Deviations in Predicted COVID-19 cases in the US during early months of 2021 relate to rise in B.1.526 and its family of variants

AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the abrogation of COVID-19 case declines from predicted rates in the US in relationship to viral variants and mutations.DesignEpidemiological prediction and time series study of COVID-19 in the US by State.SettingCommunity testing and sequencing of COVID-19 in the US.ParticipantsTime series US COVID-19 case data from the Johns Hopkins University CSSE database. Time series US Variant and Mutation data from the GISAID database.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcomes were statistical modeling of US state deviations from epidemiological predictions, percentage of COVID-19 variants, percentage of COVID-19 mutations, and reported SARS-CoV-2 infections.ResultsDeviations in epidemiological predictions of COVID-19 case declines in the North Eastern US in March 2021 were highly positively related to percentage of B.1.526 (Iota) lineage (p < 10e − 7) and B.1.526.2 (p < 10 − 8) and the T95I mutation (p < 10e − 9). They were related inversely to B.1.427 and B.1.429 (Epsilon) and there was a trend for association with B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage.ConclusionDeviations from accurate predictive models are useful for investigating potential immune escape of COVID-19 variants at the population level. The B.1.526 and B.1.526.2 lineages likely have a high potential for immune escape and should be designated as variants of concern. The T95I mutation which is present in the B.1.526, B.1.526.2, and B.1.617.2 (Delta) lineages in the US warrants further investigation as a mutation of concern.

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Regional differences in modelled net production and shallow remineralization in the North Atlantic subtropical Gyre

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-8-12477-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 12477-12519 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

B. Fernández-Castro ◽

L. Anderson ◽

E. Marañón ◽

S. Neuer ◽

B. Ausín ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Regional Differences ◽

Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽

Net Production ◽

Time Series Study ◽

The North ◽

European Station ◽

Lateral Advection ◽

Series Study

Abstract. We used 5-year concomitant data of tracers distribution from the BATS (Bermuda Time-series Study) and ESTOC (European Station for Time-Series in the Ocean, Canary Islands) sites to build a 1-D tracer model conservation including horizontal advection and compute net production and shallow remineralization rates at both sites. Net production rates computed below the mixed layer to 110 m from April to December for oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrate at BATS (1.34 ± 0.79 mol O2 m−2, −1.73 ± 0.52 mol C m−2 and −125 ± 36 mmol N m−2) showed no statistically significant differences compared to ESTOC (1.03 ± 0.62 mol O2 m−2, −1.42 ± 0.30 mol C m−2 and −213 ± 56 mmol N m−2). Shallow remineralization rates between 110 and 250 m computed at ESTOC (−3.9 ± 1.0 mol O2 m−2, 1.53 ± 0.43 mol C m−2 and 38 ± 155 mmol N m−2) were statistically higher for oxygen compared to BATS (−1.81 ± 0.37 mol O2 m−2, 1.52 ± 0.30 mol C m−2 and 147 ± 43 mmol N m−2). Lateral advection, which was more significant at ESTOC, was responsible for the differences in estimated oxygen remineralization rates between both stations. Due to the relevance of the horizontal transport at ESTOC, we cannot assert that the differences in shallow remineralization rates computed for both stations can explain the observed descrepancies in the flux of sinking organic matter.

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Time-series study of the biogeochemistry of the North East subarctic Pacific: reconciliation of the Corg/N remineralization and uptake ratios with the Redfield ratios

Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography ◽

10.1016/s0967-0645(02)00211-4 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 49 (24-25) ◽

pp. 5717-5738 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

C.S. Wong ◽

N.A.D. Waser ◽

F.A. Whitney ◽

W.K. Johnson ◽

J.S. Page

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Subarctic Pacific ◽

Time Series Study ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

Redfield Ratios ◽

Series Study

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152 A time-series study of firearm purchasing following mass shooting events in the us

10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042560.152 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Gina Liu ◽

Douglas Wiebe

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Study ◽

The Us ◽

Mass Shooting ◽

Series Study

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Comparative analysis of death by suicide in Brazil and in the United States: descriptive, cross-sectional time series study

Sao Paulo Medical Journal ◽

10.1590/1516-3180.2016.0207091216 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 135 (2) ◽

pp. 150-156 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alexander Abuabara ◽

Allan Abuabara ◽

Carin Albino Luçolli Tonchuk

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Time Series ◽

The United States ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Gini Coefficients ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

The Us ◽

The World ◽

Series Study

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization recognizes suicide as a public health priority. Increased knowledge of suicide risk factors is needed in order to be able to adopt effective prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the association between the Gini coefficient (which is used to measure inequality) and suicide death rates over a 14-year period (2000-2013) in Brazil and in the United States (US). The hypothesis put forward was that reduction of income inequality is accompanied by reduction of suicide rates. DESIGN AND SETTING: Descriptive cross-sectional time-series study in Brazil and in the US. METHODS: Population, death and suicide death data were extracted from the DATASUS database in Brazil and from the National Center for Health Statistics in the US. Gini coefficient data were obtained from the World Development Indicators. Time series analysis was performed on Brazilian and American official data regarding the number of deaths caused by suicide between 2000 and 2013 and the Gini coefficients of the two countries. The suicide trends were examined and compared. RESULTS: Brazil and the US present converging Gini coefficients, mainly due to reduction of inequality in Brazil over the last decade. However, suicide rates are not converging as hypothesized, but are in fact rising in both countries. CONCLUSION: The hypothesis that reduction of income inequality is accompanied by reduction of suicide rates was not verified.

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