Clustering the countries for quantifying the status of Covid-19 through time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Madurapperumage Erandathi ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
Chih-Chia Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government

Purpose This study aims to use financial stability and health facilities of countries, to cluster them for making a more consensus environment for manifesting the status of Covid-19 in a justifiable manner. The scarcity of the categorisation of the countries of the world in a common platform, and the requirement of manifesting the pandemic status such as Covid-19 in a justifiable manner create the demanding requirement. This study mainly focusses on assisting to generate a liable manifesto to criticise the span of viral infection of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 over the globe. Design/methodology/approach Data for this study has been gathered from official websites of the World Bank, and the world in data. The Louvain clustering method has been used to cluster the countries based on their financial strength and health facilities. The resulted clusters are visualised using Silhouette plots. The anomalies of the clusters had been used to quantify the pandemic situation. The status of Covid-19 has been manifested with the time series analysis through python programming. Findings The countries of the world have been clustered into seven, where developed countries divided into three clusters and the countries with transition economies and developing clustered together into four clusters. The time series analysis of recognised anomalies of the clusters assist to monitor the government responses and analyse the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic. Originality/value This study’s resulted clusters are highly valuable as a division of countries of the whole world for evaluating the health systems and for the regional levels. Further, the results of time series analysis are beneficial in monitoring the government responses and analysing the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic.

scholarly journals Did the UN convention on the rights of the child reduce child mortality around the world? An interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Tait ◽  
Abtin Parnia ◽  
Nishan Zewge-Abubaker ◽  
Wendy H. Wong ◽  
Heather Smith-Cannoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
Reduce Child Mortality ◽  
The World

Exploring the dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis based on time series analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linghe Huang ◽  
Qinghua Zhu ◽  
Jia Tina Du ◽  
Baozhen Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Rider Problem ◽  
Series Analysis

Purpose – Wiki is a new form of information production and organization, which has become one of the most important knowledge resources. In recent years, with the increase of users in wikis, “free rider problem” has been serious. In order to motivate editors to contribute more to a wiki system, it is important to fully understand their contribution behavior. The purpose of this paper is to explore the law of dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis. Design/methodology/approach – After developing a dynamic model of contribution behavior, the authors employed both the metrological and clustering methods to process the time series data. The experimental data were collected from Baidu Baike, a renowned Chinese wiki system similar to Wikipedia. Findings – There are four categories of editors: “testers,” “dropouts,” “delayers” and “stickers.” Testers, who contribute the least content and stop contributing rapidly after editing a few articles. After editing a large amount of content, dropouts stop contributing completely. Delayers are the editors who do not stop contributing during the observation time, but they may stop contributing in the near future. Stickers, who keep contributing and edit the most content, are the core editors. In addition, there are significant time-of-day and holiday effects on the number of editors’ contributions. Originality/value – By using the method of time series analysis, some new characteristics of editors and editor types were found. Compared with the former studies, this research also had a larger sample. Therefore, the results are more scientific and representative and can help managers to better optimize the wiki systems and formulate incentive strategies for editors.

scholarly journals Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines during Intensified Mission Indradhanush in India: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Clarke-Deelder ◽  
Christian Suharlim ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Logan Brenzel ◽  
Arindam Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization’s Global Vaccine Action Plan. In India, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines in 2016. We evaluated the Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a campaign-style intervention to increase routine immunization coverage and equity in India, implemented in 2017-2018.MethodsWe conducted a comparative interrupted time-series analysis using monthly district-level data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. We estimated the impact of IMI on coverage and under-coverage (defined as the proportion of children who were unvaccinated) during the four-month implementation period and in subsequent months.FindingsDuring implementation, IMI increased delivery of thirteen infant vaccines by between 1.6% (95% CI: −6.4, 10.2%) and 13.8% (3.0%, 25.7%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, IMI reduced under-coverage of childhood vaccination by between 3.9% (−6.9%, 13.7%) and 35.7% (−7.5%, 77.4%). The largest estimated effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diptheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio.InterpretationIMI had a substantial impact on infant immunization delivery during implementation, but this effect waned after implementation ended. Our findings suggest that campaign-style interventions can increase routine infant immunization coverage and reach formerly unreached children in the shorter term, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

scholarly journals A Time Series Analysis of the Nexus Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-91
Author(s):  
Amassoma Ditimi ◽  
Bolarinwa Ifeoluwa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Government

AbstractSince macroeconomic fundamentals have been found to play a vital role for changes in the economy of a country. Consequently, the onus is on the appropriate regulatory authorities to take measures in making amendments in these policies to put the economy on the right development track. The aim of this study is to use time series analysis to empirically showcase the nexus between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock prices in Nigeria. The method used for this study was the Co-integration test and the EGARCH technique to estimate the possible influence of the selected macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices. Volatility was captured by using quarterly data and estimated using GARCH (1,1) respectively. The study found there is a positive relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that the Federal authority should put in place policy measures that will enable the exchange rate to be relatively stabilized. This is because empirical evidence from studies has shown that exchange rate affects stock market prices. In addition, the government authority should ensure an enabling environment that would build the mindset of institutional investors in the Nigerian stock market due to the existence of information asymmetry problems among potential investors.

