Project scheduling and performance prediction: a fuzzy-Bayesian network approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pejman Rezakhani
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Process Time ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unknown Risk ◽  
And Performance

PurposeDespite the extensive research in project risk management and availability of several techniques and tools, quantifying uncertainty in project schedules remains a challenge. Current risk analysis models suffer from several shortcomings that need to be addressed to provide more reliable and valid schedules. This paper aims to present a dynamic decision support system with the purpose of providing project managers with necessary tool for making real-time informed decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed approach incorporates the widely accepted critical path method (CPM) calculations in a Bayesian network (BN). BN is employed to conduct inferencing and causal analysis and provide probabilistic results, which can improve the decision-making process. Time parameters of each activity in the CPM network is modeled by a set of simulation nodes in the BN. Prior probability distribution of activities duration is extracted from experts using a fuzzy analytical solution.FindingsThe model proposed in this paper is able to address some key outstanding issues of current project scheduling techniques through: (1) modeling the causality among different sources of schedule uncertainty, (2) minimizing uncertainty in experts' evaluations, (3) assessing effects of unknown risk factors and (4) using actual activity data for learning the behavior of project and predicting crew productivity.Originality/valueThe purposed methodology provides a framework for the new generation of project schedule analysis tools that are better informed by available knowledge and data, and hence, more reliable and useful.

scholarly journals Integrated model for the stressors, stress, stress-coping behaviour of construction project managers in the UK

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 761-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamil George Naoum ◽  
Carlos Herrero ◽  
Charles Egbu ◽  
Daniel Fong
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Structural Equation Modelling ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Stress Coping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equation Modelling ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose It is axiomatic that construction is a fast-paced and competitive industry, which goes hand in hand with many construction professionals suffering from stress including construction project managers (C-PMs). The role of C-PMs is crucial to achieving project success as they are responsible for planning the project, organising human resources, controlling operations and the budget, and forecasting probable difficulties. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationships between stressors, stresses, stress-coping behaviours and their impact on the performance of C-PMs. Design/methodology/approach To investigate the relationships between stress and performance among C-PMs, a questionnaire was designed based on the extensive literature, and was sent to 150 C-PMs who had amassed at least five years’ direct working experience in the construction industry. A total of 44 completed questionnaires were returned. Correlation analysis and structural equation modelling were employed to understand the integrated relationships between these factors. Based on the data collected and analysis of the results, an integrated structural equation model of the stresses and performances of C-PMs was developed using AMOS version 22.0. Findings The results of structural equation modelling reveal the following: burnout is the type of stress that has the highest impact on the performance of C-PMs, being detrimental to their interpersonal performance (IPP) and positive for their organisational performance (OP), whereas physiological stress worsens the task performance of C-PMs and objective stress improves their IPP. The most active stressor towards the performance of C-PMs is “workgroup cooperation”, which has an impact on the IPP in a positive way but is detrimental to the OP. Career-developing environment, poor organisational structure and role conflict affect both stress and performance together. Originality/value This study provides a comprehensive investigation into the impact of various types of stress on the performances of C-PMs. The result constitutes a significant step towards the stress management of C-PMs in the dynamic and stressful construction industry.

Project portfolio risk analysis with the consideration of project interdependencies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Libiao Bai ◽  
Huijing Shi ◽  
Shuyun Kang ◽  
Bingbing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
High Stake ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Portfolios ◽  
Interdependent Risks

