Overreaction effect: evidence from an emerging market (Shanghai stock market)

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna Reddy ◽  
Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar ◽  
Nawazish Mirza ◽  
Fangwei Shi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reversal Effect ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Term Analysis

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite 50 index.Design/methodology/approachTo capture overreaction effect in the stock listed at SSE 50 Index, a time series analysis of average cumulative abnormal return within a unified framework is applied for the period of January 2009 to December 2015. From these loser and winner portfolios, contrarian strategy is applied to build arbitrage portfolio, which is the difference of mean reversions between loser and winner portfolios. The portfolio construction is based on a 12-month formation period and 6-month testing period for intermediate-term analysis and. for short-term analysis, 6 month formation and 3 month testing periods. The authors also applied regression analysis to test a return reversal effect for the sampled period.FindingsResults show that contrarian strategy yields positive excess returns for the arbitrage portfolio for most of the testing periods. The intermediate baseline case shows the arbitrage portfolio producing an average excess return of 14.1%, while even the short-term one produces 4%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. The study finds asymmetrical overreactions in the SSE especially for loser portfolios. The biggest winner and loser portfolios follow the mean reversal effect. Moreover, before-after test for the biggest winner and loser portfolios shows that the losers recovered and beat the market immediately.Practical implicationsThe study could benefit government, policy makers and regulators by studying how presence of more individual investors than institutional investors of China stock market leads to more irrational decisions giving rise to volatility. The regulators could build favourable policies for institutional investors to give them incentive to invest more than individual investors through which market volatility could be controlled.Originality/valueThis research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. The authors provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.Contribution to ImpactThis research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. We provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.

Return reversal effect in Shanghai A share market

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 698-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna Reddy ◽  
Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar ◽  
Marriam Rao
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reversal Effect ◽  
Chinese Stock Markets ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Return Reversal

Purpose The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the late-stage contrarian strategy of Malin and Bornholt (2013) for the period March 2011‒March 2016. Findings The results show that there is a long-term return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market for the period March 2011‒March 2016. When portfolios are in the formation period (P=24 months), the excess returns are significant in the holding period, Q=6, 9, 12, 24 months. Further, there is also a significant short-term momentum effect in the Shanghai A stock market. For the robustness check, a new reversal factor was introduced into the Fama‒French three-factor model. Results show that portfolios have a smaller size and have lower book-to-market ratios; the return reversal factor explains a portion of the abnormal returns and coefficient of the reversal effect is significant. Research limitations/implications The authors caution readers from generalizing the findings of this study, as the sample is small and the focus is only on A stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Originality/value The present research expands the current literature by providing a comprehensive information about the presence of the long-term and short-term return reversal effects in Shanghai A stock market. Furthermore, the Chinese stock markets have distinctive features in comparison to the developed stock markets in terms of government control, institutional structure, liquidity, cultural background, etc. Such differences affect the pattern in stock returns compared with those observed in developed stock markets. Contrary to previous studies, the present study also accounts for robustness checks. Finally, it also evaluates the possible reasons for the return reversal effect in the Shanghai market.

Deriving wisdom from virtual investing communities: an alternative strategy to stock recommendations

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahul Kumar ◽  
Shubhadeep Mukherjee ◽  
Bipul Kumar ◽  
Pradip Kumar Bala
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Economic Wealth ◽  
Investment Decision Making

Purpose Colossal information is available in cyberspace from a variety of sources such as blogs, reviews, posts and feedback. The mentioned sources have helped in improving various business processes from product development to stock market development. This paper aims to transform this wealth of information in the online medium to economic wealth. Earlier approaches to investment decision-making are dominated by the analyst's recommendations. However, their credibility has been questioned for herding behavior, conflict of interest and favoring underwriter's firms. This study assumes that members of the online crowd who have been reliable, profitable and knowledgeable in the recent past will continue to be so soon. Design/methodology/approach The authors identify credible members as experts using multi-criteria decision-making tools. In this work, an alternative actionable investment strategy is proposed and demonstrated through a mock-up. The experimental prototype is divided into two phases: expert selection and investment. Findings The created portfolio is comparable and even profitable than several major global stock indices. Practical implications This work aims to benefit individual investors, investment managers and market onlookers. Originality/value This paper takes into account factors: the accuracy and trustworthiness of the sources of stock market recommendations. Earlier work in the area has focused solely intelligence of the analyst for the stock recommendation. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the combined intelligence of the virtual investment communities has been considered to make stock market recommendations.

Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Faisal Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Artificial intelligence in financial services: a qualitative research to discover robo-advisory services

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ankita Bhatia ◽  
Arti Chandani ◽  
Rizwana Atiq ◽  
Mita Mehta ◽  
Rajiv Divekar
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advisory Services ◽  
Wealth Management ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this study is to gauge the awareness and perception of Indian individual investors about a new fintech innovation known as robo-advisors in the wealth management scenario. Robo-advisors are comprehensive automated online advisory platforms that help investors in managing wealth by recommending portfolio allocations, which are based on certain algorithms. Design/methodology/approach This is a phenomenological qualitative study that used five focussed group discussions to gather the stipulated information. Purposive sampling was used and the sample comprised investors who actively invest in the Indian stock market. A semi-structured questionnaire and homogeneous discussions were used for this study. Discussion time for all the groups was 203 min. One of the authors moderated the discussions and translated the audio recordings verbatim. Subsequently, content analysis was carried out by using the NVIVO 12 software (QSR International) to derive different themes. Findings Factors such as cost-effectiveness, trust, data security, behavioural biases and sentiments of the investors were observed as crucial points which significantly impacted the perception of the investors. Furthermore, several suggestions on different ways to enhance the awareness levels of investors were brought up by the participants during the discussions. It was observed that some investors perceive robo-advisors as only an alternative for fund/wealth managers/brokers for quantitative analysis. Also, they strongly believe that human intervention is necessary to gauge the emotions of the investors. Hence, at present, robo-advisors for the Indian stock market, act only as a supplementary service rather than a substitute for financial advisors. Research limitations/implications Due to the explorative nature of the study and limited participants, the findings of the study cannot be generalised to the overall population. Future research is imperative to study the dynamic nature of artificial intelligence (AI) theories and investigate whether they are able to capture the sentiments of individual investors and human sentiments impacting the market. Practical implications This study gives an insight into the awareness, perception and opinion of the investors about robo-advisory services. From a managerial perspective, the findings suggest that additional attention needs to be devoted to the adoption and inculcation of AI and machine learning theories while building algorithms or logic to come up with effective models. Many investors expressed discontent with the current design of risk profiles of the investors. This helps to provide feedback for developers and designers of robo-advisors to include advanced and detailed programming to be able to do risk profiling in a more comprehensive and precise manner. Social implications In the future, robo-advisors will change the wealth management scenario. It is well-established that data is the new oil for all businesses in the present times. Technologies such as robo-advisor, need to evolve further in terms of predicting unstructured data, improvising qualitative analysis techniques to include the ability to gauge emotions of investors and markets in real-time. Additionally, the behavioural biases of both the programmers and the investors need to be taken care of simultaneously while designing these automated decision support systems. Originality/value This study fulfils an identified gap in the literature regarding the investors’ perception of new fintech innovation, that is, robo-advisors. It also clarifies the confusion about the awareness level of robo-advisors amongst Indian individual investors by examining their attitudes and by suggesting innovations for future research. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the awareness, perception and attitudes of individual investors towards robo-advisors.

Investment environment, stock market perception and stock investments after stock market crash

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Tariqul Islam Khan ◽  
Siow-Hooi Tan ◽  
Lee-Lee Chong ◽  
Gerald Guan Gan Goh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Investment Environment ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Market Perception ◽  
Stock Investments

PurposeThis study examines how the importance of external investment environment factors affect stock market perception, and how stock market perception affects stock investments after stock market crash witnessed by individual investors in one of the emerging stock markets.Design/methodology/approachA cross-sectional survey was administrated among 223 individual investors who experienced stock market crash in 2010–2011 in Bangladesh, and the proposed model was tested by the partial least squares-structural equation modeling PLS-SEM model.FindingsFindings show that the importance of Bangladesh's stock market performance, government policy, economic issues and neighboring country's stock market performance has effects on investors' stock market perception. This perception, in turn, decreases monthly stock trading and short-term investment horizon. The findings further show the mediating effect of stock market perception.Practical implicationsInvestors need to carefully consider the external investment environment when they form their stock market perception, as this perception drives stock investments. Analogously, regulators should ensure releasing timely and updated statistics on external investment factors.Originality/valueAddressing those investors who encountered stock market crash, a set of external investment environment issues, stock market perception and stock investments are new in the literature.

Does salience matter in investment decision?

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1894-1912
Author(s):  
Samra Chaudary
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multigroup Analysis ◽  
Money Managers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The paper takes a behavioral approach by making use of the prospect theory to unveil the impact of salience on short-term and long-term investment decisions. This paper aims to investigate the group differences for two types of investors’ groups, i.e. individual investors and professional investors. Design/methodology/approach The study uses partial least square-based structural equation modeling technique, measurement invariance test and multigroup analysis test on a unique data set of 277 active equity traders which included professional money managers and individual investors. Findings Results showed that salience has a significant positive impact on both short-term and long-term investment decisions. The impact was almost 1.5 times higher for long-term investment decision as compared to short-term decision. Furthermore, multigroup analysis revealed that the two groups (individual investors and professional investors) were statistically significantly different from each other. Research limitations/implications The study has implications for financial regulators, money managers and individual investors as it was found that individual investors suffer more with salience heuristic and may end up with sub-optimal portfolios due to inefficient diversification. Thus, investors should be cautious in fully relying on salience and avoid such bias to improve investment returns. Practical implications The study concludes with a discussion of policy and regulatory implications on how to minimize salience bias to achieve optimum and diversified portfolios. Originality/value The study has significantly contributed to the growing body of applied behavioral research in the discipline of finance.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Does the financial crisis influence the month and the trading month effects?

