scholarly journals Quantifying Covid19-Vaccine Location Strategies For Germany

Author(s):  
Neele Leithäuser ◽  
Johanna Schneider ◽  
Sebastian Johann ◽  
Sven O. Krumke ◽  
Eva Schmidt ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundVaccines are an important tool to limit the health and economic damage of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several vaccine candidate already provided promising effectiveness data, but it is crucial for an effective vaccination campaign that people are willing and able to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Taking Germany as an example, we provide insights of using a mathematical approach for the planning and location of vaccination sites to optimally administer vaccines against Covid-19.MethodsWe used mathematical programming for computing an optimal selection of vaccination sites out of a given set (i.e., university hospitals, health department related locations and general practices). Different patient-to-facility assignments and doctor-to-facility assignments and different constraints on the number of vaccinees per site or maximum travel time are used.ResultsIn order to minimize the barriers for people to get vaccinated, i.e., limit the one-way travel journey (airline distance) by around 35 km for 75 % of the population (with a maximum of 70 km), around 80 well-positioned facilities can be enough. If only the 38 university hospitals are being used, the 75 % distance increases to around 50 km (with a maximum of 145 km). Using all 400 health departments or all 56 000 general practices can decrease the journey length significantly, but comes at the price of more required staff and possibly wastage of only partially used vaccine containers.ConclusionsIn the case of free assignments, the number of required physicians can in most scenarios be limited to 2 000, which is also the minimum with our assumptions. However, when travel distances for the patients are to be minimized, capacities of the facilities must be respected, or administrative assignments are prespecified, an increased number of physicians is unavoidable.

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Neele Leithäuser ◽  
Johanna Schneider ◽  
Sebastian Johann ◽  
Sven O. Krumke ◽  
Eva Schmidt ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Vaccines are an important tool to limit the health and economic damage of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several vaccine candidates already provided promising effectiveness data, but it is crucial for an effective vaccination campaign that people are willing and able to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Taking Germany as an example, we provide insights of using a mathematical approach for the planning and location of vaccination sites to optimally administer vaccines against Covid-19. Methods We used mathematical programming for computing an optimal selection of vaccination sites out of a given set (i.e., university hospitals, health department related locations and general practices). Different patient-to-facility assignments and doctor-to-facility assignments and different constraints on the number of vaccinees per site or maximum travel time are used. Results In order to minimize the barriers for people to get vaccinated, i.e., limit the one-way travel journey (airline distance) by around 35 km for 75% of the population (with a maximum of 70 km), around 80 well-positioned facilities can be enough. If only the 38 university hospitals are being used, the 75% distance increases to around 50 km (with a maximum of 145 km). Using all 400 health departments or all 56 000 general practices can decrease the journey length significantly, but comes at the price of more required staff and possibly wastage of only partially used vaccine containers. Conclusions In the case of free assignments, the number of required physicians can in most scenarios be limited to 2 000, which is also the minimum with our assumptions. However, when travel distances for the patients are to be minimized, capacities of the facilities must be respected, or administrative assignments are prespecified, an increased number of physicians is unavoidable.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neele Leithäuser ◽  
Johanna Schneider ◽  
Sebastian Johann ◽  
Sven Krumke ◽  
Eva Schmidt ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Vaccines are an important tool to limit the health and economic damage of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several vaccine candidate already provided promising effectiveness data, but it is crucial for an effective vaccination campaign that people are willing and able to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Taking Germany as an example, we provide insights of using a mathematical approach for the planning and location of vaccination sites to optimally administer vaccines against Covid-19. Methods: We used mathematical programming for computing an optimal selection of vaccination sites out of a given set (i.e., university hospitals, health department related locations and general practices). Different patient-to-facility assignments and doctor-to-facility assignments and different constraints on the number of vaccinees per site or maximum travel time are used. Results: In order to minimize the barriers for people to get vaccinated, i.e., limit the one-way travel journey (airline distance) by around 35 km for 75% of the population (with a maximum of 70 km), around 80 well-positioned facilities can be enough. If only the 38 university hospitals are being used, the 75% distance increases to around 50 km (with a maximum of 145 km). Using all 400 health departments or all 56,000 general practices can decrease the journey length significantly, but comes at the price of more required staff and possibly wastage of only partially used vaccine containers. Conclusions: In the case of free assignments, the number of required physicians can in most scenarios be limited to 2 000, which is also the minimum with our assumptions. However, when travel distances for the patients are to be minimized, capacities of the facilities must be respected, or administrative assignments are prespecified, an increased number of physicians is unavoidable.


