An Extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sri Lanka

The role of modelling in predicting the spread of an epidemic is important for health planning and policies. This study aims to apply a compartmental model for predicting the variations of epidemiological parameters in Sri Lanka. We used a dynamic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) model, and simulated for potential vaccine strategies under a range of epidemic conditions. The predictions were based on different vaccination coverages (5% to 90%), vaccination-rates (1%, 2%, 5%) and vaccine-efficacies (40%, 60%, 80%) under different R0 (2,4,6). We observed how the above dynamics influenced the SEIRV model without COVID-19 vaccination at different R0 values, and estimated the duration, exposed and infected populations. When the R0 was increased, the days of reduction of susceptibility and the days to reach the peak of the infection were reduced gradually. At least 45% vaccine coverage is required for reducing the infected population as early as possible. The results revealed that when R0 is increased in the SEIRV model along with the increase of vaccination efficacy and vaccination rate, the population to be vaccinated is reducing. Thus, the vaccination offers greater benefits to the local population by reducing the time to reach the peak, exposed and infected population through flattening the curves.

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Use Of A Mobile Cart Influenza Program For Vaccination Of Hospital Employees

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1086/502320 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 25 (11) ◽

pp. 918-922 ◽

Cited By ~ 99

Author(s):

Catherine Sartor ◽

Herve Tissot-Dupont ◽

Christine Zandotti ◽

Francoise Martin ◽

Pierre Roques ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccination ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Associate Professor ◽

University Hospital ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Vaccination Acceptance ◽

The Impact ◽

Haenszel Test

AbstractObjective:Rates of annual influenza vaccination of healthcare workers (HCWs) remained low in our university hospital. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a mobile cart influenza vaccination program on HCW vaccination.Methods:From 2000 to 2002, the employee health service continued its annual influenza vaccination program and the mobile cart program was implemented throughout the institution. This program offered influenza vaccination to all employees directly on the units. Each employee completed a questionnaire. Vaccination rates were analyzed using the Mantel–Haenszel test.Results:The program proposed vaccination to 50% to 56% of the employees. Among the nonvaccinated employees, 52% to 53% agreed to be vaccinated. The compliance with vaccination varied from 61% to 77% among physicians and medical students and from 38% to 55% among nurses and other employees. Vaccination of the chief or associate professor of the unit was associated with a higher vaccination rate of the medical staff (P < .01). Altogether, the vaccination program led to an increase in influenza vaccination among employees from 6% in 1998 and 7% in 1999 before the mobile cart program to 32% in 2000, 35% in 2001, and 32% in 2002 (P < .001).Conclusions:The mobile cart program was associated with a significantly increased vaccination acceptance. Our study was able to identify HCW groups for which the mobile cart was effective and highlight the role of the unit head in its success.

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How Large Fraction of A Population Must be Vaccinated before A Disease is Controlled?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1218033/v2 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Robin Halamicek ◽

Dirk W Schubert ◽

Fritjof Nilsson

Keyword(s):

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Large Fraction ◽

Vaccine Dose ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Basic Reproduction Ratio ◽

Mathematical Equation ◽

Reproduction Ratio ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Crucial Question ◽

Modelling Study

Abstract The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has already caused more than 5 million casualties despite hard restrictions and relatively high vaccine coverage in many countries. The crucial question is therefore, how large vaccination rate and how severe restrictions are required to terminate the spread of the decease, assuming that the vaccine efficiency and the basic reproduction ratio (R0) are known? To answer this question, a mathematical equation was applied to visualize the required vaccination level as function of vaccine efficiency, restriction efficiency and basic reproduction ratio (R0). In addition to the modelling study, Covid-19 data from Europe was collected during 19/11-26/11 (2021) to assess the relation between vaccination rate and incidence. The analysis indicates that a vaccination rate of ~92% (2 doses) is required to stop Delta (B.1.617.2) without severe restrictions, under conditions like those in Europe late November 2021. A third vaccine dose, improved vaccines, higher vaccination rates and/or stronger restrictions will be required to force Omicron (B.1.1.529) to expire without infecting a large fraction of the population.

