On ethnicity of idiosyncratic risk and stock returns puzzle

Humanomics ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naseem Al Rahahleh ◽  
Iman Adeinat ◽  
Ishaq Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand the controversial issue of whether stock returns and idiosyncratic risks are related positively or negatively in case of Singaporean ethically poor screened stocks. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the major objectives of this paper, it uses a multiple regression to explore the relationship between expected stock returns and idiosyncratic risk. The paper replicates the Lee and Faff’s (2009) three-factor capital asset-pricing model (CAPM) model in creating the six size/book-to-market portfolios from which it constructs the small minus big (SMB) and high minus low (HML) portfolios that capture the size and book-to-market equity factors, respectively. Findings – The basic finding of the paper is that there is a strong relation between idiosyncratic risk and the expected stock returns. In more details, we observe that the portfolio of stocks with the highest idiosyncratic volatility generates higher average returns (4.36 per cent) than the portfolio of stocks with the lowest idiosyncratic volatility (0.79 per cent) over the sample period. The paper observes that the stock’s idiosyncratic volatility is inversely correlated with the size of the underlying firm. Moreover, there is a pattern of relationships nearer the periods of financial crises: Asian and global financial crises. Research limitations/implications – This paper uses only a three-factor model on a single country. So it cannot be generalized to a multi-country level in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, as the structure of each member country is different. Practical implications – This paper provides guidelines for policymakers and foreign investors in Singapore about the relationship. This research can also be extended to other ASEAN countries to understand this puzzle. Social implications – Ethically sensitive and faithful investors with small investment can benefit from the findings of this paper. Originality/value – The work reported in this paper is original, unpublished and is also not under consideration for publication elsewhere.

Heterogeneous beliefs and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mao He ◽  
Juncheng Huang ◽  
Hongquan Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Beliefs ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Puzzle ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle

PurposeThe purpose of our study is to explore the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle” in Chinese stock market from the perspective of investors' heterogeneous beliefs. To delve into the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and investors' heterogeneous beliefs, and uncover the ability of heterogeneous beliefs, as well as to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”, we construct our study as follows.Design/methodology/approachOur study adopts the unexpected trading volume as proxies of heterogeneity, the residual of Fama–French three-factor model as proxies of idiosyncratic volatility. Portfolio strategies and Fama–MacBeth regression are used to investigate the relationship between the two proxies and stock returns in Chinese A-share market.FindingsInvestors' heterogeneous beliefs, as an intermediary variable, are positively correlated with idiosyncratic volatility. Meanwhile, it could better demonstrate the negative correlation between the idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns. It is one of the economic mechanisms linking idiosyncratic volatility to subsequent stock returns, which can account for 11.28% of the puzzle.Originality/valueThe findings indicate that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly and positively correlated with heterogeneous beliefs and that heterogeneous beliefs are effective intervening variables to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”.

Information asymmetry and stock returns

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anshi Goel ◽  
Vanita Tripathi ◽  
Megha Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Three Factor

PurposeThis study endeavours to examine the relationship between information asymmetry and expected stock returns at the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, with a sample of NIFTY 500 stocks for a period ranging from 1st April 2000 to 31st March 2018, by employing three different proxies of information asymmetry: number of transactions, institutional ownership and idiosyncratic volatility.Design/methodology/approachThe return differential amongst information-sorted decile portfolios has been assessed to understand the effect of information risk on stock returns by employing (1) traditional measures of performance evaluation like mean, Sharpe,  Treynor and information ratios, (2) regression models like the capital asset pricing (CAPM), Fama and French three-factor, Carhart's four-factor, information-augmented CAPM, information-augmented Fama and French three-factor and information-augmented Carhart's four-factor models and (3) an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.FindingsThe empirical evidence indicated that as information asymmetry associated with portfolio increases, returns also expand to recompense investors for bearing information risk validating the existence of a significant positive relationship between information asymmetry and expected stock returns at the NSE. Amongst the various asset pricing models employed in this study, the information-augmented Fama and French three-factor model turned out to be the best in explaining cross-sectional variations in portfolio returns.Research limitations/implicationsStrong information premium was observed such that high information stocks outperformed low information stocks which have strong inference for investors and portfolio managers, who all continuously look out for investment strategies that can lend hand to beat the market.Originality/valueEasley and O'Hara (2004) proposed that stocks with more information asymmetry have higher expected returns. Very few studies have examined this relationship between information risk and stock returns that too restricted to the US market only, with a few on other emerging markets. No work has been conducted on the concerned issue in the Indian context. Therefore, it seems to be the first study to explore the relationship between information asymmetry and expected stock returns in the Indian securities market.

