Proxy-based model to assess the relative contribution of ballast water and biofouling’s potential propagule pressure and prioritize vessel inspections

AbstractCommercial shipping is the primary pathway of introduction for aquatic nonindigenous species, mainly through the mechanisms of ballast water and biofouling. In response to this threat, regulatory programs have been established across the globe to regulate and monitor commercial merchant and passenger vessels to assess compliance with local requirements to reduce the likelihood of NIS introductions. Resource limitations often determine the inspection efforts applied by these regulatory agencies to reduce NIS introductions. We present a simple and adaptable model that prioritizes vessel arrivals for inspection using proxies for potential propagule pressure, namely a ships’ wetted surface area as a proxy for the likelihood of biofouling-mediated potential propagule pressure and ballast water discharge volume as a proxy for ballast water-mediated potential propagule pressure. We used a California-specific dataset of vessels that arrived at California ports between 2015 and 2018 to test the proposed model and demonstrate how a finite set of inspection resources can be applied to target vessels with the greatest potential propagule pressure. The proposed tool is adaptable by jurisdiction, scalable to different segments of the vessel population, adjustable based on the vector of interest, and versatile because it allows combined or separate analyses of the PPP components. The approach can be adopted in any jurisdiction across the globe, especially jurisdictions without access to, or authority to collect, risk profiling data or direct measurements for all incoming vessel arrivals.

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Proxy-based model to assess the relative contribution of ballast water and biofouling’s potential propagule pressure and prioritize vessel inspections

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0247538 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. e0247538

Author(s):

Lina Ceballos-Osuna ◽

Chris Scianni ◽

Maurya Falkner ◽

Raya Nedelcheva ◽

Whitman Miller

Keyword(s):

Ballast Water ◽

Propagule Pressure ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Resource Limitations ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Risk Profiling ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Direct Measurements ◽

Finite Set ◽

Wetted Surface Area

Commercial shipping is the primary pathway of introduction for aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS), mainly through the mechanisms of ballast water and biofouling. In response to this threat, regulatory programs have been established across the globe to regulate and monitor commercial merchant and passenger vessels to assess compliance with local requirements to reduce the likelihood of NIS introductions. Resource limitations often determine the inspection efforts applied by these regulatory agencies to reduce NIS introductions. We present a simple and adaptable model that prioritizes vessel arrivals for inspection using proxies for potential propagule pressure (PPP), namely a ships’ wetted surface area as a proxy for the likelihood of biofouling-mediated PPP and ballast water discharge volume as a proxy for ballast water-mediated PPP. We used a California-specific dataset of vessels that arrived at California ports between 2015 and 2018 to test the proposed model and demonstrate how a finite set of inspection resources can be applied to target vessels with the greatest PPP. The proposed tool is adaptable by jurisdiction, scalable to different segments of the vessel population, adjustable based on the vector of interest, and versatile because it allows combined or separate analyses of the PPP components. The approach can be adopted in any jurisdiction across the globe, especially jurisdictions without access to, or authority to collect, risk profiling data or direct measurements for all incoming vessel arrivals.

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Temporal modelling of ballast water discharge and ship-mediated invasion risk to Australia

Royal Society Open Science ◽

10.1098/rsos.150039 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

pp. 150039 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Robert C. Cope ◽

Thomas A. A. Prowse ◽

Joshua V. Ross ◽

Talia A. Wittmann ◽

Phillip Cassey

Keyword(s):

Biological Invasions ◽

Ballast Water ◽

Propagule Pressure ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Maritime Trade ◽

Bulk Carrier ◽

Invasion Risk ◽

Marine Invasion ◽

Temporal Modelling

Biological invasions have the potential to cause extensive ecological and economic damage. Maritime trade facilitates biological invasions by transferring species in ballast water, and on ships' hulls. With volumes of maritime trade increasing globally, efforts to prevent these biological invasions are of significant importance. Both the International Maritime Organization and the Australian government have developed policy seeking to reduce the risk of these invasions. In this study, we constructed models for the transfer of ballast water into Australian waters, based on historic ballast survey data. We used these models to hindcast ballast water discharge over all vessels that arrived in Australian waters between 1999 and 2012. We used models for propagule survival to compare the risk of ballast-mediated propagule transport between ecoregions. We found that total annual ballast discharge volume into Australia more than doubled over the study period, with the vast majority of ballast water discharge and propagule pressure associated with bulk carrier traffic. As such, the ecoregions suffering the greatest risk are those associated with the export of mining commodities. As global marine trade continues to increase, effective monitoring and biosecurity policy will remain necessary to combat the risk of future marine invasion events.

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Estimating establishment probabilities of Cladocera introduced at low density: an evaluation of the proposed ballast water discharge standards

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/f08-200 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 66 (2) ◽

pp. 261-276 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Sarah A. Bailey ◽

Luis Antonio Vélez-Espino ◽

Ora E. Johannsson ◽

Marten A. Koops ◽

Chris J. Wiley

Keyword(s):

Environmental Conditions ◽

Ballast Water ◽

Propagule Pressure ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Critical Threshold ◽

Precautionary Approach ◽

Diapausing Eggs ◽

Adverse Environmental Conditions ◽

Future Technologies

The International Maritime Organization has proposed ballast water discharge standards to reduce densities of taxa transported in ballast water. While reduced propagule pressure will almost certainly lower the risk of species introductions, we ask if the proposed standards will be effective against taxa capable of rapid population growth from small inocula, such as parthenogenetic taxa. We modified a diffusion approximation to calculate establishment probabilities as the probability of reaching a critical threshold density necessary to initiate sexual reproduction (and production of diapausing eggs for long-term persistence) before the onset of adverse environmental conditions. We parameterize our model for six Cladocera using growth rates measured during enclosure experiments conducted under favourable environmental conditions (i.e., using a precautionary approach). We then examine predicted establishment probabilities at different inoculum densities to determine the efficacy of the proposed ballast water discharge standards. Our results indicate that future technologies in compliance with the proposed standards could reduce establishment probabilities for some parthenogenetic zooplankton threefold; however, there is still a risk of establishment for some taxa.