PurposeComprehensive project portfolio risk (PPR) analysis is essential for the success and sustainable development of project portfolios (PPs). However, project interdependency creates complexity for PPR analysis. In this study, considering the interdependency effect among projects, the authors develop a quantitative evaluation model to analyze PPR based on a fuzzy Bayesian network.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the primary purpose is to comprehensively evaluate project portfolio risk considering the interdependency effect using a systematical model. Accordingly, a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) is developed based on the existing studies. Specifically, first, the risks in project portfolios are identified from the project interdependencies perspective. Second, a fuzzy Bayesian network is adopted to model and quantify the interaction relationships among risks. Finally, the model is implemented to analyze the occurrence situation and characteristics of risks.FindingsThe interdependency effect can lead to high-stake risks, including weak financial liquidity, a lack of cross-project members and project priority imbalance. Furthermore, project schedule risks and inconsistency between product supply and market demand are relatively sensitive and should also be prioritized. Also, the validity of this risk evaluation model has been proved.Originality/valueThe findings identify the most sensitive risks for guaranteeing portfolio implementation and reveal interdependency effect can trigger some specific risks more often. This study proposes for the first time to measure and analyze project portfolio risk by a systematical model. It can help systematically assess and manage the complicated and interdependent risks associated with project portfolios.

The multi resource leveling and materials procurement problem: an integrated approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2135-2161
Author(s):  
Hessa Almatroushi ◽  
Moncer Hariga ◽  
Rami As'ad ◽  
AbdulRahman Al-Bar
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Lot Sizing ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Sequential Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordering Policy ◽  
Solution Methods

PurposeThis paper proposes an integrated approach that seeks to jointly optimize project scheduling and material lot sizing decisions for time-constrained project scheduling problems.Design/methodology/approachA mixed integer linear programming model is devised, which utilizes the splitting of noncritical activities as a mean toward leveling the renewable resources. The developed model minimizes renewable resources leveling costs along with consumable resources related costs, and it is solved using IBM ILOG CPLEX optimization package. A hybrid metaheuristic procedure is also proposed to efficiently solve the model for larger projects with complex networks structure.FindingsThe results confirmed the significance of the integrated approach as both the project schedule and the material ordering policy turned out to be different once compared to the sequential approach under same parameter settings. Furthermore, the integrated approach resulted in substantial total costs reduction for low values of the acquiring and releasing costs of the renewable resources. Computational experiments conducted over 240 test instances of various sizes, and complexities illustrate the efficiency of the proposed metaheuristic approach as it yields solutions that are on average 1.14% away from the optimal ones.Practical implicationsThis work highlights the necessity of having project managers address project scheduling and materials lot sizing decisions concurrently, rather than sequentially, to better level resources and minimize materials related costs. Significant cost savings were generated through the developed model despite the use of a small-scale example which illustrates the great potential that the integrated approach has in real life projects. For real life projects with complex network topology, practitioners are advised to make use of the developed metaheuristic procedure due to its superior time efficiency as compared to exact solution methods.Originality/valueThe sequential approach, wherein a project schedule is established first followed by allocating the needed resources, is proven to yield a nonoptimized project schedule and materials ordering policy, leading to an increase in the project's total cost. The integrated approach proposed hereafter optimizes both decisions at once ensuring the timely completion of the project at the least possible cost. The proposed metaheuristic approach provides a viable alternative to exact solution methods especially for larger projects.

BT Wholesale pilots online coaching and mentoring

2007 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 20-22
Keyword(s):  
Personal Development ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Pilot Program ◽  
Operations Planning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Effectiveness ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Innovative Thinking ◽  
And Performance

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe a coaching and mentoring pilot program, using multimedia technology, at BT Wholesale.Design/methodology/approachExplains how the company tested “next generation” coaching and performance‐support tools during the three‐month pilot involving 80 consultants, project managers and support staff in the operations‐planning and central‐change team. Reveals the main findings from the pilot program.FindingsReveals that participants benefited in their personal effectiveness and ability to manage stressful situations. The pilot indicates that raising productivity by between 10 and 15 percent is feasible as a typical outcome. Results of the post‐pilot evaluation show that participants agreed program could support innovative thinking practices (76 percent), has the potential positively to affect leadership styles and behaviors (64 percent) and could underpin training programs and learning application in the workplace (70 percent).Practical implicationsIndicates that information technology can make it cost‐effective for a firm to spread the benefits of coaching and mentoring to a wider range of workers.Originality/valueShows that many participants believed that the coaching would add further value by underpinning other personal development, change and stress‐management initiatives.