1975 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 395-407
Author(s):  
S. Henriksen

The first question to be answered, in seeking coordinate systems for geodynamics, is: what is geodynamics? The answer is, of course, that geodynamics is that part of geophysics which is concerned with movements of the Earth, as opposed to geostatics which is the physics of the stationary Earth. But as far as we know, there is no stationary Earth – epur sic monere. So geodynamics is actually coextensive with geophysics, and coordinate systems suitable for the one should be suitable for the other. At the present time, there are not many coordinate systems, if any, that can be identified with a static Earth. Certainly the only coordinate of aeronomic (atmospheric) interest is the height, and this is usually either as geodynamic height or as pressure. In oceanology, the most important coordinate is depth, and this, like heights in the atmosphere, is expressed as metric depth from mean sea level, as geodynamic depth, or as pressure. Only for the earth do we find “static” systems in use, ana even here there is real question as to whether the systems are dynamic or static. So it would seem that our answer to the question, of what kind, of coordinate systems are we seeking, must be that we are looking for the same systems as are used in geophysics, and these systems are dynamic in nature already – that is, their definition involvestime.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-110
Author(s):  
Rachel Fensham

The Viennese modern choreographer Gertrud Bodenwieser's black coat leads to an analysis of her choreography in four main phases – the early European career; the rise of Nazism; war's brutality; and postwar attempts at reconciliation. Utilising archival and embodied research, the article focuses on a selection of Bodenwieser costumes that survived her journey from Vienna, or were remade in Australia, and their role in the dramaturgy of works such as Swinging Bells (1926), The Masks of Lucifer (1936, 1944), Cain and Abel (1940) and The One and the Many (1946). In addition to dance history, costume studies provides a distinctive way to engage with the question of what remains of performance, and what survives of the historical conditions and experience of modern dance-drama. Throughout, Hannah Arendt's book The Human Condition (1958) provides a critical guide to the acts of reconstruction undertaken by Bodenwieser as an émigré choreographer in the practice of her craft, and its ‘materializing reification’ of creative thought. As a study in affective memory, information regarding Bodenwieser's personal life becomes interwoven with the author's response to the material evidence of costumes, oral histories and documents located in various Australian archives. By resurrecting the ‘dead letters’ of this choreography, the article therefore considers how dance costumes offer the trace of an artistic resistance to totalitarianism.


Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1102
Author(s):  
Georgios N. Aretoulis ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou ◽  
Fani Antoniou

Purpose This paper aims to rank and identify the most efficient project managers (PMs) based on personality traits, using Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) methodology. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology relies on the five personality traits. These were used as the selection criteria. A questionnaire survey among 82 experienced engineers was used to estimate the required weights per personality trait. A second two-part questionnaire survey aimed at recording the PMs profile and assess the performance of personality traits per PM. PMs with the most years of experience are selected to be ranked through Visual PROMETHEE. Findings The findings suggest that a competent PM is the one that scores low on the “Neuroticism” trait and high especially on the “Conscientiousness” trait. Research limitations/implications The research applied a psychometric test specifically designed for Greek people. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is based on the personality characteristics to rank the PMs and does not consider the technical skills. Furthermore, the type of project is not considered in the process of ranking PMs. Practical implications The findings could contribute in the selection of the best PM that maximizes the project team’s performance. Social implications Improved project team communication and collaboration leading to improved project performance through better communication and collaboration. This is an additional benefit for the society, especially in the delivery of public infrastructure projects. A lot of public infrastructure projects deviate largely as far as cost and schedule is concerned and this is an additional burden for public and society. Proper project management through efficient PMs would save people’s money and time. Originality/value Identification of the best PMbased on a combination of multicriteria decision-making and psychometric tests, which focus on personality traits.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s389-s389
Author(s):  
Jeremy Goodman ◽  
Samuel Clasp ◽  
Arjun Srinivasan ◽  
Elizabeth Mothershed ◽  
Seth Kroop ◽  
...  

