly journals COVID-19 incidence and R decreased on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the Test, Trace, Isolate programme

Author(s):  
Michelle Kendall ◽  
Luke Milsom ◽  
Lucie Abeler-Dorner ◽  
Chris Wymant ◽  
Luca Ferretti ◽  
...  

In May 2020 the UK introduced a Test, Trace, Isolate programme in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included Version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. We used COVID-19 daily case data to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number R for each of 150 Upper Tier Local Authorities in England, and at the National level, before and after the launch of the programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and Maximum-Likelihood methods to estimate R, and compared the Isle of Wight to other areas using a synthetic control method. We observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch. These results are robust across each of our approaches. Our results show that the sub-epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled significantly more effectively than the sub-epidemics of most other Upper Tier Local Authorities, changing from having the third highest reproduction number R (of 150) before the intervention to the tenth lowest afterwards. The data is not yet available to establish a causal link. However, the findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of this reduction, as these might translate into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination becomes available.

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien Ashby ◽  
Natalie Borman ◽  
James Burton ◽  
Richard Corbett ◽  
Andrew Davenport ◽  
...  

Abstract This guideline is written primarily for doctors and nurses working in dialysis units and related areas of medicine in the UK, and is an update of a previous version written in 2009. It aims to provide guidance on how to look after patients and how to run dialysis units, and provides standards which units should in general aim to achieve. We would not advise patients to interpret the guideline as a rulebook, but perhaps to answer the question: “what does good quality haemodialysis look like?” The guideline is split into sections: each begins with a few statements which are graded by strength (1 is a firm recommendation, 2 is more like a sensible suggestion), and the type of research available to back up the statement, ranging from A (good quality trials so we are pretty sure this is right) to D (more like the opinion of experts than known for sure). After the statements there is a short summary explaining why we think this, often including a discussion of some of the most helpful research. There is then a list of the most important medical articles so that you can read further if you want to – most of this is freely available online, at least in summary form. A few notes on the individual sections: This section is about how much dialysis a patient should have. The effectiveness of dialysis varies between patients because of differences in body size and age etc., so different people need different amounts, and this section gives guidance on what defines “enough” dialysis and how to make sure each person is getting that. Quite a bit of this section is very technical, for example, the term “eKt/V” is often used: this is a calculation based on blood tests before and after dialysis, which measures the effectiveness of a single dialysis session in a particular patient. This section deals with “non-standard” dialysis, which basically means anything other than 3 times per week. For example, a few people need 4 or more sessions per week to keep healthy, and some people are fine with only 2 sessions per week – this is usually people who are older, or those who have only just started dialysis. Special considerations for children and pregnant patients are also covered here. This section deals with membranes (the type of “filter” used in the dialysis machine) and “HDF” (haemodiafiltration) which is a more complex kind of dialysis which some doctors think is better. Studies are still being done, but at the moment we think it’s as good as but not better than regular dialysis. This section deals with fluid removal during dialysis sessions: how to remove enough fluid without causing cramps and low blood pressure. Amongst other recommendations we advise close collaboration with patients over this. This section deals with dialysate, which is the fluid used to “pull” toxins out of the blood (it is sometimes called the “bath”). The level of things like potassium in the dialysate is important, otherwise too much or too little may be removed. There is a section on dialysate buffer (bicarbonate) and also a section on phosphate, which occasionally needs to be added into the dialysate. This section is about anticoagulation (blood thinning) which is needed to stop the circuit from clotting, but sometimes causes side effects. This section is about certain safety aspects of dialysis, not seeking to replace well-established local protocols, but focussing on just a few where we thought some national-level guidance would be useful. This section draws together a few aspects of dialysis which don’t easily fit elsewhere, and which impact on how dialysis feels to patients, rather than the medical outcome, though of course these are linked. This is where home haemodialysis and exercise are covered. There is an appendix at the end which covers a few aspects in more detail, especially the mathematical ideas. Several aspects of dialysis are not included in this guideline since they are covered elsewhere, often because they are aspects which affect non-dialysis patients too. This includes: anaemia, calcium and bone health, high blood pressure, nutrition, infection control, vascular access, transplant planning, and when dialysis should be started.


