scholarly journals Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Seyed Moghadas ◽  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Eric C Schneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Sustained Increase

Despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants, the number of cases in NYC has fallen from over 5,500 average daily cases in January, 2020 to less than 350 average daily cases in July, 2021. The impact of vaccination in saving lives and averting hospitalizations in NYC has not been formally investigated yet. We used an age-stratified agent-based model calibrated to COVID-19 transmission and vaccination in NYC to evaluate the impact of the vaccination campaign in suppressing the COVID-19 burden. We found that the vaccination campaign has prevented over 250,000 COVID-19 cases, 44,000 hospitalizations and 8,300 deaths from COVID-19 infection since the start of vaccination through July 1, 2021. Notably, the swift vaccine rollout suppressed another wave of COVID-19 that would have led to sustained increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths during spring triggered by highly transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps across the city, the findings of this study underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccination and close the vaccine coverage gaps across the city.

scholarly journals The Impact of Vaccination to Control COVID-19 Burden in the United States: A Simulation Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Alagoz ◽  
Ajay K. Sethi ◽  
Brian W. Patterson ◽  
Matthew Churpek ◽  
Ghalib Alhanaee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIntroductionVaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model.MethodsWe applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. The primary outcomes were the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. We also estimated the number of cases without vaccination.ResultsThe timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.1% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 65%, controlled spread could be achieved by July 2021 and August 2021, respectively versus in March 2022 in both regions without vaccine. If adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions increases to 70%, controlled spread could be achieved by May 2021 and April 2021 in Dane County and Milwaukee, respectively.DiscussionIn controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. The effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants was not considered.Primary Funding SourceNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

scholarly journals Interactions among common non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses and influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on their circulation in New York City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haokun Yuan ◽  
Alice Yeung ◽  
Wan Yang
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and voluntary behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic have influenced the circulation of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. We aimed to examine interactions among common non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory virus and further estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these viruses. Methods We analyzed incidence data for seven groups of respiratory viruses in New York City (NYC) during Oct 2015 - May 2021 (i.e., before and during the COVID-19 pandemic). We first used elastic net regression to identify potential virus interactions and further examined the robustness of the found interactions by comparing the performance of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with and without the interactions. We then used the models to compute counterfactual estimates of cumulative incidence and estimate the reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic period from March 2020 to May 2021, for each virus. Results We identified potential interactions for three endemic human coronaviruses (CoV-NL63, CoV-HKU, and CoV-OC43), parainfluenza (PIV)-1, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We found significant reductions (by ~70-90%) in cumulative incidence of CoV-OC43, CoV-229E, human metapneumovirus, PIV-2, PIV-4, RSV, and influenza virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the circulation of adenovirus and rhinovirus was less affected. Conclusions Circulation of several respiratory viruses has been low during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to increased population susceptibility. It is thus important to enhance monitoring of these viruses and promptly enact measures to mitigate their health impacts (e.g., influenza vaccination campaign and hospital infection prevention) in the coming months.

scholarly journals An Agent Based Modeling of COVID-19: Validation, Analysis, and Recommendations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Salman Shamil ◽  
Farhanaz Farheen ◽  
Nabil Ibtehaz ◽  
Irtesam Mahmud Khan ◽  
M. Sohel Rahman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Emergency Service ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The City

AbstractThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic worldwide. Countries have adopted Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) to slow down the spread. This study proposes an Agent Based Model that simulates the spread of COVID-19 among the inhabitants of a city. The Agent Based Model can be accommodated for any location by integrating parameters specific to the city. The simulation gives the number of daily confirmed cases. Considering each person as an agent susceptible to COVID-19, the model causes infected individuals to transmit the disease via various actions performed every hour. The model is validated by comparing the simulation to the real data of Ford county, Kansas, USA. Different interventions including contact tracing are applied on a scaled down version of New York city, USA and the parameters that lead to a controlled epidemic are determined. Our experiments suggest that contact tracing via smartphones with more than 60% of the population owning a smartphone combined with a city-wide lock-down results in the effective reproduction number (Rt) to fall below 1 within three weeks of intervention. In the case of 75% or more smartphone users, new infections are eliminated and the spread is contained within three months of intervention. Contact tracing accompanied with early lock-down can suppress the epidemic growth of COVID-19 completely with sufficient smartphone owners. In places where it is difficult to ensure a high percentage of smartphone ownership, tracing only emergency service providers during a lock-down can go a long way to contain the spread. No particular funding was available for this project.