Fewer reasons to sin: a five-factor investigation of vice stock returns

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (9) ◽  
pp. 1016-1033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greg Richey
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
National Defense ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the return performance of a portfolio of US “vice stocks,” firms that manufacture and sell products such as alcohol, tobacco, gaming services, national defense and firearms, adult entertainment, and payday lenders. Design/methodology/approach Using daily return data from a portfolio of vice stocks over the period 1987-2016, the author computes the Jensen’s α (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)), Fama-French Three-Factor, Carhart Four-Factor, and Fama-French Five-Factor results for the complete portfolio, and each vice industry individually. Findings The results from the CAPM, Fama-French Three-Factor Model, and the Carhart Four-Factor Model show a positive and significant α for the vice portfolio throughout the sample period. However, the α’s significance disappears with the addition of the explanatory variables from the Fama-French Five-Factor Model. Originality/value The author provides academics and practitioners with results from a new model. As of this writing, the author is unaware of any articles published in peer-reviewed academic journals that investigate vice stocks within the framework of the Fama-French Five-Factor Model (2015). First, the existing literature does not shed light on the relationship between “profitability” and “aggressiveness” (the fourth and fifth factors of the Fama-French Model) and vice stock returns. Second, within the framework of the Fama-French Five-Factor Model, the author shows results not only from a portfolio of vice stocks, but from various vice industries as well.

Information risk, stock returns, and asset pricing: Evidence from China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 379-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raheel Safdar ◽  
Chen Yan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Accruals Quality ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose This study aims to investigate information risk in relation to stock returns of a firm and whether information risk is priced in China. Design/methodology/approach The authors used accruals quality (AQ) as their measure of information risk and performed Fama-Macbeth regressions to investigate association of AQ with future realized stock returns. Moreover, two-stage cross-sectional regression analysis was performed, both at firm level and at portfolio level, to test if the AQ factor is priced in China in addition to existing factors in the Fama French three-factor model. Findings The authors found poor AQ being associated with higher future realized stock returns. Moreover, they found evidence of market pricing of AQ in addition to existing factors in the Fama French three-factor model. Further, subsample analysis revealed that investors value AQ more in non-state owned enterprises than in state owned enterprises. Research limitations/implications The study sample comprises A-shares only and the generalization of the findings is limited by the peculiar institutional and economic setup in China. Originality/value This study contributes to market-based accounting literature by providing further insight into how and if investors value information risk, and it seeks to fill gap in empirical literature by providing evidence from the Chinese capital market.

scholarly journals Is idiosyncratic risk ignored in asset pricing: Sri Lankan evidence?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moinak Maiti
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Three Factor

AbstractThe present study focused on one of the important South Asian nations—Sri Lanka—to examine the role of idiosyncratic volatility in asset prices. A four-factor model with idiosyncratic volatility was designed for capturing the market, size, value and idiosyncratic risk yields better than Fama and French’s (J Financ Econ 33:3–56, 1993) three-factor model and performance of the model. Fama–MacBeth’s cross-sectional regression, residual graphs and GRS test all confirm the superiority of four-factor model over 2 three-factor models. For all MC- and IVOL-based portfolios, idiosyncratic volatility is negatively related to the expected returns and positively related for all PB-based portfolios. Finally, study findings confirm that there is a high importance for idiosyncratic volatility risk factor while considering investment decision in Colombo stock exchange. Hence, investor should compensate for holding such risk factors in the portfolio.

An extensile method on the arbitrage pricing theory based on downside risk (D-APT)

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdadabad ◽  
Paskalis Glabadanidis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
Pricing Theory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a new and improved version of arbitrage pricing theory (APT), namely, downside APT (D-APT) using the concepts of factors’ downside beta and semi-variance. Design/methodology/approach – This study includes 163 stocks traded on the Malaysian stock market and uses eight macroeconomic variables as the dependent and independent variables to investigate the relationship between the adjusted returns and the downside factors’ betas over the whole period 1990-2010, and sub-periods 1990-1998 and 1999-2010. It proposes a new version of the APT, namely, the D-APT to replace two deficient measures of factor's beta and variance with more efficient measures of factors’ downside betas and semi-variance to improve and dispel the APT deficiency. Findings – The paper finds that the pricing restrictions of the D-APT, in the context of an unrestricted linear factor model, cannot be rejected over the sample period. This means that all of the identified factors are able to price stock returns in the D-APT model. The robustness control model supports the results reported for the D-APT as well. In addition, all of the empirical tests provide support the D-APT as a new asset pricing model, especially during a crisis. Research limitations/implications – It may be worthwhile explaining the autocorrelation limitation between variables when applying the D-APT. Practical implications – The framework can be useful to investors, portfolio managers, and economists in predicting expected stock returns driven by macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the results are important to corporate managers who undertake the cost of capital computations, fund managers who make investment decisions and, investors who assess the performance of managed funds. Originality/value – This paper is the first study to apply the concepts of semi-variance and downside beta in the conventional APT model to propose a new model, namely, the D-APT.

