scholarly journals Forecasting admissions in psychiatric hospitals before and during Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Wolff ◽  
Ansgar Klimke ◽  
Michael Marschollek ◽  
Tim Kacprowski
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitals ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
One Step ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Better Than

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has strong effects on most health care systems and individual services providers. Forecasting of admissions can help for the efficient organisation of hospital care. We aimed to forecast the number of admissions to psychiatric hospitals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and we compared the performance of machine learning models and time series models. This would eventually allow to support timely resource allocation for optimal treatment of patients. Methods We used admission data from 9 psychiatric hospitals in Germany between 2017 and 2020. We compared machine learning models with time series models in weekly, monthly and yearly forecasting before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our models were trained and validated with data from the first two years and tested in prospectively sliding time-windows in the last two years. Results A total of 90,686 admissions were analysed. The models explained up to 90% of variance in hospital admissions in 2019 and 75% in 2020 with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The best models substantially outperformed a one-step seasonal naive forecast (seasonal mean absolute scaled error (sMASE) 2019: 0.59, 2020: 0.76). The best model in 2019 was a machine learning model (elastic net, mean absolute error (MAE): 7.25). The best model in 2020 was a time series model (exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors and trend and seasonal components, MAE: 10.44), which adjusted more quickly to the shock effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Models forecasting admissions one week in advance did not perform better than monthly and yearly models in 2019 but they did in 2020. The most important features for the machine learning models were calendrical variables. Conclusion Model performance did not vary much between different modelling approaches before the COVID-19 pandemic and established forecasts were substantially better than one-step seasonal naive forecasts. However, weekly time series models adjusted quicker to the COVID-19 related shock effects. In practice, different forecast horizons could be used simultaneously to allow both early planning and quick adjustments to external effects.

Identification of Anti-cancer Peptides Based on Multi-classifier System

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 694-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanben Zhong ◽  
Bineng Zhong ◽  
Hongbo Zhang ◽  
Ziyi Chen ◽  
Yan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Side Effect ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Normal Cells ◽  
Classifier System ◽  
Prediction Rate ◽  
Anti Cancer ◽  
Feature Information ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Better Than

Aim and Objective: Cancer is one of the deadliest diseases, taking the lives of millions every year. Traditional methods of treating cancer are expensive and toxic to normal cells. Fortunately, anti-cancer peptides (ACPs) can eliminate this side effect. However, the identification and development of new anti Materials and Methods: In our study, a multi-classifier system was used, combined with multiple machine learning models, to predict anti-cancer peptides. These individual learners are composed of different feature information and algorithms, and form a multi-classifier system by voting. Results and Conclusion: The experiments show that the overall prediction rate of each individual learner is above 80% and the overall accuracy of multi-classifier system for anti-cancer peptides prediction can reach 95.93%, which is better than the existing prediction model.

Intra-domain and cross-domain transfer learning for time series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Otović ◽  
Marko Njirjak ◽  
Dario Jozinović ◽  
Goran Mauša ◽  
Alberto Michelini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sound Recognition ◽  
Transfer Of Knowledge ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

<p>In this study, we compared the performance of machine learning models trained using transfer learning and those that were trained from scratch - on time series data. Four machine learning models were used for the experiment. Two models were taken from the field of seismology, and the other two are general-purpose models for working with time series data. The accuracy of selected models was systematically observed and analyzed when switching within the same domain of application (seismology), as well as between mutually different domains of application (seismology, speech, medicine, finance). In seismology, we used two databases of local earthquakes (one in counts, and the other with the instrument response removed) and a database of global earthquakes for predicting earthquake magnitude; other datasets targeted classifying spoken words (speech), predicting stock prices (finance) and classifying muscle movement from EMG signals (medicine).<br>In practice, it is very demanding and sometimes impossible to collect datasets of tagged data large enough to successfully train a machine learning model. Therefore, in our experiment, we use reduced data sets of 1,500 and 9,000 data instances to mimic such conditions. Using the same scaled-down datasets, we trained two sets of machine learning models: those that used transfer learning for training and those that were trained from scratch. We compared the performances between pairs of models in order to draw conclusions about the utility of transfer learning. In order to confirm the validity of the obtained results, we repeated the experiments several times and applied statistical tests to confirm the significance of the results. The study shows when, within the set experimental framework, the transfer of knowledge brought improvements in terms of model accuracy and in terms of model convergence rate.<br><br>Our results show that it is possible to achieve better performance and faster convergence by transferring knowledge from the domain of global earthquakes to the domain of local earthquakes; sometimes also vice versa. However, improvements in seismology can sometimes also be achieved by transferring knowledge from medical and audio domains. The results show that the transfer of knowledge between other domains brought even more significant improvements, compared to those within the field of seismology. For example, it has been shown that models in the field of sound recognition have achieved much better performance compared to classical models and that the domain of sound recognition is very compatible with knowledge from other domains. We came to similar conclusions for the domains of medicine and finance. Ultimately, the paper offers suggestions when transfer learning is useful, and the explanations offered can provide a good starting point for knowledge transfer using time series data.</p>