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Ecosystem under pressure: Ballast water discharge into Galveston Bay, Texas (USA) from 2005 to 2010

Marine Pollution Bulletin ◽

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.01.028 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 64 (4) ◽

pp. 779-789 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Jamie L. Steichen ◽

Rachel Windham ◽

Robin Brinkmeyer ◽

Antonietta Quigg

Keyword(s):

Ballast Water ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Galveston Bay

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Supplementary material to "Simulating the spread of disinfection by-products and anthropogenic bromoform emissions from ballast water discharge in Southeast Asia"

10.5194/os-2018-151-supplement ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Josefine Maas ◽

Susann Tegtmeier ◽

Birgit Quack ◽

Arne Biastoch ◽

Jonathan V. Durgadoo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southeast Asia ◽

Ballast Water ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Supplementary Material ◽

By Products

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Multi-Economic Agent Grid Resource Allocation Strategies in the Signaling Game Theory Analysis Model

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.29-32.1093 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 29-32 ◽

pp. 1093-1099 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jun Xie ◽

Ji Guang Li

Keyword(s):

Resource Allocation ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Theory Analysis ◽

Grid Resource ◽

Trading Agents ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Finite Set ◽

Optimal Resource ◽

Resource Allocation Strategy ◽

Allocation Strategies

The paper presents a market oriented resource allocation strategy for grid resource. The proposed model uses the utility functions for calculating the utility of a resource allocation. This paper is target to solve above issues by using utility-based optimization scheme. We firstly point out the factors that influence the resources’ prices; then make out the trading flow for resource consumer agents and provider agents. By doing these, the two trading agents can decide their price due to the dynamic changes of the Grid environment without any manmade interferences. Total user benefit of the computational grid is maximized when the equilibrium prices are obtained through the consumer’s market optimization and provider’s market optimization. The economic model is the basis of an iterative algorithm that, given a finite set of requests, is used to perform optimal resource allocation.

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Time-temperature and time-stress correspondence in nonlinear creep. Experimental behaviour of amorphous polymers and quantitative modelling approaches

e-Polymers ◽

10.1515/epoly.2004.4.1.907 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

José R. S. André ◽

José J. C. Cruz Pinto

Keyword(s):

Nonlinear Creep ◽

Predictive Capability ◽

Kinetic Formulation ◽

Time Stress ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Fully Coupled ◽

Experimental Behaviour ◽

Modelling Approach

Abstract Non-linear creep is described by a non-simulative, analytical, dynamic molecular modelling approach. Elementary, molecular-scale, process-relevant frequencies are derived by adequate kinetic formulation. They follow almost exactly an Arrhenius-like behaviour with a range of activation enthalpies. Their relative contribution to the overall macroscopic behaviour of the materials is quantified to account for the materials’ retardation time spectra and final non-Arrhenius behaviour. A new creep compliance equation is derived, yielding a fully coupled timetemperature- stress formulation, with long-term predictive capability. Experimental data for poly(methyl methacrylate) are analysed to identify the extent to which timetemperature and time-stress correspondence relationships may be valid, and it is shown that they are approximations (especially the latter), limited to narrow ranges of experimental variables, in contrast to the proposed model, which more reasonably fits the experimental behaviour.

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Strength in Numbers: Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data to Model Plant Invasions in Coastal Dune Ecosystems

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11030275 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 275 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marco Malavasi ◽

Vojtěch Barták ◽

Tommaso Jucker ◽

Alicia Teresa Rosario Acosta ◽

Maria Laura Carranza ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Linear Models ◽

Propagule Pressure ◽

Central Italy ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Biotic Interactions ◽

Coastal Dunes ◽

Plant Invasions ◽

Remotely Sensed Data ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Optical Imagery

A common feature of most theories of invasion ecology is that the extent and intensity of invasions is driven by a combination of drivers, which can be grouped into three main factors: propagule pressure (P), abiotic drivers (A) and biotic interactions (B). However, teasing apart the relative contribution of P, A and B on Invasive Alien Species (IAS) distributions is typically hampered by a lack of data. We focused on Mediterranean coastal dunes as a model system to test the ability of a combination of multi-source Remote Sensing (RS) data to characterize the distribution of five IAS. Using generalized linear models, we explored and ranked correlates of P, A and B derived from high-resolution optical imagery and three-dimensional (3D) topographic models obtained from LiDAR, along two coastal systems in Central Italy (Lazio and Molise Regions). Predictors from all three factors contributed significantly to explaining the presence of IAS, but their relative importance varied among the two Regions, supporting previous studies suggesting that invasion is a context-dependent process. The use of RS data allowed us to characterize the distribution of IAS across broad, regional scales and to identify coastal sectors that are most likely to be invaded in the future.

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