scholarly journals Temperature and mortality on the roof of the world: A time-series analysis in three Tibetan counties, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 485-486 ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Bai ◽  
Cirendunzhu ◽  
Alistair Woodward ◽  
Dawa ◽  
Xiraoruodeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on routine malaria indicators in rural Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane F. Namuganga ◽  
Jessica Briggs ◽  
Michelle E. Roh ◽  
Jaffer Okiring ◽  
Yasin Kisambira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Malaria Diagnosis ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Outpatient Visits ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background In March 2020, the government of Uganda implemented a strict lockdown policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was performed to assess whether major changes in outpatient attendance, malaria burden, and case management occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in rural Uganda. Methods Individual level data from all outpatient visits collected from April 2017 to March 2021 at 17 facilities were analysed. Outcomes included total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, proportion of patients with suspected malaria, proportion of patients tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and fractional regression was used to model count and proportion outcomes, respectively. Pre-COVID trends (April 2017-March 2020) were used to predict the’expected’ trend in the absence of COVID-19 introduction. Effects of COVID-19 were estimated over two six-month COVID-19 time periods (April 2020-September 2020 and October 2020–March 2021) by dividing observed values by expected values, and expressed as ratios. Results A total of 1,442,737 outpatient visits were recorded. Malaria was suspected in 55.3% of visits and 98.8% of these had a malaria diagnostic test performed. ITSA showed no differences between observed and expected total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, or proportion of visits with suspected malaria after COVID-19 onset. However, in the second six months of the COVID-19 time period, there was a smaller mean proportion of patients tested with RDTs compared to expected (relative prevalence ratio (RPR) = 0.87, CI (0.78–0.97)) and a smaller mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL (RPR = 0.94, CI (0.90–0.99)). Conclusions In the first year after the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in Uganda, there were no major effects on malaria disease burden and indicators of case management at these 17 rural health facilities, except for a modest decrease in the proportion of RDTs used for malaria diagnosis and the mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL in the second half of the COVID-19 pandemic year. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for changes in trends in malaria indicators so that Uganda can quickly and flexibly respond to challenges imposed by COVID-19.

Time Series Analysis of the Sex Composition of the Unemployed.

1983 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 153-178
Author(s):  
S. Haberman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Unemployment Benefit ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
General Terms ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Unemployed

This paper describes the use of time series analysis in the solution of a problem arising in social insurance. As part of a model which estimates the future cost of unemployment benefit the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) is required to forecast the proportion of the unemployed in future calendar quarters, who are male. The format of the paper is to describe forecasting in general terms in §1 and the particular problem under consideration in §2. In subsequent sections, the data available (§ 3), the existing forecasting model (§ 4) and alternative time series models (§§ 5–8) are described. The everyday job of the actuary involves the estimation of a future series of events. Examples include the estimation of future streams of liability outgo and asset income in life assurance, the run-off of outstanding claims in nonlife insurance, and the future numbers of persons in a subgroup of the total population. This estimation can be qualitative or quantitative, short-term or long-term, deterministic or stochastic and will involve the establishment of a mathematical-statistical model, and the determination of the relevant parameters by an analysis of the data available.

Nationality vs ethnic identity

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-233
Author(s):  
Frank Ching
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nationality Law

Purpose As far as governments are concerned, it is the nationality of a person, usually reflected in a passport, that shows whether the government has a duty to protect that individual and whether the person owes obligations to the state. Hong Kong is unusual in that for many people there, passports are primarily seen as documents that offer safety and security. It is not unusual for people to possess two or more passports. The purpose of this paper is to examine attitudes toward passports on the part of Hong Kong people, formed by their unique experience. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyzes key documents, such as China’s Nationality Law and a little known document, “Explanations of Some Questions by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress Concerning the Implementation of the Nationality Law of the People’s Republic of China in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.” The paper also looks at the Loh case of August 2016, involving a Canadian man who wanted a Hong Kong passport for his 11-year-old Canadian-born son, and the Patrick Tse case, where Hong Kong tried to strip a teenager who possessed German nationality of his Hong Kong passport. Findings The convenience of travel to China with a Home Return Permit seems to outweigh any sense of loyalty to an adopted country in the west, or the realization that the use of a document identifying its holder as a Chinese national means that she/he would not have any consular protection. It is also ironical that the Hong Kong Government should maintain the difference between nationality and ethnicity at a time when the Chinese Government is doing the very opposite, playing down the status of nationality while magnifying the importance of so-called “Chinese blood.” Originality/value This paper examines a topic that has not been widely studied but is likely to become more important in the years to come as China’s impact on the rest of the world increases. The nationality status of ethnic Chinese will increasingly become an issue as the flow of travel between China and other countries rises and Chinese immigrants continue to take up foreign nationality. While this issue is of special importance to Hong Kong, its impact will extend to countries around the world, in fact, to wherever Chinese persons are to be found.

Non-Linear Properties of the VIX Index

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
L. Magafas ◽  
M. Hanias ◽  
A. Tavlatou ◽  
P. Kostantaki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Strange Attractor ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stock Indexes

This paper applies non-linear methods to analyze and predict the daily VIX index which is one of the most important stock indexes in the world. The aim of the analysis is to quantitatively show if the corresponding time series is a deterministic chaotic one and if one or more days ahead prediction can be achieved. The research employs Grassberger and Procaccia's methodology in the time series analysis in order to estimate the correlation and minimum embedding dimensions of the corresponding strange attractor. To achieve from the sample a multistep ahead prediction, the article gives the average for overall neighbours' projections of k-steps into the future. These results make the present work a valuable tool for traders, investors, and funds.

scholarly journals Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256516
Author(s):  
Ali Hadianfar ◽  
Razieh Yousefi ◽  
Milad Delavary ◽  
Vahid Fakoor ◽  
Mohammad Taghi Shakeri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Social Interventions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Background Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis. Methods Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)’s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed. Results The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p<0.001)), while the implementation of social distancing measures was followed by a significant decrease in such cases (2,182.80; 95% CI, 1,556.56 to 2,809.04; p<0.001). Conclusion The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively. These results highlight the necessity of measuring the effect of health and social interventions for their future implementations.

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