scholarly journals Does the punishment fit the crime? Consequences and diagnosis of misspecified detection functions in Bayesian spatial capture-recapture modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Dey ◽  
Richard Bischof ◽  
Pierre P. A. Dupont ◽  
Cyril Milleret

AbstractSpatial capture-recapture (SCR) is now used widely to estimate wildlife densities. At the core of SCR models lies the detection function, linking individual detection probability to the distance from its latent activity center. The most common function (half-normal) assumes a bivariate normal space use and consequently detection pattern. This is likely an oversimplification and misrepresentation of real-life animal space use patterns, but studies have reported that density estimates are relatively robust to misspecified detection functions. However, information about consequences of such misspecification on space use parameters (e.g. home range area), as well as diagnostic tools to reveal it are lacking.We simulated SCR data under six different detection functions, including the half-normal, to represent a wide range of space use patterns. We then fit three different SCR models, with the three simplest detection functions (half-normal, exponential and half-normal plateau) to each simulated data set. We evaluated the consequences of misspecification in terms of bias, precision and coverage probability of density and home range area estimates. We also calculated Bayesian p-values with respect to different discrepancy metrics to assess whether these can help identify misspecifications of the detection function.We corroborate previous findings that density estimates are robust to misspecifications of the detection function. However, estimates of home range area are prone to bias when the detection function is misspecified. When fitted with the half-normal model, average relative bias of 95% kernel home range area estimates ranged between −25% and 26% depending on the misspecification. In contrast, the half-normal plateau model (an extension of the half-normal) returned average relative bias that ranged between −26% and −4%. Additionally, we found useful heuristic patterns in Bayesian p-values to diagnose the misspecification in detection function.Our analytical framework and diagnostic tools may help users select a detection function when analyzing empirical data, especially when space use parameters (such as home range area) are of interest. We urge development of additional custom goodness of fit diagnostics for Bayesian SCR models to help practitioners identify a wider range of model misspecifications.

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1550) ◽  
pp. 2221-2231 ◽  
Author(s):  
John G. Kie ◽  
Jason Matthiopoulos ◽  
John Fieberg ◽  
Roger A. Powell ◽  
Francesca Cagnacci ◽  
...  

Recent advances in animal tracking and telemetry technology have allowed the collection of location data at an ever-increasing rate and accuracy, and these advances have been accompanied by the development of new methods of data analysis for portraying space use, home ranges and utilization distributions. New statistical approaches include data-intensive techniques such as kriging and nonlinear generalized regression models for habitat use. In addition, mechanistic home-range models, derived from models of animal movement behaviour, promise to offer new insights into how home ranges emerge as the result of specific patterns of movements by individuals in response to their environment. Traditional methods such as kernel density estimators are likely to remain popular because of their ease of use. Large datasets make it possible to apply these methods over relatively short periods of time such as weeks or months, and these estimates may be analysed using mixed effects models, offering another approach to studying temporal variation in space-use patterns. Although new technologies open new avenues in ecological research, our knowledge of why animals use space in the ways we observe will only advance by researchers using these new technologies and asking new and innovative questions about the empirical patterns they observe.


2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 476-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Delphine Danancher ◽  
Jacques Labonne ◽  
Roger Pradel ◽  
Philippe Gaudin

In this study, capture–mark–recapture statistics were applied to spatial recapture histories to assess the intensity of fish restricted movements along the longitudinal axis of a river using a previously described model for survival and recruitment analysis. Adapting the stopover estimation method to spatial data, movement probabilities were then used to estimate space used at the population scale. This capture–recapture estimates of space used in streams (CRESUS) method may thus be seen as a complementary tool of classic home range methods and should be used to explore the consequence of behavioural strategies on population mechanisms. We propose a methodological example where movements and space use strategies of a Zingel asper (percid) population in the Beaume River (Ardèche, France) were directly estimated at the population scale taking account of the effects of different biotic or abiotic factors. Results showed differences in Z. asper space use patterns among sexes, periods of biological cycle (growing and spawning period), and types of mesohabitat. Downstream movements were more important during the spawning period and by the way the riffle was more intensively used.


2020 ◽  
Vol 89 (12) ◽  
pp. 2763-2776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha Ellison ◽  
Ben J. Hatchwell ◽  
Sarah J. Biddiscombe ◽  
Clare J. Napper ◽  
Jonathan R. Potts

1993 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 869-875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lui Marinelli ◽  
François Messier

We investigated the space-use patterns of adult muskrats in a small (77 ha) marsh on the Canadian Prairies during two breeding seasons. During the study, population size was relatively low and the adult sex ratio was biased towards females. Adult muskrats were territorial with little intrasexual home-range overlap. The exclusivity of home ranges was maintained throughout the breeding season, and appeared to decrease at the end of the season. Male movements often extended over the territory of more than one female, but the overlap was more extensive with primary than with secondary females. Lactation appeared to reduce the space use and mobility of female muskrats. Male muskrats tended to range over smaller areas when weaned young were present within their home range. The results suggest that the sexual pair is the basic social unit of muskrats but that polygyny was common. A female-biased sex ratio appeared to be responsible for the tendency of males to mate polygynously during this study, thus illustrating the plasticity of this social system.