An intelligent hybridization of ARIMA with machine learning models for time series forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 72-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domingos S. de O. Santos Júnior ◽  
João F.L. de Oliveira ◽  
Paulo S.G. de Mattos Neto
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

scholarly journals Assessing Continuous Operator Workload With a Hybrid Scaffolded Neuroergonomic Modeling Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett J. Borghetti ◽  
Joseph J. Giametta ◽  
Christina F. Rusnock
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Training Data ◽  
State Assessments ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Dynamic Task ◽  
Operator Workload ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Objective: We aimed to predict operator workload from neurological data using statistical learning methods to fit neurological-to-state-assessment models. Background: Adaptive systems require real-time mental workload assessment to perform dynamic task allocations or operator augmentation as workload issues arise. Neuroergonomic measures have great potential for informing adaptive systems, and we combine these measures with models of task demand as well as information about critical events and performance to clarify the inherent ambiguity of interpretation. Method: We use machine learning algorithms on electroencephalogram (EEG) input to infer operator workload based upon Improved Performance Research Integration Tool workload model estimates. Results: Cross-participant models predict workload of other participants, statistically distinguishing between 62% of the workload changes. Machine learning models trained from Monte Carlo resampled workload profiles can be used in place of deterministic workload profiles for cross-participant modeling without incurring a significant decrease in machine learning model performance, suggesting that stochastic models can be used when limited training data are available. Conclusion: We employed a novel temporary scaffold of simulation-generated workload profile truth data during the model-fitting process. A continuous workload profile serves as the target to train our statistical machine learning models. Once trained, the workload profile scaffolding is removed and the trained model is used directly on neurophysiological data in future operator state assessments. Application: These modeling techniques demonstrate how to use neuroergonomic methods to develop operator state assessments, which can be employed in adaptive systems.

scholarly journals Predicting Benzene Concentration Using Machine Learning and Time Series Algorithms

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 2205
Author(s):  
Luis Alfonso Menéndez García ◽  
Fernando Sánchez Lasheras ◽  
Paulino José García Nieto ◽  
Laura Álvarez de Prado ◽  
Antonio Bernardo Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Environmental Pollutants ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Benzene Concentration ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Benzene is a pollutant which is very harmful to our health, so models are necessary to predict its concentration and relationship with other air pollutants. The data collected by eight stations in Madrid (Spain) over nine years were analyzed using the following regression-based machine learning models: multivariate linear regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) and vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models. Benzene concentration predictions were made from the concentration of four environmental pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10) and toluene (C7H8), and the performance measures of the model were studied from the proposed models. In general, regression-based machine learning models are more effective at predicting than time series models.

An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting

2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 594-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesreen K. Ahmed ◽  
Amir F. Atiya ◽  
Neamat El Gayar ◽  
Hisham El-Shishiny
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Machine Learning Models

scholarly journals Three machine learning models for the 2019 Solubility Challenge

ADMET & DMPK ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Challenge Test ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
The Third ◽  
Aqueous Solubilities ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Better Than

<p class="ADMETabstracttext">We describe three machine learning models submitted to the 2019 Solubility Challenge. All are founded on tree-like classifiers, with one model being based on Random Forest and another on the related Extra Trees algorithm. The third model is a consensus predictor combining the former two with a Bagging classifier. We call this consensus classifier Vox Machinarum, and here discuss how it benefits from the Wisdom of Crowds. On the first 2019 Solubility Challenge test set of 100 low-variance intrinsic aqueous solubilities, Extra Trees is our best classifier. One the other, a high-variance set of 32 molecules, we find that Vox Machinarum and Random Forest both perform a little better than Extra Trees, and almost equally to one another. We also compare the gold standard solubilities from the 2019 Solubility Challenge with a set of literature-based solubilities for most of the same compounds.</p>

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