Critical Sequences and Resource Links Optimization in Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (05) ◽  
pp. 1850032
Author(s):  
Wan-An Cui
Keyword(s):  
Resource Availability ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Translation Method ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Resource Constrained ◽  
Availability Constraints ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Specific Activities ◽  
Computing Speed

In order to identify critical activities and critical sequences under resource availability constraints, resource dependencies need to be established. By doing this, project managers and practitioners can focus their limited energy on specific activities and paths during the execution of a project schedule, thus guaranteeing that the project gets finished on time and with the available resources. This study proposes various rules to judge the superiority or inferiority of the methods of dependencies’ creation. The total number of critical sequences which is one of these rules, directly influences the degree of difficulty in controlling the whole project — a major concern for project managers. This study classifies activities in a resource-constrained project schedule on the basis of the relationships between activities and develops the basic idea behind the optimization of resource dependencies. Specifically, two mathematical models to minimize the total number of critical sequences and that of resource links through the table translation method are proposed. A computation example shows great improvement in the number of critical sequences, critical activities and resource links and gives effective results while solving the problems in the previous research. Moreover, simulations using J30, J60, and J120 instances by Kolisch highlight the high computing speed when searching for the actual minimum number of critical sequences and resource links thanks to the table translation method.

A Big Data and FMEA-based construction quality risk evaluation model considering project schedule for Shanghai apartment projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guofeng Ma ◽  
Ming Wu
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Construction Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Quality ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Quality Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to mine information on the construction process of previous projects to develop a construction plan that meets both quality requirements and schedule constraints. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a failure mode and effect analysis to evaluate the construction quality of 311 apartments in Shanghai. The authors also evaluate construction-scheduling control using the earned value management technique and implement an artificial neural network to correlate the results. The authors then develop a quality risk and schedule correlation model based on Big Data. The model can predict the relationship between the planned schedule and the project quality risk using multiple variables such as the number of layers, the schedule performance index and budget costs. Findings The methodology offers an innovative approach for assessment on the relationship between quality risk and project schedule. The authors have also built a multiple regression analysis model for comparative purposes with the model. The results show that the proposed model can better describe the relationship. The model can provide a quantitative quality risk value that changes with the planned schedule, as well as help project managers to understand the relationship between quality risk and project scheduling more accurately. Research limitations/implications The research approach only focuses on quality risk under the impact of scheduling. Future efforts might focus on developing a model that connects failure models with project schedules and costs in order to improve the effort of quality management. Practical implications The model based on Big Data in this paper is developed using real projects and reflects the relationship between project quality risk and scheduling in real environments. The created application provides support for project managers to develop and adjust quality plans and schedules, thereby reducing deviations in quality and scheduling objectives. Originality/value The authors make full use of historical project data from the perspective of both quality and schedule management, and provide a novel method to intelligently and objectively analyze the relationship between quality risk and scheduling.

Project scheduling by incorporating potential quality loss cost in time-cost tradeoff problems

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1187-1204
Author(s):  
Amin Mahmoudi ◽  
Saad Ahmed Javed
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Original Method ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Quality Loss ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Models

Purpose The study aims to introduce two new models of project scheduling by incorporating potential quality loss cost (PQLC) in time–cost tradeoff problems by overcoming the drawbacks of the existing Kim, Khang and Hwang (KKH) model. The proposed methods are named the Revised KKH-I (RKKH-I) and Revised KKH-II (RKKH-II) models for project scheduling. Design/methodology/approach The performance of the existing KKH model has been tested using a numerical example followed by the identification of the main shortcomings of the KKH method. Later, a concrete effort has been made to address its shortcomings while improving its performance significantly. The comparative analysis of the Revised KKH models with the original model has also been presented along with sensitivity analyses. Findings The study recognizes that the construct on which the original KKH method was built is important; however, certain drawbacks make it unable to consider PQLC in projects, thus making its practical use questionable. The comparative analysis of the proposed methodology with the original method demonstrated that the new models (RKHH-I and II) are more comprehensive and intelligent than the existing KKH model. Originality/value The comparative analysis of the original KKH model and its improved version reveals that the revised model is far more suitable for project scheduling. The study is important for project managers who recognize project scheduling being one of the key parameters associated with project management process, crucial to control every day during the management of projects.

