scholarly journals Aggregating probabilistic predictions of the safety, efficacy, and timing of a COVID-19 vaccine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Charles McAndrew ◽  
Juan Cambeiro ◽  
Tamay Besiroglu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
High Efficacy ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Potential Vaccine ◽  
Poor Individual

Safe, efficacious vaccines were developed to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. But in the middle of 2020, vaccine effectiveness, safety, and the timeline for when a vaccine would be approved and distributed to the public was uncertain. To support public health decision making, we solicited trained forecasters and experts in vaccinology and infectious disease to provide monthly probabilistic predictions from July to September of 2020 of the efficacy, safety, timing, and delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine. We found, that despite sparse historical data, a consensus--a combination of human judgment probabilistic predictions--can quantify the uncertainty in clinical significance and timing of a potential vaccine. The consensus underestimated how fast a therapy would show a survival benefit and the high efficacy of approved COVID-19 vaccines. However, the consensus did make an accurate prediction for when a vaccine would be approved by the FDA. Compared to individual forecasters, the consensus was consistently above the 50th percentile of the most accurate forecasts. A consensus is a fast and versatile method to build probabilistic predictions of a developing vaccine that is robust to poor individual predictions. Though experts and trained forecasters did underestimate the speed of development and the high efficacy of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, consensus predictions can improve situational awareness for public health officials and for the public make clearer the risks, rewards, and timing of a vaccine.

scholarly journals ‘All In’: A Pragmatic Framework for COVID-19 Testing and Action on a Global Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syril D Pettit ◽  
Keith Jerome ◽  
David Rouquie ◽  
Susan Hester ◽  
Leah Wehmas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Material Resource ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Community ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Broad Consensus

Current demand for SARS-CoV-2 testing is straining material resource and labor capacity around the globe. As a result, the public health and clinical community are hindered in their ability to monitor and contain the spread of COVID-19. Despite broad consensus that more testing is needed, pragmatic guidance towards realizing this objective has been limited. This paper addresses this limitation by proposing a novel and geographically agnostic framework (‘the 4Ps Framework) to guide multidisciplinary, scalable, resource-efficient, and achievable efforts towards enhanced testing capacity. The 4Ps (Prioritize, Propagate, Partition, and Provide) are described in terms of specific opportunities to enhance the volume, diversity, characterization, and implementation of SARS-CoV-2 testing to benefit public health. Coordinated deployment of the strategic and tactical recommendations described in this framework have the potential to rapidly expand available testing capacity, improve public health decision-making in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and/or to be applied in future emergent disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Routine and sentinel surveillance methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Joseph Z. Losos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Dissemination Area ◽  
Health Community ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Action Choice

Surveillance, whether active or passive, is a dynamic process. It is fundamental to public health decision-making and subsequent action. Choice of diseases for surveillance, development of methods, ongoing systematic evaluation and dissemination to those who need to know, are each components which require expert, knowledgeable attention. The communication age will greatly redefine approaches to surveillance, both for data acquisition and dissemination. Especially in the dissemination area, the public health community needs to strengthen its capacity

scholarly journals The NCCMT’s dynamic model for evidence-informed public health

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Clark ◽  
S Neil-Sztramko ◽  
M Dobbins
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Evidence ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Structured Approach

Abstract Issue It is well accepted that public health decision makers should use the best available research evidence in their decision-making process. However, research evidence alone is insufficient to inform public health decision making. Description of the problem As new challenges to public health emerge, there can be a paucity of high quality research evidence to inform decisions on new topics. Public health decision makers must combine various sources of evidence with their public health expertise to make evidence-informed decisions. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools (NCCMT) has developed a model which combines research evidence with other critical sources of evidence that can help guide decision makers in evidence-informed decision making. Results The NCCMT's model for evidence-informed public health combines findings from research evidence with local data and context, community and political preferences and actions and evidence on available resources. The model has been widely used across Canada and worldwide, and has been integrated into many public health organizations' decision-making processes. The model is also used for teaching an evidence-informed public health approach in Masters of Public Health programs around the globe. The model provides a structured approach to integrating evidence from several critical sources into public health decision making. Use of the model helps ensure that important research, contextual and preference information is sought and incorporated. Lessons Next steps for the model include development of a tool to facilitate synthesis of evidence across all four domains. Although Indigenous knowledges are relevant for public health decision making and should be considered as part of a complete assessment the current model does not capture Indigenous knowledges. Key messages Decision making in public health requires integrating the best available evidence, including research findings, local data and context, community and political preferences and available resources. The NCCMT’s model for evidence-informed public health provides a structured approach to integrating evidence from several critical sources into public health decision making.

scholarly journals Contributions in the field of Public Health for decision-making in health

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Antônio Tavares Neves
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Motor Development ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Human Growth ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Scientific World ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Human Growth And Development

  Brazil has made a wide development and contribution in the field of Public Health. These contributions have maximized public health decision-making, which is a factor of great importance for the maintenance of health of a given population, either in the prevention of disease, as is the case of immunizations or with actions in Health Promotion, improving the quality of life of the affected population. Thus, the Journal of Human Growth and Development has contributed enormously to the dissemination of knowledge, not only in Brazil but also in the world making a major effort with its publications in English which is the preferred language of the modern scientific world. It was evidenced the importance of research in the investigation of better ways to obtain the public health of a given community, bringing discussion of themes that involve aspects of human growth and development such as nutritional aspects, sexuality, motor development, covering situations and diseases as obesity, cerebral palsy, dyslexia and violence. The Journal of Human Growth and Development has maintained the tradition of approaching the different aspects that involve clinical practice for people and for Public Health. 

Public Health Decision Making and Risk Perception

2010 ◽  
pp. 729-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie S. Downs ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff ◽  
Elizabeth A. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Health Decision
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