scholarly journals Intervention threshold for epidemic control in susceptible-infected-recovered metapopulation models

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akari Matsuki ◽  
Gouhei Tanaka
JAMA ◽  
1967 ◽  
Vol 200 (10) ◽  
pp. 811-814
Author(s):  
P. R. Nader

Author(s):  
Ting Wan Tan ◽  
Han Ling Tan ◽  
Man Na Chang ◽  
Wen Shu Lin ◽  
Chih Ming Chang

(1) Background: The implementation of effective control measures in a timely fashion is crucial to control the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to analyze the control measures implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as evaluating the responses and outcomes at different phases for epidemic control in Taiwan. (2) Methods: This case study reviewed responses to COVID-19 and the effectiveness of a range of control measures implemented for epidemic control in Taiwan and assessed all laboratory-confirmed cases between 11 January until 20 December 2020, inclusive of these dates. The confirmation of COVID-19 infection was defined as the positive result of a reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction test taken from a nasopharyngeal swab. Test results were reported by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and testing rate were compiled, and the risk ratio was provided to gain insights into the effectiveness of prevention measures. (3) Results and Discussion: This study presents retrospective data on the COVID-19 incidence rate in Taiwan, combined with the vital preventive control measures, in a timeline of the early stage of the epidemic that occurred in Taiwan. The implementation of multiple strategy control measures and the assistance of technologies to control the COVID-19 epidemic in Taiwan led to a relatively slower trend in the outbreak compared to the neighboring countries. In Taiwan, 766 confirmed patients were included, comprised of 88.1% imported cases and 7.2% local transmission cases, within the studied period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 in Taiwan during the studied period was 32 per million people, with a mortality rate of 0.3 per million people. Our analysis showed a significantly raised incidence risk ratio in the countries of interest in comparison to Taiwan during the study period; in the range of 1.9 to 947.5. The outbreak was brought under control through epidemic policies and hospital strategies implemented by the Taiwan Government. (4) Conclusion: Taiwan’s preventive strategies resulted in a drastically lower risk for Taiwan nationals of contracting COVID-19 when new pharmaceutical drug or vaccines were not yet available. The preventive strategies employed by Taiwan could serve as a guide and reference for future epidemic control strategies.


Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Yimin Zhu ◽  
Yongbin Gao ◽  
Guohui Zeng ◽  
Juan Zhang ◽  
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Author(s):  
Josefine Atzendorf ◽  
Stefan Gruber

AbstractEpidemic control measures that aim to introduce social distancing help to decelerate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their consequences in terms of mental well-being might be negative, especially for older adults. While existing studies mainly focus on the time during the first lockdown, we look at the weeks afterward in order to measure the medium-term consequences of the first wave of the pandemic. Using data from the SHARE Corona Survey, we include retired respondents aged 60 and above from 25 European countries plus Israel. Combining SHARE data with macro-data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker allows us to include macro-indicators at the country level, namely the number of deaths per 100,000 and the number of days with stringent epidemic control measures, in addition to individual characteristics. The findings show that both macro-indicators are influential for increased feelings of sadness/depression, but that individual factors are crucial for explaining increased feelings of loneliness in the time after the first lockdown. Models with interaction terms reveal that the included macro-indicators have negative well-being consequences, particularly for the oldest survey participants. Additionally, the results reveal that especially those living alone had a higher risk for increased loneliness in the time after the first COVID-19 wave.


2017 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éder A. Gubiani ◽  
Sidinei M. Thomaz ◽  
Luis M. Bini ◽  
Pitágoras A. Piana

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-160
Author(s):  
Genessis Maldonado ◽  
María Intriago ◽  
Roberto Guerrero ◽  
Osvaldo Daniel Messina ◽  
Carlos Rios

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