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Evaluation of a pilot project to increase influenza vaccine coverage in patient with chronic diseases

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.1094 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

L Pinsonneault ◽

K Demers ◽

P Dagenais ◽

G Baron

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccine ◽

Chronic Diseases ◽

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Pilot Project ◽

Immunosuppressive Drugs ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Patient Questionnaire ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Patient Questionnaires

Abstract Background Chronic diseases are a major risk factor for influenza morbidity and mortality. However, influenza vaccine coverage in people with chronic diseases remains low, around 43%, in Quebec, Canada. Various strategies are being tested to improve the vaccination rates for this population. A pilot project was implemented in a rheumatology outpatient clinic during the 2018-19 season to improve vaccination access in this often-immunosuppressed group of patients. All patients having an appointment at the clinic during the vaccination period were systematically invited to see the nurse and offered vaccination if they met the program criteria, namely if they were taking immunosuppressive drugs. Methods Implementation and results of the project were evaluated using mixed methods. Data on vaccination were collected from the nurses' forms and from a patient self-administered questionnaire. Data on implementation was collected through the patient questionnaire and semi-directed interviews with the clinic physicians, the clinic nurse and managers. Results A total of 1135 patients were evaluated by the nurses during the project and 427 completed the patient questionnaire. Total vaccination rate amongst patients seen by the nurses was 63%. Based on patient questionnaires results, vaccination was increased by 46%, as compared to the previous year (52% in 2017-18 vs 76% in 2018-19). The project was well received. Key elements of its success were integration in regular clinic activities, support for the initiative by patients and professionals and some logistic aspects such as preloaded syringes. Barriers were mostly related to excess workload and vaccine management. Conclusions Overall, the project improved vaccination coverage and was considered a success. Lessons learned were used to adjust and spread this initiative to more outpatient clinics using personnel dedicated for vaccination rather than using the clinic nurse. A phase II project was done and evaluated in 2019-2020. Key messages Increasing timely access to vaccination helps to increase influenza vaccine coverage. Managers should plan for the increased workload on clinical and clerical personnel when implementing systematic vaccination offer.

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How Large Fraction of A Population Must be Vaccinated before A Disease is Controlled?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1218033/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Robin Halamicek ◽

Dirk W Schubert ◽

Fritjof Nilsson

Keyword(s):

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Large Fraction ◽

Vaccine Dose ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Basic Reproduction Ratio ◽

Mathematical Equation ◽

Reproduction Ratio ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Crucial Question ◽

Europe Today

Abstract The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has already caused more than 5 million casualties despite hard restrictions and relatively high vaccine coverage in many countries. The crucial question is therefore, how large vaccination rate and how severe restrictions are required to terminate the spread of the decease, assuming that the vaccine efficiency and the basic reproduction ratio (R0) are known? To answer this question, a simple mathematical equation was developed to visualize the required vaccination level as function of vaccine efficiency, restriction efficiency and basic reproduction ratio (R0). In addition to the modelling study, Covid-19 data from Europe was collected during 19/11-26/11 (2021) to assess the relation between vaccination rate and incidence. The analysis indicates that a vaccination rate of ~92% (2 doses) is currently required to stop Delta (B.1.617.2) without severe restrictions, using the vaccines that are most common in Europe today. A third vaccine dose, improved vaccines, higher vaccination rates and/or stronger restrictions will be required to force Omicron (B.1.1.529) to expire without infecting a large fraction of the population.