2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 201-207
Author(s):  
Peter Phillips ◽  
Iain Darby ◽  
Louise Phillips ◽  
Ashley Wicks

Background/Aims The UK Government piloted a COVID-19 digital contact tracing smartphone app on the Isle of Wight, England, in June 2020 in attempt to contain the spread of the virus. This study aimed to investigate the factors that affected the decision to download the app among individuals in the Isle of Wight. Methods Online questionnaires were distributed over social media to the sample population. Quantitative data were analysed, both descriptively and using a Chi-square or Fisher's test. Qualitative data were analysed through content analysis. Results Overall, 74.2% of participants downloaded the COVID-19 app, citing compliance, protection and fighting the pandemic or returning to normal as their main reasons. There was a significant negative correlation between having concerns about the app and downloading the app (P=<0.01). Concerns were split into the three themes of privacy or data security concerns, technology issues and increased complacency. There was a significant negative correlation between being in a COVID-19 high-risk group and downloading the app (P=0.042). Conclusions Concerns about the COVID-19 app, particularly in terms of its security, significantly affected whether participants were likely to download it. The results provide insight into factors influencing mass public health behaviours and can form the basis for future research into app-based interventions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  

AbstractBackgroundLocal estimates of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in England became increasingly heterogeneous during April and May 2021. This may have been attributable to the spread of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. This paper documents real-time analysis that aimed to investigate the association between changes in the proportion of positive cases that were S-gene positive, an indicator of the Delta variant against a background of the previously predominant Alpha variant, and the estimated time-varying Rt at the level of upper-tier local authorities (UTLA).MethodWe explored the relationship between the proportion of samples that were S-gene positive and the Rt of test-positive cases over time from the 23 February 2021 to the 25 May 2021. Effective reproduction numbers were estimated using the EpiNow2 R package independently for each local authority using two different estimates of the generation time. We then fit a range of regression models to estimate a multiplicative relationship between S-gene positivity and weekly mean Rt estimate.ResultsWe found evidence of an association between increased mean Rt estimates and the proportion of S-gene positives across all models evaluated with the magnitude of the effect increasing as model flexibility was decreased. Models that adjusted for either national level or NHS region level time-varying residuals were found to fit the data better, suggesting potential unexplained confounding.ConclusionsOur results indicated that even after adjusting for time-varying residuals between NHS regions, S-gene positivity was associated with an increase in the effective reproduction number of COVID-19. These findings were robust across a range of models and generation time assumptions, though the specific effect size was variable depending on the assumptions used. The lower bound of the estimated effect indicated that the reproduction number of Delta was above 1 in almost all local authorities throughout the period of investigation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Wei Chu ◽  
W Townsend

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Most U.S. states have passed medical marijuana laws. In this paper, we study the effects of these laws on violent and property crime. We first estimate models that control for city fixed effects and flexible city-specific time trends. To supplement this regression analysis, we use the synthetic control method which can relax the parallel trend assumption and better account for heterogeneous policy effects. Both the regression analysis and the synthetic control method suggest no causal effects of medical marijuana laws on violent or property crime at the national level. We also find no strong effects within individual states, except for in California where the medical marijuana law reduced both violent and property crime by 20%.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J Willis ◽  
Allen Wright ◽  
Victoria Bramfitt ◽  
Harry Conn ◽  
Robyn Talyor

We augment the well-known susceptible - infected - recovered - deceased (SIRD) epidemiological model to include vaccination dynamics, implemented as a piecewise continuous simulation. We calibrate this model to reported case data in the UK at a national level. Our modelling approach decouples the inherent characteristics of the infection from the degree of human interaction (as defined by the effective reproduction number, Re). This allows us to detect and infer a change in the characteristic of the infection, for example the emergence of the Kent variant, We find that that the infection rate constant (k) increases by around 89% as a result of the B.1.1.7 (Kent) COVID-19 variant in England. Through retrospective analysis and modelling of early epidemic case data (between March 2020 and May 2020) we estimate that ~1.2M COVID-19 infections were unreported in the early phase of the epidemic in the UK. We also obtain an estimate of the basic reproduction number as, R0=3.23. We use our model to assess the UK Government's roadmap for easing the third national lockdown as a result of the current vaccination programme. To do this we use our estimated model parameters and a future forecast of the daily vaccination rates of the next few months. Our modelling predicts an increased number of daily cases as NPIs are lifted in May and June 2021. We quantify this increase in terms of the vaccine rollout rate and in particular the percentage vaccine uptake rate of eligible individuals, and show that a reduced take up of vaccination by eligible adults may lead to a significant increase in new infections.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Wei Chu ◽  
W Townsend

