Assessing symmetric price transmission by using threshold cointegration in Iranian egg market

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mona Aghabeygi ◽  
Federico Antonioli ◽  
Filippo Arfini
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Misspecification Error

Purpose Eggs bear an essential role in Iranian diet, primarily for their protein content. The egg production strictly depends on the price of inputs, that is corn used for poultry feeding. The upsurge in corn prices in recent years gave rise to both consumers’ and producers’ dissatisfaction, increasing production cost and the egg price in the final market. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price-transmission dynamics between corn and retail egg prices in Iran. Design/methodology/approach Individual commodity price series generally contain stochastic trends and they are non-stationary. Standard unit root and cointegration tests will be conducted in order to determine whether price series are stationary and whether they are cointegrated, respectively. The existence of cointegration between the two-price series depends on the nature of autoregressive process. If there is an asymmetric convergence between two variables, then Engle and Granger’s (1987) test can have a misspecification error and the result cannot indicate nature of variables. Threshold or asymmetric convergence test should be used, which can detect the asymmetric behavior of variables and threshold effects on series. Findings Results showed that, in the long run, owing to price transmission, any price shocks on corn price will be transmitted to the egg price. Practical implications Policy makers should implement input and output price policies to support producer and consumer in the retail market to increase consumer and producer welfare, and they should also control intermediaries in this market. Originality/value This research dealing with price transmission has been concerned only with applying time-series modeling techniques to price data. The main focus of this approach has been to characterize vertical price relationships by the extent, speed and nature of the adjustments through the supply chain to market shocks generated at different levels in the marketing process. Thus, it complements the marketing margin models, which are mainly concerned with testing for market imperfections and calculating the price transmission. Besides these points, particular importance has been given in this research to the question of symmetry of price adjustments.

scholarly journals Price dynamics of cryptocurrencies in parallel markets: evidence from Bitcoin exchanges in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Modenesi de Andrade ◽  
Fernando Barros Jr ◽  
Fabio Yoshio Motoki ◽  
Matheus Oliveira da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to study the dynamics of bitcoin prices in Brazil, a large emerging economy with an unregulated bitcoin market. Design/methodology/approach First, this study tests if the Law of One Price (LOOP) is valid for bitcoin prices in Brazil, conducting tests with data from three Brazilian exchanges. Next, this study documents bitcoin price dynamics in the short run by studying the price discovery mechanism in these exchanges. This study uses Information Share and Component Share, combining the two measures to obtain an Information Leadership Share (ILS) measure. Findings This study finds a common trend within bitcoin prices among a set of exchanges, with cointegration tests between the price series indicating that LOOP is valid in Brazilian markets in the long run. ILS indicated that, for closing prices, the most liquid exchange (Foxbit) leads discovery, whereas the least liquid (Local Bitcoin) lags, with Mercado Bitcoin in the middle both in terms of discovery and liquidity. Finally, this study provides evidence that the price variation in the market that leads price discovery can be used to construct an arbitrage in another exchange. Originality/value This research brings the first evidence of a price discovery mechanism for exchanges in Brazilian Reais. Although LOOP is valid in the long run, price leadership in bitcoin markets potentially create arbitrage opportunities in the short run. This study contributes to the growing literature of bitcoin prices with novel evidence from a large emerging economy.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

scholarly journals The world market for soybeans: price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade

Nova Economia ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario A. Margarido ◽  
Frederico A. Turolla ◽  
Carlos R. F. Bueno
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Market ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The World ◽  
The Law ◽  
The One

This paper investigates the price transmission in the world market for soybeans using time series econometrics models. The theoretical model developed by Mundlack and Larson (1992) is based on the Law of the One Price, which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run and allows for deviations in the short run. The international market was characterized by three relevant soybean prices: Rotterdam Port, Argentina and the United States. The paper estimates the elasticity of transmission of these prices into soybean prices in Brazil. There were carried causality and cointegration tests in order to identify whether there is significant long-term relationship among these variables. There was also calculated the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the transmission of variations in the international prices over Brazilian prices. An exogeneity test was also carried out so as to check whether the variables respond to short term deviations from equilibrium values. Results validated the Law of the One Price in the long run. In line with many studies, this paper showed that Brazil and Argentina can be seen as price takers as long as the speed of their adjustment to shocks is faster than in the United States, the latter being a price maker.

