scholarly journals Estimation of the severeness rate, death rate, household attack rate and the total number of COVID-19 cases based on 16 115 Polish surveillance records

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Barbara Adamik ◽  
Marek Bawiec ◽  
Viktor Bezborodov ◽  
Przemyslaw Biecek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Severe Case ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
Routine Surveillance ◽  
International Research Group ◽  
Case Rate

AbstractBackgroundEstimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.MethodsWe analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.ResultsBy maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.ConclusionsThe proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.MOCOSThe MOCOS (MOdelling COrona Spread) international research group is an interdisciplinary scientific consortium. The following authors are MOCOS members: Barbara Adamik, Marek Bawiec, Viktor Bezborodov, Przemyslaw Biecek, Wolfgang Bock, Marcin Bodych, Jan Pablo Burgard, Tyll Krueger, Agata Migalska, Tomasz Ożański, Barbara Pabjan, Magdalena Rosińska, Piotr Sobczyk and Ewa Szczurek

ZAP: The role of routine surveillance data in understanding the geography and timing of Salmonella on UK pig farms.

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Clough ◽  
Jean Sanderson ◽  
Patrick Brown ◽  
Alexander Miller ◽  
Alasdair J. C. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Routine Surveillance ◽  
Pig Farms

scholarly journals Potential Influence of Menstrual Status and Sex Hormones on Female Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: A Cross-sectional Multicenter Study in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Ding ◽  
Jinjin Zhang ◽  
Tian Wang ◽  
Pengfei Cui ◽  
Zhe Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Case ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Necrosis Factor Alpha ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Female Patients ◽  
Menstrual Status ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
Factor Alpha ◽  
Lower Morbidity ◽  
Necrosis Factor

Abstract Background Recent studies have indicated that females with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a lower morbidity, severe case rate, and mortality and better outcome than those of male individuals. However, the reasons remained to be addressed. Methods To find the factors that potentially protect females from COVID-19, we recruited all confirmed patients hospitalized at 3 branches of Tongji Hospital (N = 1902), and analyzed the correlation between menstrual status (n = 509, including 68 from Mobile Cabin Hospital), female hormones (n = 78), and cytokines related to immunity and inflammation (n = 263), and the severity/clinical outcomes in female patients <60 years of age. Results Nonmenopausal female patients had milder severity and better outcome compared with age-matched men (P < .01 for both). Menopausal patients had longer hospitalization times than nonmenopausal patients (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.06–3.46]; P = .033). Both anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and estradiol (E2) showed a negative correlation with severity of infection (adjusted HR, 0.146 [95% CI, .026–.824], P = .029 and 0.304 [95% CI, .092–1.001], P = .05, respectively). E2 levels were negatively correlated with interleukin (IL) 2R, IL-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor alpha in the luteal phase (P = .033, P = .048, P = .054, and P = .023) and C3 in the follicular phase (P = .030). Conclusions Menopause is an independent risk factor for female COVID-19 patients. AMH and E2 are potential protective factors, negatively correlated with COVID-19 severity, among which E2 is attributed to its regulation of cytokines related to immunity and inflammation.

scholarly journals Impact of The COVID-19 Pandemic on the Malaria Burden in Northern Ghana: Analysis of Routine Surveillance Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna-Katharina Heuschen ◽  
Alhassan Abdul-Mumin ◽  
Martin Nyaaba Adokiya ◽  
Guangyu Lu ◽  
Albrecht Jahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Information Management System ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Northern Ghana ◽  
Malaria Burden ◽  
Routine Surveillance ◽  
Outpatient Departments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic and its collateral damage severely impact health systems globally and risk to worsen the malaria situation in endemic countries. Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana. This study aims to analyze routine surveillance data to assess possible effects on the malaria burden in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northern Region of Ghana. Methods: Monthly routine data from the District Health Information Management System II (DHIMS2) of the Northern Region of Ghana were analyzed. Overall outpatient department visits and malaria incidence rates from the years 2015 to 2019 were compared to the corresponding data of the year 2020. Results: Compared to the corresponding periods of the years 2015 to 2019, overall visits and malaria incidence in pediatric and adult outpatient departments in northern Ghana decreased in March and April 2020, when major movement and social restrictions were implemented in response to the pandemic. Incidence slightly rebounded afterwards in 2020 but stayed below the average of the previous years. Data from inpatient departments showed a similar but more pronounced trend when compared to outpatient departments. In pregnant women, however, malaria incidence in outpatient departments increased after the first COVID-19 wave. Discussion: The findings from this study show that the COVID-19 pandemic affects the malaria burden in health facilities of Ghana, with declines in in- and outpatient rates. Pregnant women may experience reduced access to intermittent preventive malaria treatment and insecticide treated nets, resulting in subsequent higher malaria morbidity. Further data from other African countries, particularly on community-based studies, are needed to fully determine the impact of the pandemic on the malaria situation.

scholarly journals Routine Surveillance Data as a Resource for Planning Integration of NTD Case Management

2018 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 178-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hope Simpson ◽  
Benedict Quao ◽  
Emmy Van Der Grinten ◽  
Paul Saunderson ◽  
Edwin Ampadu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Management ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Routine Surveillance

scholarly journals Testing for tracing or testing just for treating? A comparative analysis of strategies to face COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Knudsen
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Critical Variable ◽  
Testing Rate ◽  
Poor Predictor ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
The Common ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
High Level

AbstractThere is some consensus in Europe and Asia about high testing rates being crucial to controlling COVID-19 pandemics. There are though misconceptions on what means an effective high testing rate. This paper demonstrates that the rate of tests per detected case (Tests/Case) is the critical variable, correlating negatively with the number of deaths. The higher the Tests/Case rate, the lower the death rate, as this predictor is causally related to contact tracing and isolation of the vectors of the disease. Doubling Tests/Case typically divides by about three the number of deaths. On the other hand, the per capita testing rate is a poor predictor for the performance of policies to fight the pandemics. The number of tests per 1,000 inhabitants (Tests/1,000) tends to correlate positively with the number of deaths. In some cases, high levels of Tests/1,000 just mean an epidemic that ran out of control, with an explosion of cases that demands high testing rates just to confirm the diagnosis of the seriously sick. This study also demonstrates that an early tracing strategy, with a high level of Tests/Case, reduces combined costs of testing and hospitalization dramatically. Therefore, the common claim that tracing strategies are unaffordable by poorer countries is incorrect. On the contrary, it is the most adequate, both from the economic and humanitarian points of view.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16115 Polish Surveillance Records

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Adamik ◽  
Marek Bawiec ◽  
Viktor Bezborodov ◽  
Przemyslaw Biecek ◽  
Wolfgang Bock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Death Rate
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