2015 ◽  
Vol 97 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Welch ◽  
Craig J. Tambling ◽  
Charlene Bissett ◽  
Angela Gaylard ◽  
Konrad Müller ◽  
...  

Abstract Human/carnivore conflicts are common across the globe, and with a growing human population, this conflict is likely to increase as the space available to large carnivores is reduced. In South Africa, many small (< 400 km 2 ), fenced protected areas have reintroduced persecuted carnivores, such as brown hyenas ( Hyaena brunnea ). These reserves have great potential to conserve brown hyena populations; consequently, understanding the limitations that small, fenced reserves impose on space use patterns is needed. We investigated the home range (95% fixed kernel utilization distributions) and landscape determinants of habitat selection using resource selection functions for 10 brown hyenas in 3 separate fenced reserves. Home range sizes were consistently smaller in 2 of the reserves when compared to the third. Considerable variation in the selection of habitat features exists among individual brown hyenas and reserves. The most important landscape determinant driving brown hyena space use was distance to roads, with brown hyenas observed closer to roads when compared to random locations within their ranges. If this relationship with roads holds outside of protected areas, it could represent a considerable threat to the species. Thus, obtaining a better understanding of the influence of roads on brown hyenas represents an important focus for future research.


Author(s):  
Ivan V. Seryodkin ◽  
Yuriy K. Kostyria ◽  
John M. Goodrich ◽  
Yuriy K. Petrunenko

Proper management of brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) requires knowledge of their ecology, including space use. Brown bear spatial patterns are particularly poorly understood in the Russian Far East, due to lack of telemetry studies. The aim of this work was to study space use by brown bears in the Sikhote-Alin region. From 1993 to 2002, we used VHF radiocollars to collect spatial data from nine males (eight adults and one juvenile) and six females (five adults and one juvenile) in the Middle Sikhote-Alin. Fixed Kernel home range size estimates were larger for males (891.34 ± 346.99 km2) than for females (349.94 ± 543.06 km2). The juvenile home range sizes were 237.24 and 333.64 km2 for the male and female, respectively. The maximum home range size was for the two-year area of one male (9217.36 km2). The core area sizes varied over a wide range (6.12–358.45 km2). The structure and location of home ranges and their core areas depended upon the seasonal habitat selection of bears, as well as the distribution, abundance, and accessibility of foraging resources. Bears’ home ranges overlapped between males and females, as well as between same sex individuals. The results of this work are important for the management of the brown bear population in the Sikhote-Alin


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Lindsø ◽  
Pierre Dupont ◽  
Lars Rød-Eriksen ◽  
Ida Pernille Øystese Andersskog ◽  
Kristine Roaldsnes Ulvund ◽  
...  

Abstract Spatial capture-recapture modelling (SCR) is a powerful tool for estimating densities, population size and space use of elusive animals. Here, we applied SCR modeling to non-invasive genetic sampling (NGS) data to estimate red fox (Vulpes vulpes) densities in two areas of boreal forest in central (2016 - 2018) and southern Norway (2017 - 2018). Estimated densities were overall lower in the northern study area (mean = 0.04 foxes per km2 [95%CI: 0.02-0.09] in 2016, 0.09 [0.05-0.18] in 2017 and 0.07 [0.04-0.13] in 2018) compared to the southern study area (0.16 [0.09-0.26] in 2017 and 0.10 [0.07-0.16] in 2018). We found a positive effect of forest cover on density in the northern, but not the southern study area. The absence of an effect in the southern area may reflect a paucity of evidence caused by low variation in forest cover, but could also be due to climatic differences (e.g., winter severity) between the two areas. Estimated mean home range size in the northern study area was 45 km2 [34-60] for females and 88 km2 [69-113] for males. Mean home range sizes were smaller in the southern study area (26 km2 [16-42] for females and 56 km2 [35-91] for males). In both study areas, detection probability was session-dependent and affected by sampling effort. This study highlights how SCR modeling in combination with NGS can be used to efficiently monitor red fox populations, and simultaneously incorporate ecological factors and estimate their effects on population density and space-use.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph M. Eisaguirre ◽  
Travis L. Booms ◽  
Christopher P. Barger ◽  
Scott D. Goddard ◽  
Greg A. Breed

AbstractHome range dynamics and movement are central to a species’ ecology and strongly mediate both intra- and interspecific interactions. Numerous methods have been introduced to describe animal home ranges, but most lack predictive ability and cannot capture effects of dynamic environmental patterns, such as the impacts of air and water flow on movement.Here, we develop a practical, multi-stage approach for statistical inference into the behavioral mechanisms underlying how habitat and dynamic energy landscapes—in this case how airflow increases or decreases the energetic efficiency of flight—shape animal home ranges based around central places. We validated the new approach using simulations, then applied it to a sample of 12 adult golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos tracked with satellite telemetry.The application to golden eagles revealed effects of habitat variables that align with predicted behavioral ecology. Further, we found that males and females partition their home ranges dynamically based on uplift. Specifically, changes in wind and sun angle drove differential space use between sexes, especially later in the breeding season when energetic demands of growing nestlings require both parents to forage more widely.This method is easily implemented using widely available programming languages and is based on a hierarchical multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck space use process that incorporates habitat and energy landscapes. The underlying mathematical properties of the model allow straightforward computation of predicted utilization distributions, permitting estimation of home range size and visualization of space use patterns under varying conditions.


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