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Predictive Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Sri Lanka using an Adaptive Compartmental Model: Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) Model

10.1101/2021.08.09.21261819 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nayani Umesha Rajapaksha ◽

Supun Dilara Wijesinghe ◽

Sujith P. Jayasooriya ◽

Prasad Chathuranga Weerasinghe ◽

Indika Gunawardana

Keyword(s):

Compartmental Model ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Health Planning ◽

Sri Lankan ◽

Personal Protection ◽

Movement Restriction ◽

Public Places ◽

Protective Measures ◽

Strict Adherence

Abstract The role of modelling in predicting the spread of an epidemic is important for health planning and policies. This study aimed to apply a dynamic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deaths (SEIRD) model and simulated it under a range of epidemic conditions using python programme language. The predictions were based on different scenarios from without any preventive measures to several different preventive measures under R0 of 4. The model shows that more weight to personal protection can halt the spread of transmission followed by the closure of public places and interprovincial movement restriction. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding personal protective measures can have devastating effects on the Sri Lankan population. The importance of strict adherence, maintain and monitoring of self-preventive measures lead to minimizing the death toll from COVID-19. Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Modelling; Predictions; SEIRD.

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Flu and Pneumococcal Vaccine Coverage in Scleroderma Patients Still Need to Be Prompted: A Systematic Review

Vaccines ◽

10.3390/vaccines9111330 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 1330

Author(s):

Francesca Rosamilia ◽

Giovanni Noberasco ◽

Dario Olobardi ◽

Andrea Orsi ◽

Giancarlo Icardi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Pneumococcal Vaccination ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Flu Vaccine ◽

Vaccination Campaigns ◽

Low Coverage ◽

Current Guidelines

Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma, SSc) is an autoimmune connective tissue disease characterized by excessive production of collagen and multiorgan involvement. Scleroderma patients are at increased risk of influenza complications and pneumonia; thus, vaccinations are recommended. This systematic review evaluated the influenza and pneumococcus vaccination coverage for SSc patients. We included all studies from Pubmed reporting on influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rate in Scleroderma patients up to May 2021. The 14 studies thus selected identified a suboptimal vaccination rate in autoimmune and SSc patients, ranging from 28 to 59% for the flu vaccine, and from 11 to 58% for the pneumo vaccine in absence of specific vaccination campaigns, variously considering also other variables such as age, gender, vaccination settings, and possible vaccination campaigns. We also considered the reasons for low coverage and the approaches that might increase the vaccination rates. A lack of knowledge about the importance of vaccination in these patients and their doctors underlined the need to increase the awareness for vaccination in this patients’ category. Current guidelines recommend vaccination in elderly people and people affected by particular conditions that widely overlap with SSc, yet autoimmune diseases are not always clearly mentioned. Improving this suboptimal vaccination rate with clear guidelines is crucial for SSc patients and for clinicians to immunize these categories based principally on the pathology, prior to the age. Recommendations by the immunologist and the direct link to the vaccine providers can highly improve the vaccine coverage.

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Influenza Vaccination Status and Its Affecting Factors among Stroke Survivors: Findings from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Vaccines ◽

10.3390/vaccines9070763 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 763

Author(s):

Eung-Joon Lee ◽

Oh-Deog Kwon ◽

Seung-Jae Kim

Keyword(s):

Influenza Vaccination ◽

National Health ◽

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Stroke Survivors ◽

Nutrition Examination Survey ◽

Affecting Factors ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

Health And Nutrition

Few studies have examined the influenza vaccination rates among stroke survivors despite the importance of vaccines in preventing influenza- and stroke-related complications. Thus, we investigated the vaccination rates and the associated factors among stroke survivors using the representative Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2014–2018. We measured and compared the vaccination rates of 591 stroke survivors and 17,997 non-stroke survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analyses of all stroke survivors and age subgroups (<65 and ≥65 years) were performed to identify the factors influencing vaccination. The overall vaccination rate was significantly higher in the stroke survivors (64.8%) than in the non-stroke survivors (41.1%), but it was low compared to global standards. Among stroke survivors aged < 65 years, the rate was low (37.5%), but it improved in those aged ≥ 65 years (85.6%). Age ≥ 65 years, the eligible age for the national free vaccination program was the most prominent predictor of vaccination for all stroke survivors, while smoking was a negative predictor. No significant factors were found in the subgroup analyses according to age (<65 and ≥65 years). Therefore, implementing strategic public health policies, such as expanding the free vaccination program to stroke survivors aged < 65 years, may improve vaccine coverage.

