Health and Economic Consequences of Universal Paid Sick Leave Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Importance: Universal paid sick-leave (PSL) policies have been implemented in jurisdictions to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However empirical data regarding health and economic consequences of PSL policies is scarce. Objective: To estimate effects of a universal PSL policy in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. Design: An agent-based model (ABM) to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission informed by data from Statistics Canada, health administrative sources, and from the literature. Setting: Ontario from January 1st to May 1st, 2021. Participants: A synthetic population (1 million) with occupation and household characteristics representative of Ontario residents (14.5 million). Exposure: A base case of existing employer-based PSL alone versus the addition of a 3- or 10-day universal PSL policy to facilitate testing and self-isolation among workers infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves or because of infected household members. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): Number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations, worker productivity, lost wages, and presenteeism (going to a workplace while infected).