scholarly journals An Agent Based Modeling of COVID-19: Validation, Analysis, and Recommendations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Salman Shamil ◽  
Farhanaz Farheen ◽  
Nabil Ibtehaz ◽  
Irtesam Mahmud Khan ◽  
M. Sohel Rahman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Emergency Service ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The City

AbstractThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic worldwide. Countries have adopted Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) to slow down the spread. This study proposes an Agent Based Model that simulates the spread of COVID-19 among the inhabitants of a city. The Agent Based Model can be accommodated for any location by integrating parameters specific to the city. The simulation gives the number of daily confirmed cases. Considering each person as an agent susceptible to COVID-19, the model causes infected individuals to transmit the disease via various actions performed every hour. The model is validated by comparing the simulation to the real data of Ford county, Kansas, USA. Different interventions including contact tracing are applied on a scaled down version of New York city, USA and the parameters that lead to a controlled epidemic are determined. Our experiments suggest that contact tracing via smartphones with more than 60% of the population owning a smartphone combined with a city-wide lock-down results in the effective reproduction number (Rt) to fall below 1 within three weeks of intervention. In the case of 75% or more smartphone users, new infections are eliminated and the spread is contained within three months of intervention. Contact tracing accompanied with early lock-down can suppress the epidemic growth of COVID-19 completely with sufficient smartphone owners. In places where it is difficult to ensure a high percentage of smartphone ownership, tracing only emergency service providers during a lock-down can go a long way to contain the spread. No particular funding was available for this project.

scholarly journals Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Seyed Moghadas ◽  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Eric C Schneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Sustained Increase

Despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants, the number of cases in NYC has fallen from over 5,500 average daily cases in January, 2020 to less than 350 average daily cases in July, 2021. The impact of vaccination in saving lives and averting hospitalizations in NYC has not been formally investigated yet. We used an age-stratified agent-based model calibrated to COVID-19 transmission and vaccination in NYC to evaluate the impact of the vaccination campaign in suppressing the COVID-19 burden. We found that the vaccination campaign has prevented over 250,000 COVID-19 cases, 44,000 hospitalizations and 8,300 deaths from COVID-19 infection since the start of vaccination through July 1, 2021. Notably, the swift vaccine rollout suppressed another wave of COVID-19 that would have led to sustained increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths during spring triggered by highly transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps across the city, the findings of this study underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccination and close the vaccine coverage gaps across the city.

Simulation-based analyses of an evacuation from a metropolis during a bombardment

SIMULATION ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 90 (11) ◽  
pp. 1244-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jang Won Bae ◽  
SeHoon Lee ◽  
Jeong Hee Hong ◽  
Il-Chul Moon
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Target Region ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Virtual Experiments ◽  
The Road ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The Military

The bombardment of a metropolis is considered a nightmare scenario. To reduce losses from such an assault, big cities have developed evacuation policies in case of bombardment. However, to build efficient evacuation policies, much footing data is required that considers both military and civilian views. Agent-based modeling and simulation could be utilized as a method to obtain the footing data. In this paper, we develop an evacuation agent-based model that describes a massive evacuation through the road network of a metropolis during a bombardment. In particular, our model took account of bombing strategies (i.e. the military view) as well as the characteristics of roads and evacuation agents (i.e. the civilian view) in order to analyze evacuations from both military and civilian perspectives. Moreover, we applied real data from a target region to calibrate parameters and initial conditions of the evacuation agent-based models, which increased the reliability of simulation results. Using the evacuation agent-based model, we designed and performed virtual experiments with varying military and civilian factors. Through the various analyses on the experiment results, we showed that our model could be a framework that provides footing data to develop efficient evacuation policies and preparations.

Assessing the role of access and price on the consumption of fruits and vegetables across New York City using agent-based modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 73-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Li ◽  
Donglan Zhang ◽  
Janani R. Thapa ◽  
Kumbirai Madondo ◽  
Stella Yi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based

Hospitals: N.Y. Appellate Court Denies Move to Privatize Public Hospital

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-203
Author(s):  
Robert Chatham
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Municipal Hospital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Benefit Corporation ◽  
The City

The Court of Appeals of New York held, in Council of the City of New York u. Giuliani, slip op. 02634, 1999 WL 179257 (N.Y. Mar. 30, 1999), that New York City may not privatize a public city hospital without state statutory authorization. The court found invalid a sublease of a municipal hospital operated by a public benefit corporation to a private, for-profit entity. The court reasoned that the controlling statute prescribed the operation of a municipal hospital as a government function that must be fulfilled by the public benefit corporation as long as it exists, and nothing short of legislative action could put an end to the corporation's existence.In 1969, the New York State legislature enacted the Health and Hospitals Corporation Act (HHCA), establishing the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) as an attempt to improve the New York City public health system. Thirty years later, on a renewed perception that the public health system was once again lacking, the city administration approved a sublease of Coney Island Hospital from HHC to PHS New York, Inc. (PHS), a private, for-profit entity.

The Search for Order in Municipal Administration: Herman A. Metz and the New York City Experience, 1898–1909

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-74
Author(s):  
Ryan P. McDonough ◽  
Paul J. Miranti ◽  
Michael P. Schoderbek
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
York City ◽  
Internal Controls ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
The Public ◽  
Operational Activities ◽  
The City

ABSTRACT This paper examines the administrative and accounting reforms coordinated by Herman A. Metz around the turn of the 20th century in New York City. Reform efforts were motivated by deficiencies in administering New York City's finances, including a lack of internal control over monetary resources and operational activities, and opaque financial reports. The activities of Comptroller Metz, who collaborated with institutions such as the New York Bureau of Municipal Research, were paramount in initiating and implementing the administrative and accounting reforms in the city, which contributed to reform efforts across the country. Metz promoted the adoption of functional cost classifications for city departments, developed flowcharts for improved transaction processing, strengthened internal controls, and published the 1909 Manual of Accounting and Business Procedure of the City of New York, which laid the groundwork for transparent financial reports capable of providing vital information about the city's activities and subsidiary units. JEL Classifications: H72, M41, N91. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

International Opera in Nineteenth-century New York

2020 ◽  
pp. 244-269
Author(s):  
Karen Ahlquist
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
World War I ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Considerable Extent ◽  
World War ◽  
Metropolitan Opera ◽  
The City

This chapter charts how canonic repertories evolved in very different forms in New York City during the nineteenth century. The unstable succession of entrepreneurial touring troupes that visited the city adapted both repertory and individual pieces to the audience’s taste, from which there emerged a major theater, the Metropolitan Opera, offering a mix of German, Italian, and French works. The stable repertory in place there by 1910 resembles to a considerable extent that performed in the same theater today. Indeed, all of the twenty-five operas most often performed between 1883 and 2015 at the Metropolitan Opera were written before World War I. The repertory may seem haphazard in its diversity, but that very condition proved to be its strength in the long term. This chapter is paired with Benjamin Walton’s “Canons of real and imagined opera: Buenos Aires and Montevideo, 1810–1860.”

scholarly journals Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367
Author(s):  
Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽  
Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽  
Ece C. Mutlu ◽  
Ozlem O. Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Disease Model ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

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