Background: Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a serious threat to patient safety; they account for substantial morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Healthcare practices, such as inappropriate use of antimicrobials, can also amplify the problem of antimicrobial resistance. Data collected to target HAI prevention and antimicrobial stewardship efforts and measure progress are an important resource for assuring transparency and accountability in healthcare, tracking adverse outcomes, investigating healthcare practices that may spread or protect against disease, detecting and responding to the spread of resistant pathogens, preventing infections, and saving lives. Methods: We discuss 3 healthcare-associated infection and antimicrobial Resistant infection (HAI-AR) reporting types: NHSN HAI-AR reporting, reportable diseases, and nationally notifiable diseases. HAI-AR reporting requirements outline facilities and data to report to NHSN and the health department to comply with state laws. Reportable diseases are those that facilities, providers, and laboratories are required to report to the health department. Nationally notifiable diseases are those reported by health departments to the CDC for nationwide surveillance and analysis as determined by Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) and the CDC. Data presented are based on state and federal policy; NHSN data are based on CDC reporting statistics. Results: Since the 2005 launch of the CDC NHSN and publication of federal advisory committee HAI reporting guidance, most states have established policies stipulating healthcare facilities in their jurisdiction report HAIs and resistant infections to the NHSN to gain access to those data, increasing from 2 states in 2005, to 18 in 2010, and to 36 states, Washington, DC, and Philadelphia in 2019. Reporting policies and NHSN participation expanded greatly following the 2011 inception of CMS HAI quality reporting requirements, with several states aligning state requirements with CMS reporting. States listing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) as a reportable disease increased from 7 in 2013 to 41 states and the District of Columbia in 2019. Vancomycin-intermediate and vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (VISA/VRSA) was added as a nationally notifiable disease in 2004, carbapenemase-producing CRE (CP-CRE) was added in 2018, and Candida auris clinical infections were added in 2019. The CDC and most jurisdictions with HAI reporting mandates issue public reports based on aggregate state data and/or facility-level data. States may also alert healthcare providers and health departments of emerging threats and to assist in notifying patients of potential exposure. Conclusions: Through efforts by health departments, facilities, patient advocates, partners, the CDC, and other federal agencies, HAI-AR reporting has steadily increased. Although reporting laws and data uses vary between jurisdictions, data provided serves as valuable tools to inform prevention.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Griesbach ◽  
Benjamin Säfken ◽  
Elisabeth Waldmann

Abstract Gradient boosting from the field of statistical learning is widely known as a powerful framework for estimation and selection of predictor effects in various regression models by adapting concepts from classification theory. Current boosting approaches also offer methods accounting for random effects and thus enable prediction of mixed models for longitudinal and clustered data. However, these approaches include several flaws resulting in unbalanced effect selection with falsely induced shrinkage and a low convergence rate on the one hand and biased estimates of the random effects on the other hand. We therefore propose a new boosting algorithm which explicitly accounts for the random structure by excluding it from the selection procedure, properly correcting the random effects estimates and in addition providing likelihood-based estimation of the random effects variance structure. The new algorithm offers an organic and unbiased fitting approach, which is shown via simulations and data examples.


