scholarly journals Comparative analysis of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state

Author(s):  
Luis Alvarez

AbstractWe use an exponential growth model to analyze the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state. This model uses the number of officially reported patients tested positive and deaths to estimate an infected hindcast of the cumulative number of patients who later tested positive or who later die. For each region, an epidemic timeline is established, obtaining a precise knowledge of the chronology of the main epidemiological events during the full course of the first wave. It includes, in particular, the time that the virus has been in free circulation before the impact of the social distancing measures were observable. The results of the study suggest that among the analyzed regions, only South Korea and Germany possessed, at the beginning of the epidemic, a testing capacity that allowed to correctly follow the evolution of the epidemic. Anticipation in taking measures in these two countries caused the virus to spend less time in free circulation than in the rest of the regions. The analysis of the growth rates in the different regions suggests that the exponential growth rate of the cumulative number of infected, when the virus is in free circulation, is around 0.250737. In addition, we also study the ability of the model to properly forecast the epidemic spread at the beginning of the epidemic outbreak when very little data and information about the coronavirus were available. In the case of France, we obtain a reasonable estimate of the peak of the new cases of patients tested positive 9 days in advance and only 7 days after the implementation of a strict lockdown.

10.1068/c0338 ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 493-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panikkos Poutziouris ◽  
Francis Chittenden ◽  
Tim Watts ◽  
Khaled Soufani

The purpose of this paper is to report on a comparative study of the impact on the SME economy (fewer than 250 employees) of the UK and US (New York State) tax regimes. This explorative study is part of the ongoing small business taxation research programme undertaken in association with NatWest Bank. The research involves (a) the computation of the tax position of a sample of UK-based small businesses (a self-employed person, a partnership, and a small limited company); (b) the application of the tax regime of New York State to the UK business cases studies; (c) the development of two computer simulation models that estimate the direct tax burden incurred by small businesses in the United Kingdom; and (d) the application of the tax regime of New York State to the UK models. This research forms the basis of a comparative discussion about the business tax regime in the United Kingdom and USA and throws some light on the on-going debate about the development of the tax regimes applicable to small businesses in OECD countries. The paper concludes with a summary of the key findings and policy implications and offers a brief discussion on progress towards tax harmonisation from the small business perspective.


Energy Policy ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep J Tharakan ◽  
Timothy A Volk ◽  
Christopher A Lindsey ◽  
Lawrence P Abrahamson ◽  
Edwin H White

Author(s):  
David A. Call ◽  
Guy A. Flynt

AbstractSnow has numerous effects on traffic, including reduced traffic volumes, greater crash risk, and increased travel times. This research examines how snow affects crash risk, traffic volume, and toll revenue on the New York State Thruway. Daily data from January for a ten-year period (2010-2019) were analyzed for the Thruway from the Pennsylvania state line in western New York to Syracuse.Anywhere from 35-50 percent of crashes are associated with inclement weather, with smaller impacts, proportionally, in areas with greater traffic volumes. As expected, snow was almost always involved when weather was a factor. “Unsafe speed” was the most common cause of crashes in inclement weather with all other factors (e.g., animals, drowsiness) much less likely to play a role. The percentage of crashes resulting in an injury did not change significantly with inclement conditions when compared to crashes occurring in fair conditions, and there were too few fatal crashes to make any inferences about them.Daily snowfall rates predicted about 30 percent of the variation in crash numbers, with every 5.1 cm of snowfall resulting in an additional crash, except in Buffalo where 5.1 cm of snow resulted in an additional 2.6 crashes. Confirming earlier results, daily snowfall had a large impact on passenger vehicle counts while commercial vehicle counts were less affected. Revenue data showed a similar pattern, with passenger revenue typically decreasing by 3-5 percent per 2.5 cm of snow, while commercial revenue decreases were 1-4 percent per 2.5 cm of snow.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (5) ◽  
pp. 903-905
Author(s):  
Sandra Hernandez

The ultimate objective of newborn screening for sickle cell disease should be twofold. The first essential step is the identification of the infants at risk. This has been effectively done in New York state as of 1975 through the New York State Newborn Screening Program. However, identifying these children is not enough. Second is the much more complicated task of providing comprehensive follow-up care for families whose children are affected by the disease, including the much needed psychosocial services. This area continues to be sorely neglected. The increased risk of death due to overwhelming infection in the first 3 years of life for children with sickle cell disease has been noted in the literature. When there is no specialized care, 15% to 20% do not survive. Therefore, it is essential for knowledgeable staff to make contact and begin to develop a trusting relationship as soon as possible with parents of infants born with sickle cell disease. Prophylactic penicillin and pneumococcal vaccination can reduce mortality during the early years. Family involvement with a consistent, available team of health care providers is pivotal in understanding this chronic illness and coping effectively with this extraordinary stress. Our staff is available by telephone for consultations with patients or other medical staff during clinic and emergency room visits and hospitalizations. One element that is clear in our experience at the St Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Sickle Cell Center in New York City is that adjustment to this chronic illness is a lifelong process. One or two counseling sessions at the time of diagnosis are not sufficient to enable families to fully understand the information given or to realize the impact of having a child with a chronic illness.


Pharmacy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya Singh ◽  
Renae L. Smith-Ray ◽  
Michael Taitel

The 2019 measles outbreak was the worst since the USA eliminated measles in 2000. This paper presents the vaccination trends for a large chain-pharmacy, Walgreens, and examines the estimated vaccination capacity and impact of pharmacist privilege policies across states. Specifically, we estimated the number of people who could have been vaccinated in eight states with reduced or no measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination privilege during the study period January–June, 2019. During the study period, Walgreens pharmacists administered MMR vaccines to 62,526 patients, a 231.9% increase. If pharmacists had been permitted to vaccinate against measles in the eight states investigated, Walgreens pharmacies would have administered between 12,404 and 36,551 additional vaccinations during that time. We also estimated all chain pharmacies’ capacity to vaccinate in one state that was severely impacted by the measles outbreak, New York, using a range from normal pharmacy operating conditions to maximum capacity. Assuming sufficient demand, it was estimated that chain pharmacies in New York State would have the capacity to vaccinate between 47,688 and 174,856 patients daily, achieving MMR vaccination (first dose) of the measles-susceptible population within 8–28 days. Overall, this study demonstrates the public health value of pharmacist vaccination privilege during a nation-wide outbreak of measles.


2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-81
Author(s):  
Young Joo Park ◽  
Stephen Weinberg ◽  
Lindsay W. Cogan

1986 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 264-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maureen Manion

New York State provides institutional aid to nonpublic institutions of higher learning within the context of its constitutional prohibitions against aid to denominational institutions. To qualify for state aid, New York's private colleges and universities must prove they are constitutionally eligible, a process which has prompted extensive self-evaiuation and frequently some changes by many of those institutions with traditional religious affiliation. State aid administrators have chosen to restrict their constitutional approach to state standards and ignore the United States Supreme Court's tripartite standards articulated inLemonv.Kurtzman, as modified by theTilton-Hunt-Roemerdecisions. The state law has been cautiously and diplomatically administered, but the possibility of future state “entanglement” with church-related institutions remains.


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