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Most U.S. states have passed medical marijuana laws. In this paper, we study the effects of these laws on violent and property crime. We first estimate models that control for city fixed effects and flexible city-specific time trends. To supplement this regression analysis, we use the synthetic control method which can relax the parallel trend assumption and better account for heterogeneous policy effects. Both the regression analysis and the synthetic control method suggest no causal effects of medical marijuana laws on violent or property crime at the national level. We also find no strong effects within individual states, except for in California where the medical marijuana law reduced both violent and property crime by 20%.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel de Kadt ◽  
Stephen B. Wittels

Does democratization increase economic output? Answers to this question are inconsistent partly due to the challenges of examining the causal forces behind political and economic phenomena that occur at the national level. We employ a new empirical approach, the synthetic control method, to study the economic effects of democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1975–2008. This method yields case-specific causal estimates, which show that political reform associated with the “third wave” of democracy had highly heterogeneous, yet often substantively important effects in Africa. In some countries democratization adversely affected economic output while in others it exerted an analogous positive effect.


2022 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 0-0

Under the background of carbon neutrality, the carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems is an important way to mitigate climate change. Forest could not only protect the environment but also an important industry for economic development. As an international climate policy that first recognized the role of forest carbon sinks on climate change, the question becomes, has the Kyoto Protocol promoted the development of forest carbon sinks in contracting parties? To explore this, data of forest can be obtained at the national level. Hence, data of economic, social, polity and climate in 147 countries is also collected. The generalized synthetic control method is adopted. The results show that the policy effect of the Kyoto Protocol was obvious and significant. Moreover, the effect was more significant after the enforcement in 2005. Especially after the first commitment period, the policy effect of the second period is more obvious. Some policy implications are drawn.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Juanchich ◽  
Miroslav Sirota ◽  
Daniel Jolles ◽  
lilith whiley

The fast-changing COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to many conspiracy theories, and these have the potential to undermine public health measures and safeguarding behaviours. We conducted three studies before and during the COVID-19 lockdown in the United Kingdom (UK) (n = 302, 404 and 399) to (i) identify the prevalence of COVID-19 conspiracy theories in the UK, (ii) map their socio-psychological predictors, and (iii) investigate their association with health safeguarding behaviours. We found COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs were prevalent (25% of participants endorsed at least one) and predicted by beliefs in unrelated conspiracies, a conspiracy mind-set, distrust in governmental authorities, education, and cognitive reflection. Unexpectedly, COVID-19 conspiracy believers adhered to basic health guidelines both before and after the lockdown as strictly as non-believers (e.g., washing hands, social distancing) and adopted more advanced health protective behaviours not (yet) officially recommended in the UK (e.g., wearing a mask, washing groceries with soap). Conspiracy believers were also more reluctant to install the contact-tracing app, get tested for and vaccinated against COVID-19 because of the perceived risks associated with these procedures. We discuss psychological characteristics that explain the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and people’s behaviours and intentions, and suggest practical recommendations for public health initiatives.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-27
Author(s):  
Rebecca Tunstall

There is global concern about who gains from economic growth, including housing development, and global interest in making growth more inclusive. This article creates a new definition of ‘housing growth,’ growth in median space per person. It says that this housing growth is ‘inclusive’ if the worst-off make some gains, and ‘just’ if inequality does not increase. It applies these terms to data for 1981–2011 on rooms per person for England and Wales, the bulk of the UK, a nation with high income inequality but lower housing inequality. At national level, median housing space increased but the worst-off gained nothing, and inequality rose, so growth was neither inclusive nor just. Sub-national evidence shows that housing growth benefitted the worst-off in most areas, but they generally made very modest gains, and growth without increasing inequality was very rare. There was housing growth in all 10 regions except London, it was inclusive in 6 regions, but not just in any region. 97% of local authorities experienced housing growth, and it was inclusive in 72%, but the average gain for the worst-off was just 0.2 rooms/person over thirty years. Only 3% of local authorities achieved both inclusive and just growth. This suggests that in the UK and similar nations, local initiatives will be insufficient to achieve growth with significant gains for the worst-off, and that substantial change to the national system of housing development and allocation is needed. There may be a policy choice between benefitting the worst-off and reducing inequality. There is potential for further and comparative research.


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