1969 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek J. Pike

Robertson (1960) used probability transition matrices to estimate changes in gene frequency when sampling and selection are applied to a finite population. Curnow & Baker (1968) used Kojima's (1961) approximate formulae for the mean and variance of the change in gene frequency from a single cycle of selection applied to a finite population to develop an iterative procedure for studying the effects of repeated cycles of selection and regeneration. To do this they assumed a beta distribution for the unfixed gene frequencies at each generation.These two methods are discussed and a result used in Kojima's paper is proved. A number of sets of calculations are carried out using both methods and the results are compared to assess the accuracy of Curnow & Baker's method in relation to Robertson's approach.It is found that the one real fault in the Curnow-Baker method is its tendency to fix too high a proportion of the genes, particularly when the initial gene frequency is near to a fixation point. This fault is largely overcome when more individuals are selected. For selection of eight or more individuals the Curnow-Baker method is very accurate and appreciably faster than the transition matrix method.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-296
Author(s):  
W. F. Dodge ◽  
C. W. Daeschner ◽  
J. C. Brennan ◽  
H. S. Rosenberg ◽  
L. B. Travis ◽  
...  

Since 1951, when the percutaneous renal biopsy was introduced as an adjunctive method for study of patients with renal disease, reports of some 4,000 kidney biopsies have appeared in the literature. Only about 250 of these, however, have been performed in children. A biopsy specimen containing 5 to 10 glomeruli has been reported to be adequate for interpretation and to be representative of the total renal parenchyma in 84% of the cases with diffuse renal disease. Using a biopsy technique similar to that described by Kark, we have obtained an adequate specimen in 92% of 205 kidney biopsies performed in 168 children with diffuse renal diseases. Seven deaths have been previously reported in the literature. The circumstances surrounding the death of these seven patients and of the one death that occurred in our series are described. Perirenal hematoma has had a reported incidence of 0.4%. It has been our experience, as well as that of the other investigators, that if blood boss is replaced, the patient has an otherwise uneventful course and the mass subsequently disappears. Gross hematuria has had a reported incidence of 5.2%. Microscopic hematuria, lasting for 6 to 12 hours after biopsy, has been found to be the rule rather than the exception. The complications which have occurred have been associated with bleeding, and therefore a careful history concerning bleeding tendency and a study of the clotting mechanism is essential if the risk of needle renal biopsy is to be minimized. In addition to a bleeding tendency or defect in clotting mechanism, most investigators are agreed that the presence of only one kidney or an uncooperative patient are absolute contraindications to renal biopsy. The renal biopsy is primarily, at present, an additional and most useful investigative tool in the elucidation of the pathogenesis, natural history (by serial studies) and effectiveness of specific therapy upon the various renal diseases. It is of practical clinical importance in the selection of those patients with the nephrotic syndrome in whom glucocorticoid therapy is likely to be beneficial or the patient with anuria whose renal lesion is probably reversible with time; and, as a guide to the effectiveness of therapy in patients with pyelonephritis or lupus nephritis. It is not a technique that can be recommended for general or casual use. A classification of the pathohistobogic findings of diffuse glomerulonephritis, patterned after Ellis, is presented and discussed. This classification will be used in the description and discussion of various renal diseases and systemic diseases with associated nephritis in the three subsequent papers.


We present various techniques for the asymptotic expansions of generalized functions. We show that the moment asymptotic expansions hold for a very wide variety of kernels such as generalized functions of rapid decay and rapid oscillations. We do not use Mellin transform techniques as done by previous authors in the field. Instead, we introduce a direct approach that not only solves the one-dimensional problems but also applies to various multidimensional integrals and oscillatory kernels as well. This approach also helps in the development of various asymptotic series arising in diverse fields of mathematics and physics. We find that the asymptotic expansions of generalized functions depend on the selection of suitable spaces of test functions. Accordingly, we have exercised special care in classifying the spaces and the distributions defined on them. Furthermore, we use the theory of topological tensor products to obtain the expansions of vector-valued distributions. We present several examples to illustrate that many classical results follow in a simple manner. For instance, we derive from our results the asymptotic expansions of certain series considered by Ramanujan.


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