Analysis and forecast of Tianjin’s industrial energy consumption

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongqing Zhu ◽  
Xiaoling Ge ◽  
Yang Wang ◽  
Zequn Ding

Purpose This paper aims to study the present situation of Tianjin industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and put forward constructive suggestions for future energy-saving emission reduction work. Design/methodology/approach Using the energy consumption data form the Tianjin’s Industrial Energy Efficiency Guide (TJBS, 2009-2013) and Tianjin’s Statistical Yearbook (NBS, 2006-2012), some models were able to predict the future with a high degree of accuracy. Findings With an average error of 3.06 per cent for the logistic regression model and an average error of 2.03 per cent for the gray model, the R2 for the energy elasticity model is 0.99158. It also indicated that between 2008 and 2012, the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value decreased by approximately 33.61 per cent. These results show that energy-saving efforts and the optimization of the industrial structure have increased the energy efficiency of Tianjin. Originality/value The authors think that their contribution refers to a combination between methodology of forecasting and industrial energy consumption.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 791
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Duan ◽  
Xian’en Wang ◽  
Xize Dong ◽  
Haiyan Duan ◽  
Junnian Song

Reducing CO2 emissions of industrial energy consumption plays a significant role in achieving the goal of CO2 emissions peak and decreasing total CO2 emissions in northeast China. This study proposed an extended STIRPAT model to predict CO2 emissions peak of industrial energy consumption in Jilin Province under the four scenarios (baseline scenario (BAU), energy-saving scenario (ESS), energy-saving and low-carbon scenario (ELS), and low-carbon scenario (LCS)). We analyze the influences of various factors on the peak time and values of CO2 emissions and explore the reduction path and mechanism to achieve CO2 emissions peak in industrial energy consumption. The results show that the peak time of the four scenarios is respectively 2026, 2030, 2035 and 2043, and the peak values are separately 147.87 million tons, 16.94 million tons, 190.89 million tons and 22.973 million tons. Due to conforming to the general disciplines of industrial development, the result in ELS is selected as the optimal scenario. The impact degrees of various factors on the peak value are listed as industrial CO2 emissions efficiency of energy consumption > industrialized rate > GDP > urbanization rate > industrial energy intensity > the share of renewable energy consumption. But not all factors affect the peak time. Only two factors including industrial clean-coal and low-carbon technology and industrialized rate do effect on the peak time. Clean coal technology, low carbon technology and industrial restructuring have become inevitable choices to peak ahead of time. However, developing clean coal and low-carbon technologies, adjusting the industrial structure, promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure and reducing the growth rate of industrialization can effectively reduce the peak value. Then, the pathway and mechanism to reducing industrial carbon emissions were proposed under different scenarios. The approach and the pathway and mechanism are expected to offer better decision support to targeted carbon emission peak in northeast of China.


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1297-1313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Haider ◽  
Masudul Hasan Adil

Purpose The purpose of this paper is investigate the dynamic linkages among industrial energy use, industrial value added, financial development (FD) and trade openness, in case of India. The study covers the annual frequency data on both aggregate and disaggregate variables for the period 1971–2016. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach is applied to examine the long-run relation among variables under consideration. Also, Johansen and Juselius (1990) and vector error-correction mechanism results confirm the result of cointegration. Furthermore, non-linear relationship in the model is also tested. Findings It has been found that there exists long-run relationship among variables. Long-run estimates show that increasing FD leads to more energy uses. Hence, FD should be directed in such a way that it incentivises firms to invest in energy-efficient technology. Furthermore, it is also found that study supports the evidence of conservative hypothesis, which supports that the energy conservation policy should be adopted in the industrial sector. Energy efficiency programme needs to be designed very carefully to achieve a higher level of energy efficiency. This leads to a sustainable growth and low carbon emission. Originality/value This paper examines the recent trend in Indian industrial energy consumption and does a comprehensive analysis using a robust econometric method. We have developed a lucid model to examine the deriving factors of industrial energy consumption.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 306-317
Author(s):  
Kristiāna Dolge ◽  
Reinis Āzis ◽  
Peter D. Lund ◽  
Dagnija Blumberga

Abstract The manufacturing industry in Europe is currently enfacing one of its greatest challenges due to the emission reductions needed to reach carbon neutrality by the middle of this century. The European Union’s Energy Efficiency Directive and Green Deal will force manufacturing industries to significantly reduce their present energy consumption, but at the same time sustain their competitiveness globally. Here we use the Latvian manufacturing industry as a case to analyse how different macro-level factors have affected its energy use and how the industrial energy efficiency has progressed during the last decade. We apply the Log-Mean Divisia index decomposition method to decompose the energy use in the manufacturing subsectors over the period of the past ten years from 2010 to 2019. The findings unravel the key driving factors of industrial energy consumption, which could serve as a valuable basis for effective energy efficiency policymaking in the future. The results show that energy consumption trends differed across industrial subsectors and the effect of industrial energy efficiency improvements was more pronounced in the period following the entry into force of Energy Efficiency Law in Latvia. Significant increases in energy consumption are observed in the two largest Latvian manufacturing subsectors, such as the non-metallic minerals production sector and the wood processing sector, where the current pace of energy efficiency improvements cannot compensate for the effect of increasing industrial activity, which increases overall industrial energy consumption. The results suggest that the Latvian manufacturing industry is at the crossroads of the sustainability dilemma between economic gains and energy saving targets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3810
Author(s):  
Alessandra Cantini ◽  
Leonardo Leoni ◽  
Filippo De Carlo ◽  
Marcello Salvio ◽  
Chiara Martini ◽  
...  