Determining the relationship between conflict factors and performance of international construction projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyad Zouher Al-Sibaie ◽  
Ali Mohammed Alashwal ◽  
Hamzah Abdul-Rahman ◽  
Umi Kalsum Zolkafli
Keyword(s):  
Internal Control ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Path Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Team Members ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
And Performance

Purpose – Conflict was recognized as a major cause of inefficiency and limited performance of construction projects. Factors pertaining to conflict in construction are vast; however, there have been less recognition of these factors in international construction projects. The purpose of this paper is to provide in-depth understanding of conflict in this context and analyze how it influences project performance. Design/methodology/approach – A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from 161 professionals working in Malaysian companies, which are undertaking construction projects overseas. Findings – Analyzing the data using factor analysis revealed six new factors of conflict: external, internal, control-related, knowledge-related, mismanagement, and social conflicts. Further analysis of the data using partial least squares-path modeling (PLS-PM) affirmed a significant relationship between project performance and two factors of conflict only: internal and social. The results also showed that conflict contributes to about 27 percent of the variance in project performance. Originality/value – This paper provided a clear picture for project managers and team members about specific aspects of conflict and how to mitigate them to attain better performance of international construction projects.

I rather share my knowledge

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasha Afshar Jalili
Keyword(s):  
Performance Management ◽  
Reward System ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Design Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Organizational Procedures

Purpose This paper aims to propose an approach by understanding how Oil Industries’ Commissioning and Operation Company (OICO) company fostered its knowledge sharing (KS) by using gamification approach and nudge theory. It also ascertains the process and challenges that OICO confronted during its three-year journey for improving its organizational knowledge performance. Design/methodology/approach The study used a qualitative research method and case study design. Data were collected from several sources, including the first-hand experiences and observations of the author during contributing in the company’s canonical action research, several in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted with the KM Department team members, the data gathered from the company’s KM software and studying the related organizational procedures and documents. Findings The results reveal that the gamification approach suits for developing KS reward system and knowledge performance management. It also explains that informing project managers about their project’s knowledge performance accompanied by emoticons would lead to higher supports of KM. The proposed approach by this case study improved the organizational KS and performance by 22 per cent semi-annually. Practical implications The described case is detailed deeply and would help KMers to follow it easily. The study would spark some ideas of how to use nudge theory in KM context. Besides, KMers can design a KM reward system based on the explained case. Originality/value This study contributes to the KS and KM rewarding system, especially in project-based organizations, as limited studies have been conducted to investigate the roles that the gamification approach can play in this field. Moreover, this is the first time that use of nudge theory and choice architecture is investigated in the context of KM.

A Case Study on the Optimization of Runway Reconstruction Project Scheduling Based on the Supervision Management Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 971-973 ◽  
pp. 1029-1032
Author(s):  
Yu Lin Yang ◽  
Bao Lei Su
Keyword(s):  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Process Time ◽  
Time Interleaving ◽  
Construction Time ◽  
Schedule Optimization ◽  
Network Diagram ◽  
Reconstruction Project ◽  
The One ◽  
Schedule Network

In view of the time interleaving of the relevant processes in runway reconstruction project and the simplification of the relevant processes in current schedule optimization models, runway reconstruction project scheduling is treated the same way as the ordinary construction project, which can’t meet the requirement of the efficient use of limited daily construction time. Statistics of the daily supervision management data in an actual runway reconstruction project are analyzed according to each process respectively. The law of data distribution can help to judge the reliability of the planed schedule and some process with actual physical meaning can be divided into several processes having no physical meanings as the process time interleaving taken into consideration. Then a new equivalent schedule network diagram with independent processes is built to replace the old one and the Critical Path Method (CPM) technique can be used to solve this mathematic problem and develop a schedule. The schedule plan from the modified schedule network diagram can prove the validity of the modified optimization model compared with the one from the ordinary schedule plan method.

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