Overreaction evidence from large-cap stocks

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 310-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tibebe Abebe Assefa ◽  
Omar A. Esqueda ◽  
Emilios C. Galariotis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifactor Models ◽  
Contrarian Strategy ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Investment Portfolios ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of a contrarian investment strategy focusing on frequently traded large-cap US stocks. Previous criticisms that losers’ gains are not due to overreaction but due to their tendency to be thinly traded and smaller-sized firms than winners are addressed. Design/methodology/approach – Portfolios based on past performance are constructed and it is examined whether contrarian returns exist. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama and French three-factor model and the Carhart’s (1997) momentum portfolio are used to test whether excess returns are feasible in a contrarian strategy. Findings – The results show an asymmetric performance following portfolio formation. Although both, winners and losers portfolios, have gains during holding periods, losers outperform winners at all times, and with a differential of up to 29.2 per cent 36 months after portfolio formation. Furthermore, the loser and the winner portfolios’ alphas are significant, suggesting that the CAPM and the multifactor models are unable to explain return differentials between winners and losers. Our evidence supports two main conclusions. First, stock market overreaction still holds for a sample of large firms. Second, this is robust to the Fama and French’s (1993, 1996) three-factor model and Carhart’s (1997) momentum portfolio. Findings emphasize the relevance of a contrarian strategy when rebalancing investment portfolios. Practical implications – Portfolio managers can improve stock returns by selling past winners and buying previous loser large-cap US stocks. Originality/value – This paper is the first, to the authors’ knowledge, to examine frequently traded large-cap US stocks to avoid infrequent trading and size concerns.

The Leader Support for Innovation Questionnaire (LSIQ)

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 898-915
Author(s):  
Sylvie Vincent-Höper ◽  
Maie Stein
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Organizational Innovation ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Idea Generation ◽  
Confirmatory Factor Analyses ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leader Support ◽  
Support For Innovation ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose In this study, the authors integrate the concept of leader support with a process model of innovation including the generation, promotion and implementation of innovative ideas to obtain an in-depth understanding of how leaders may support employees’ innovative efforts. The purpose of this paper is to develop an organizing framework and validate a measure for assessing leader support for innovation. Design/methodology/approach The authors validated the Leader Support for Innovation Questionnaire (LSIQ) in German and English using samples from Germany (n=1,049) and South Africa (n=129). Findings Although confirmatory factor analyses supported a three-factor model of the 12-item LSIQ (leader support for idea generation, promotion and implementation), strong intercorrelations between the factors provide only weak evidence for the three-factor structure. Positive correlations with individual and organizational innovation demonstrate adequate construct validity. The LSIQ explains additional variance in innovation beyond that explained by measures of transformational leadership and leader–member exchange. Research limitations/implications The findings suggest that linking leader support and innovation more directly to one another matches the complexity of innovation processes. The LSIQ is a theory based and valid tool that enables more rigorous research on the role of leadership in facilitating innovation. Originality/value Previous studies using well-established leadership approaches have produced a considerable heterogeneity of findings on the relationship between leadership and innovation. Therefore, the authors introduce an integrative framework for defining and organizing leadership behaviors specifically supporting employees’ innovative efforts and validate a measure of leader support for innovation that may guide both theoretical developments and empirical research on the relationship between leadership and innovation in organizations.

The role of efficiency in capital asset pricing: a research on Nasdaq technology sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1479-1493
Author(s):  
Hakan Aygoren ◽  
Emrah Balkan
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Efficiency Factor ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Three Factor

PurposeThe aim of this study is to investigate the role of efficiency in capital asset pricing. The paper explores the impact of a four-factor model that involves an efficiency factor on the returns of Nasdaq technology firms.Design/methodology/approachThe paper relies on data of 147 firms from July 2007 to June 2017 to examine the impact of efficiency on stock returns. The performances of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama–French three-factor model and the proposed four-factor model are evaluated based on the time series regression method. The parameters such as the GRS F-statistic and adjusted R² are used to compare the relative performances of all models.FindingsThe results show that all factors of the models are found to be valid in asset pricing. Also, the paper provides evidence that the explanatory power of the proposed four-factor model outperforms the explanatory power of the CAPM and Fama–French three-factor model.Originality/valueUnlike most asset pricing studies, this paper presents a new asset pricing model by adding the efficiency factor to the Fama–French three-factor model. It is documented that the efficiency factor increases the predictive ability of stock returns. Evidence implies that investors consider efficiency as one of the main factors in pricing their assets.

scholarly journals Volatility risk and stock return predictability on global financial crises

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Worawuth Kongsilp ◽  
Cesario Mateus
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Predictability ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bull Markets ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial crises: the dot-com bubble and recent financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using a broad sample of stock options traded on the American Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange from January 2001 to December 2010, the effect of different idiosyncratic volatility forecasting measures are examined on future stock returns in four different periods (Bear and Bull markets). Findings First, the authors find clear and robust empirical evidence that the implied idiosyncratic volatility is the best stock return predictor for every sub-period both in Bear and Bull markets. Second, the cross-section firm-specific characteristics are important when it comes to stock returns forecasts, as the latter have mixed positive and negative effects on Bear and Bull markets. Third, the authors provide evidence that short selling constraints impact negatively on stock returns for only a Bull market and that liquidity is meaningless for both Bear and Bull markets after the recent financial crisis. Practical implications These results would be helpful to disclose more information on the best idiosyncratic volatility measure to be implemented in global financial crises. Originality/value This study empirically analyses the effect of different idiosyncratic volatility measures for a period that involves both the dotcom bubble and the recent financial crisis in four different periods (Bear and Bull markets) and contributes the existing literature on volatility measures, volatility risk and stock return predictability in global financial crises.

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