The New York City Operations Support Tool (OST): Managing Water for Millions of People in an Era of Changing Climate and Extreme Hydrological Events

2015 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550008 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Porter ◽  
Adão H. Matonse ◽  
Allan Frei
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
York City ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Downstream Communities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

With an average daily delivery of 1.1 billion gallons ([Formula: see text]) of drinking water to approximately nine million people in New York City (NYC) and four upstate counties, the NYC Water Supply is among the world’s largest unfiltered systems. In addition to reliably supplying water in terms of quantity and quality, the city has to fulfill other flow objectives to serve downstream communities. At times, such as during extreme hydrological events, water quality issues may restrict water usage from parts of the system; the city is proactively implementing a number of programs to monitor and minimize the impact. To help guide operations and planning, NYC has developed the Operations Support Tool (OST), a decision support system that utilizes ensemble forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). This paper provides an overview of OST and shows two operations case studies to illustrate how OST is used to support risk-based water supply management. As the modeling uncertainty is strongly impacted by the forecast skill, we also discuss how changes in patterns of hydrological extreme events elevate the challenge faced by water supply managers and the role of the scientific community to integrate non-stationarity approaches in hydrologic forecasting.

scholarly journals The Association of Tree Pollen Concentration Peaks and Allergy Medication Sales in New York City: 2003–2008

ISRN Allergy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perry E. Sheffield ◽  
Kate R. Weinberger ◽  
Kazuhiko Ito ◽  
Thomas D. Matte ◽  
Robert W. Mathes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Pollen Concentration ◽  
Tree Pollen ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The impact of pollen exposure on population allergic illness is poorly characterized. We explore the association of tree pollen and over-the-counter daily allergy medication sales in the New York City metropolitan area. Dates of peak tree pollen (maple, oak, and birch) concentrations were identified from 2003 to 2008. Daily allergy medication sales reported to the city health department were analyzed as a function of the same-day and lagged tree pollen peak indicators, adjusting for season, year, temperature, and day of week. Significant associations were found between tree pollen peaks and allergy medication sales, with the strongest association at 2-day lag (excess sales of 28.7% (95% CI: 17.4–41.2) over the average sales during the study period). The cumulative effect over the 7-day period on and after the tree pollen peak dates was estimated to be 141.1% (95% CI: 79.4–224.1). In conclusion, tree pollen concentration peaks were followed by large increases in over-the-counter allergy medication sales.

scholarly journals The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254456
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Alagoz ◽  
Ajay K. Sethi ◽  
Brian W. Patterson ◽  
Matthew Churpek ◽  
Ghalib Alhanaee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model. Methods We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. Results The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine. Discussion In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Hospitals: N.Y. Appellate Court Denies Move to Privatize Public Hospital

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-203
Author(s):  
Robert Chatham
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Municipal Hospital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Benefit Corporation ◽  
The City

The Court of Appeals of New York held, in Council of the City of New York u. Giuliani, slip op. 02634, 1999 WL 179257 (N.Y. Mar. 30, 1999), that New York City may not privatize a public city hospital without state statutory authorization. The court found invalid a sublease of a municipal hospital operated by a public benefit corporation to a private, for-profit entity. The court reasoned that the controlling statute prescribed the operation of a municipal hospital as a government function that must be fulfilled by the public benefit corporation as long as it exists, and nothing short of legislative action could put an end to the corporation's existence.In 1969, the New York State legislature enacted the Health and Hospitals Corporation Act (HHCA), establishing the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) as an attempt to improve the New York City public health system. Thirty years later, on a renewed perception that the public health system was once again lacking, the city administration approved a sublease of Coney Island Hospital from HHC to PHS New York, Inc. (PHS), a private, for-profit entity.

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