The cement industry is highly energy-intensive, consuming approximately 7% of global industrial energy consumption each year. Improving production technology is a good strategy to reduce the energy needs of a cement plant. The market offers a wide variety of alternative solutions; besides, the literature already provides reviews of opportunities to improve energy efficiency in a cement plant. However, the technology is constantly developing, so the available alternatives may change within a few years. To keep the knowledge updated, investigating the current attractiveness of each solution is pivotal to analyze real companies. This article aims at describing the recent application in the Italian cement industry and the future perspectives of technologies. A sample of plant was investigated through the analysis of mandatory energy audit considering the type of interventions they have recently implemented, or they intend to implement. The outcome is a descriptive analysis, useful for companies willing to improve their sustainability. Results prove that solutions to reduce the energy consumption of auxiliary systems such as compressors, engines, and pumps are currently the most attractive opportunities. Moreover, the results prove that consulting sector experts enables the collection of updated ideas for improving technologies, thus giving valuable inputs to the scientific research.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akvile Lawrence ◽  
Patrik Thollander ◽  
Mariana Andrei ◽  
Magnus Karlsson

Although several research studies have adopted specific energy consumption (SEC) as an indicator of the progress of improved energy efficiency, publications are scarce on critical assessments when using SEC. Given the increasing importance of monitoring improved industrial energy efficiency and the rising popularity of SEC as an energy key performance indicator (e-KPI), an in-depth analysis and problematization on the pros and cons of using SEC would appear to be needed. The aim of this article is to analyse SEC critically in relation to industrial energy efficiency. By using SEC in the pulp and paper industry as an example, the results of this exploratory study show that although SEC is often used as an e-KPI in industry, the comparison is not always straightforward. Challenges emanate from a lack of information about how SEC is calculated. It is likely that SEC is an optimal e-KPI within the same study, when all deployed SECs are calculated in the same way, and with the same underlying assumptions. However, before comparing SEC with other studies, it is recommended that the assumptions on which calculations are based should be scrutinized in order to ensure the validity of the comparisons. The paper remains an important contribution in addition to the available handbooks.


2014 ◽  
Vol 556-562 ◽  
pp. 912-915
Author(s):  
Long Long Chen ◽  
Shuai Hua Xu ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Ke Ma

Influenced by both coal prices and energy-saving emission reduction situation, the development of semi coke industry has encountered a bottleneck in our country. Therefore, the semi coke industry energy saving technology related research, improving industrial energy efficiency, that is semi coke industry to improve the utilization rate of resources, the sustainable development of the important way.


2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 01023
Author(s):  
Ren Liu ◽  
Xia Yujuan ◽  
Sinan Zhang ◽  
Zhonghang Wang

The determination of energy consumption and conservation targets during the 13th Five-Year Plan lies in the core of the 13th Five-Year energy conservation planning. In this paper, the top-down decomposition methods was been employed to calculate China energy consumption, and research on the prediction of the development of industrial energy efficiency. In the end, author gave the suggestions to show the double control for energy consumption intensity and total consumption is the best way to fulfil the target of industrial energy efficiency of 13th five year plan energy consumption plan.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Lunt ◽  
Peter Ball ◽  
Andrew Levers

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to capture organisational barriers that can inhibit energy reduction in manufacturing. Energy consumption is a significant contributor to the economic and environmental components of industrial sustainability, and there is a significant body of knowledge emerging on the technical steps necessary to reduce that consumption. Achieving technical success requires organisational alignment, without which barriers to energy efficiency can be experienced. Design/methodology/approach – The research uses a theory building–theory testing cycle to propose and then verify existence of barriers to industrial energy efficiency. Literature review is used to build potential organisational barriers that can arise. The existence of barriers is then verified in industrial energy reduction projects using interview, observation and document analysis. Findings are validated by company staff. Findings – From the literature barriers that can be related to energy reduction, projects are uncovered. The generic and energy reduction-specific barriers are confirmed and two new barriers are identified. A cognitive map linking the relationships between all the barriers is proposed. Research limitations/implications – The research is built on detailed examination of a number of projects in a single company and work is needed to verify the findings in companies of different size and different industrial sector. Practical implications – The list of barriers created can support industry in preparing for and undertaking energy efficiency projects. The cognitive map proposed will help industry and academia understand why removing current prominent barriers can lead to surfacing of new barriers. Originality/value – The novelty of this research is in both the creation of a list of organisational barriers for energy efficiency as well as identifying the relationships between them. The work brings generic change management barriers to enhance the specific energy reduction barriers together into a broader collation of barriers as well as uncovering new barriers. The work proposes a cognitive map of industrial energy efficiency barriers to demonstrate their interrelationships.


2015 ◽  
Vol 737 ◽  
pp. 925-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Huan Mei Yao ◽  
Meng Lin Qin

According to IPCC carbon emission calculation instruction, the amount of industrial carbon emission of downtown of Nanning from 2003-2012 is evaluated. With LMDI element decomposition method, the carbon emission of industrial energy consumption in Nanning downtown is decomposed into effect of five aspects such as energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, economic scale and population size. It turns out that: the energy structure change can promote the increase of carbon emission. The energy consumption structure should be optimized and the proportion of high-carbon energy consumption should be reduced; The energy intensity is the leading driving factor of carbon emission. The energy efficiency should be further improved to control the increase of carbon emission to some degree; The industrial structure restrains the increase of carbon emission in a great degree. Industrial restructuring should be strengthened and low-carbon industry should be developed; The scale of economy is the main driving factor of the increase of carbon emission. The extensive way of economic growth which depends on the large input of production factors should be changed; The population has a promoting function the increase of carbon emission, while the driving effect is weak, and the growth rate of the population should be strictly controlled.


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