Testing for bubbles in housing markets: some evidence for Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 754-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria ◽  
Nelson Leitão Paes ◽  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose Housing prices in Brazil have displayed an impressive growth in recent years, raising some concerns about the existence of a bubble in housing markets. In this paper, the authors implement an empirical methodology to identify whether or not there is a bubble in housing markets in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach Based on a theoretical model that establish that, in the absence of a bubble, a long-run equilibrium relationship should be observed between the market price of an asset and its dividends. The authors implement two methodologies. First, the authors assess whether there is a cointegration relationship between housing prices and housing rental prices. Second, the authors test whether the price-to-rent ratio is stationary. Findings The authors’ results show that there is evidence of a bubble in housing prices in Brazil. However, given the short span of the data, the authors perform a Monte Carlo simulation and show that the cointegration tests may be biased in small samples. Therefore, the authors should be caution when assessing the results. Research limitations/implications The results obtained from the cointegration analysis can be biased for small samples. Practical implications The information on the excessive increase of the prices of the properties in relation to their fundamental value can help in the decision-making on investment of the economic agents. Social implications These results corroborate the hypothesis that Brazil has an excessive appreciation in housing prices, and, as Silva and Besarria (2018) have suggested, this behavior explains, in part, the fact that the central bank has taken this issue into account when deciding about the stance of monetary policy of Brazil. Originality/value The originality is linked to the use of the Gregory-Hansen method of cointegration in the identification of bubbles and discussion of the limitations of the research through Monte Carlo simulation.

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 746-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Abdullah Al-Masum ◽  
Chyi Lin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
National Level ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Market Fundamentals

PurposeHousing prices in Sydney have increased rapidly in the past three decades. This leads to a debate of whether Sydney housing prices have departed from macroeconomic fundamentals. However, little research has been devoted to this area. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by examining the long-run association between housing prices and market fundamentals. Further, it also examines the long-run determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the presence of long-run relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals with the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test. Thereafter, the determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney is assessed by using a vector error correction model.FindingsThe empirical results show that Sydney housing prices are cointegrated with market fundamentals in the long run. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that market fundamentals such as gross disposable income, housing supply, unemployment rate and gross domestic product are the key long-run determinants of Sydney housing prices, reflecting that Sydney housing prices, in general, can be explained by market fundamentals in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings enable more informed and practical policy and investment decision-making regarding the relation between housing prices and market fundamentals.Originality/valueThis paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the degree to which the behaviour of housing prices can be explained by market fundamentals, from a capital city instead of at a national level, using a relatively disaggregated dataset of housing price series for Greater Sydney.

Is Chinese or American maize price effective for trading and policy-making reference?

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 470-484
Author(s):  
Yunxian Yan ◽  
Lu Tian ◽  
Yuejie Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
American Maize ◽  
Futures Price

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discover an effective maize price for trading and policy-making reference by assessing the price transmission of the US spot and futures maize prices to Chinese counterparts. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply a systematic, quantitative method to analyze the integration between US and Chinese maize markets. Based on the residuals of the variables through error correction model, the directed acyclic graph (DAG) among six price variables is conducted. With consideration of the dependence on and direction of six price variables, the variance decomposition of each variable is calculated. Findings – This paper shows that the vertical price transmission passes from wholesale price to farm-gate price. The horizontal price transmission ranges from spot price to futures price at the domestic market and from the American spot price to domestic spot price, from the American spot price to domestic futures price and from the American futures price to domestic futures price. The American maize spot and futures prices, and in particular the spot price, have greater effects on domestic maize prices contemporaneously. It also indicates that the American spot price is the leader price in the long run at both maize markets. Originality/value – This paper contributes by using the DAG method in this paper. It also contributes by helping policy makers and market participants find the leading prices and offers insight into ways of gaining power of price setting in the maize market.

scholarly journals A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Chee-Wooi Hooy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the impact of China's export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Design/methodology/approach – The analytical framework comprises of both the export and trade balance models. Unit root and cointegration tests with break and error correction modeling are employed in the analyses. Findings – Regime shifts are evident in the long run where structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia crisis and China's accession into WTO. While the income effects are more apparent in most cases, the real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. Besides, the trade balance estimation is generally more consistent that the Chinese exports have exhibited complementary effects in the long-run, mainly for advanced export destination such as Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. On the whole, there is insufficient evidence to support the “PRC competitive threat”. Practical implications – The empirical evidence disfavors currency devaluation for current account correction and reveals that the fear for China effect might be over-projected. Closer regional collaboration and trade integration between the two nations are well expected. Originality/value – The paper assesses the China's crowding out effect and magnitudes of Malaysian export and trade balance elasticities with model specifications that consider structural breaks. The paper also assesses the macro dimension of income and real exchanges effects.