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A Court in Decline? Examining the Regality Court Records of Melrose, Roxburghshire, 1657–84

Journal of Scottish Historical Studies ◽

10.3366/jshs.2020.0284 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 40 (1) ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Vivienne Dunstan

Keyword(s):

Seventeenth Century ◽

Local Community ◽

Local Population ◽

Local Area ◽

Vital Role ◽

Local Communities ◽

Court Records ◽

Seminal Work

McIntyre, in his seminal work on Scottish franchise courts, argues that these courts were in decline in this period, and of little relevance to their local population. 1 But was that really the case? This paper explores that question, using a particularly rich set of local court records. By analysing the functions and significance of one particular court it assesses the role of this one court within its local area, and considers whether it really was in decline at this time, or if it continued to perform a vital role in its local community. The period studied is the mid to late seventeenth century, a period of considerable upheaval in Scottish life, that has attracted considerable attention from scholars, though often less on the experiences of local communities and people.

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The Role of Music and Allied Arts in Public Writings on Cultural Diversity: “People of Sri Lanka”

ASIAN-EUROPEAN MUSIC RESEARCH JOURNAL ◽

10.30819/aemr.6-7 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 93-100

Author(s):

Gisa Jähnichen

Keyword(s):

Sri Lanka ◽

Cultural Diversity ◽

South Asia ◽

Case Studies ◽

Sri Lankan ◽

Culturally Different ◽

The World ◽

Official Languages ◽

The Way

The Sri Lankan Ministry of National Coexistence, Dialogue, and Official Languages published the work “People of Sri Lanka” in 2017. In this comprehensive publication, 21 invited Sri Lankan scholars introduced 19 different people’s groups to public readers in English, mainly targeted at a growing number of foreign visitors in need of understanding the cultural diversity Sri Lanka has to offer. This paper will observe the presentation of these different groups of people, the role music and allied arts play in this context. Considering the non-scholarly design of the publication, a discussion of the role of music and allied arts has to be supplemented through additional analyses based on sources mentioned by the 21 participating scholars and their fragmented application of available knowledge. In result, this paper might help improve the way facts about groups of people, the way of grouping people, and the way of presenting these groupings are displayed to the world beyond South Asia. This fieldwork and literature guided investigation should also lead to suggestions for ethical principles in teaching and presenting of culturally different music practices within Sri Lanka, thus adding an example for other case studies.

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РЕГІОНАЛЬНИЙ МИТЕЦЬ В ІНОКУЛЬТУРНОМУ СЕРЕДОВИЩІ: ПРОБЛЕМА ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ

УКРАЇНСЬКА КУЛЬТУРА : МИНУЛЕ, СУЧАСНЕ, ШЛЯХИ РОЗВИТКУ (НАПРЯМ: КУЛЬТУРОЛОГІЯ) ◽

10.35619/ucpmk.vi33.306 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 152-158

Author(s):

Admink Admink ◽

Сергій Виткалов ◽

Валентина Вігула

Keyword(s):

Local Government ◽

Cultural Practices ◽

Local Population ◽

Government Reform ◽

Different Levels

Розглядається організаційно-культурна діяльність одного з помітних у регіональному просторі Західного Полісся фотомитця – Олександра Купчинського, а саме виставковий її вектор, втілений в презентації артефактів світового фотомистецтва; видавничий, розглянутий у контексті друку різноманітних фотоальбомів із творів експонентів, організація творчих зустрічей художньої інтелігенції міста з питань обговорення актуальних питань культурного розвитку, заснування фотоклубу тощо. Доводиться, що втрата зв’язку з Батьківщиною, у якій би формі це не відбувалося, не дозволяє митцю творчо самореалізуватися повною мірою. The importance and problematic range of local government reform in the regions of the country and ways of its solution in the field of culture are analyzed. The most effective steps are proposed for management structures at different levels to change attitudes of both the management and the local population regarding different cultural practices. Emphasis is placed on the role of sectoral methodological services in the implementation of this reform. The experience of other countries in activating the local population in this process is emphasized. An attempt has been made to offer effective, in the authors' opinion, solutions to the reform. Emphasis is placed on the educational factor.

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