International capital inflows and labour immigration

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 1420-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelyn S. Devadason ◽  
Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and unskilled immigrants for a panel of 23 manufacturing industries in Malaysia, spanning the period 1985-2009. Design/methodology/approach The paper establishes the causal FDI-immigrant links within a multivariate model framework for the period 2000-2009, and in a univariate context for 1985-1999 and 1985-2009. Findings Based on heterogeneous panel cointegration tests, there is a long-run equilibrium between inward FDI, unskilled migrant share, output growth, export intensity and market concentration. The long-run cointegrating coefficient based on the fully modified least squares estimator suggests the presence of unskilled migrant workers a significant location determinant for inward FDI for the first sub-period and the overall period. The results of the panel vector error correction model further attest to causal links between unskilled migrant worker presence and inward FDI in the short- and long run. Bidirectional causality between inward capital and labour flows is present in the first sub-period and unidirectional causal links from unskilled migrants to inward FDI is evident for the overall period. Research limitations/implications The observed FDI-immigration (unskilled) links in manufacturing support the argument that inward FDI is induced by unskilled migration. The study reveals that unskilled immigration increases FDI inflows or rather “capital chases labour” in terms of international factor mobility. Practical implications This has profound implications for public policy as the government seeks to reduce its dependence on migrant workers. Policy coordination is therefore needed between regulating inflows of foreign capital and foreign labour so that implemented policies do not pull in different directions and undermine Malaysia’s attractiveness as a destination for FDI. Originality/value The large presence of unskilled migrants, an intrinsic characteristic (based on the new trade theory that includes factor endowments) of Malaysia, seems to be largely ignored when explaining FDI inflows to manufacturing, particularly so when the siting of MNCs in this sector have traditionally been in light scale manufacturing.

Financial development, FDI and economic growth: evidence from Sudan

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1236-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdalla Sirag ◽  
Samira SidAhmed ◽  
Hamisu Sadi Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is widely believed to be contingent on the development of the financial sector. Nevertheless, as the possibility that the effect of financial development on growth being contingent on FDI has been neglected in existing literature, the authors have investigated it in this paper. In general, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and FDI on economic growth in Sudan using annual data from 1970 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach Since most of the macroeconomic variables are subject to unit root problem, the time series data are assessed using unit root and cointegration tests with/without structural break. Moreover, the study uses the fully modified ordinary least squares and the dynamic ordinary least squares techniques to estimate the long-run model. Findings The results of the cointegration tests provide evidence that a long-run relationship exists among variables even after accounting for the structural break. The results show that financial development and FDI are positive and significant in explaining economic growth in Sudan. Financial development is found to be more beneficial to economic growth than FDI. Moreover, the findings reveal that FDI leads to better economic performance through financial development. Interestingly, the findings of the study show that the effect of financial development on economic growth is further enhanced by the inflows of FDI. Research limitations/implications The government should focus on promoting FDI in more productive sectors. In addition, further cooperation with multinational enterprises is needed to increase FDI in the country. Originality/value This is the first paper that empirically examines both the interlinked impact of FDI on growth through financial development and the impact of financial development on economic growth through FDI in Sudan using appropriate econometric methods.

scholarly journals The nexus between external debt, corruption and economic growth: evidence from five SSA countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of external debt and corruption on economic growth in the selected five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, from 1990 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed to test for stationarity of the series and the long-run relationship, respectively. Fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS techniques are also employed to examine the long-run coefficients of the variables of the model, as well as panel Granger causality test, in order to examine the direction of causality among the variables. Findings The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between external debt and economic growth, as well as a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The findings also indicate a positive relationship between corruption and economic growth, as well as a uni-directional causality running from economic growth through corruption. Research limitations/implications The study recommends that the governments of the selected countries should address the menace of rising external debt through the adoption of other sources of capital for investment. Such include more openness of the economy for more capital, by easing restrictions on genuine imports and exports of valuable goods and services. It also suggests that the issue of corruption be tackled head-on, by such penalties that tend to make corruption less attractive. Originality/value While the relationship between economic growth and external debt, on the one hand, and corruption and economic growth, on the other hand, have received considerable attentions, the trio of external debt, corruption and economic growth have not been found combined in a model, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Also, the countries under consideration, who jointly account for about 47 percent of the entire SSA countries’ stock of external debt, have not been jointly found in any recent panel studies involving the selected variables.

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