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou ◽  
Aristeidis Samitas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Financial Growth ◽  
Calendar Anomalies

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the month and the trading month effects under changing financial trends. The Greek stock market was chosen to implement the authors' assumptions because during the period 2002-2012, there were clear and long-term periods of financial growth and recession. Thus, the authors examine whether the financial trends influence not only the Greek stock market’s returns, but also its anomalies. Design/methodology/approach – Daily financial data from the Athens Exchange General Index for the period 2002-2012 are used. The sample is separated into two sub-periods: the financial growth sub-period (2002-2007), and the financial recession sub-period (2008-2012). Several linear and non-linear models were applied to find which is the most appropriate, and the results suggested that the T-GARCH model better fits the sample. Findings – The empirical results show that changing economic and financial conditions influence the calendar effects. The trading month effect, especially, completely changes in each fortnight following the financial trend. Regarding the January effect, which is the most popular month effect, the results confirm its existence during the growth period, but during the recession period, we find that it fades. Therefore, by examining the aforementioned calendar effects in different periods, different conclusions may be reached, perhaps because the financial trends’ influence is ignored. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results confirm the authors' assumption that a possible explanation for the controversial empirical findings regarding the calendar anomalies may be the different financial trends. However, these are some primary results that are confirmed only for the Greek case. Further empirical research for deeper stock markets and/or a group of countries may be useful to reach conclusions regarding the financial trends’ influence on the calendar anomalies patterns. Practical implications – The findings are helpful to anyone who invests and deals with the Greek stock market. Moreover, they may pave the way for an alternative calendar anomalies research approach, proving useful for investors who take these anomalies into account when they plan their investment strategy. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the literature by presenting an alternative methodological approach regarding the calendar anomalies study and a new explanation for the calendar effects existence/fade through time by examining the calendar anomalies patterns under a changing economic environment and financial trends.

scholarly journals Misvaluation and behavioral bias in the Brazilian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (79) ◽  
pp. 107-122
Author(s):  
José Bonifácio de Araújo Júnior ◽  
Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros ◽  
Olavo Venturim Caldas ◽  
César Augusto Tibúrcio Silva
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Publicly Traded Companies ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Three Samples ◽  
Investment Portfolios

ABSTRACT The study sought to apply the model developed by Gokhale et al. (2015) to identify the existence of overreaction and behavioral biases in the Brazilian stock market and analyze its performance as an investment strategy on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA) in the short term and long term, as well as test its robustness with time window simulations. The impacts of behavioral finance on capital markets can affect economic decisions, perpetuate or increase asset pricing anomalies, and in more extreme and persistent situations contribute to the formation of bubbles that can compromise the entire financial system of a country. The study pioneers an innovative methodology in the Brazilian stock market for identifying behavioral biases and obtaining abnormal returns and higher returns than the Ibovespa. The research uses the model developed by Gokhale, Tremblay, and Tremblay (2015) in three samples with quotations data for Brazilian publicly-traded companies that compose the Ibovespa and IBrA in the period from 2005 to 2016. With the R statistical software, the Fundamental Valuation Index (FVI) was calculated for each sample share and each year. From the FVI index, the undervalued shares were identified, indicating that the sales price does not reflect their economic fundamentals, and portfolio simulations were carried out for investment over three months or the next year. The results indicate the possible existence of overreaction and behavioral biases in the Brazilian stock market, which lead to the possibility of higher abnormal returns than those of the Ibovespa. Similar to the US market, at the end of the 2006-2016 period simulated portfolios yielded more than 274%, while the Ibovespa yielded approximately 80%. The robustness tests attest to the effectiveness of the model. The various investment portfolios, simulated over different time horizons, yielded more than the Ibovespa on average. The study also confirmed the assumptions of Gokhale, Tremblay, and Tremblay (2015) regarding the model's inadequacy for short-term strategies.

Argentine economic shifts will not bring rapid relief

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rapid Improvement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Taxes ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Rapid Relief

Significance In his first month in office, President Mauricio Macri made substantial progress in removing controls implemented by the former administration. The new government liberalised the foreign exchange market, increasingly constrained over the last four years, and international trade, with the lifting of most export taxes and the removal of controversial non-automatic import licences. Impacts Policy changes will not bring rapid improvement, with little recovery this year or next. This will raise social conflict in the short term, putting governability at risk. Medium-term price stabilisation, in the framework of a managed float and an inflation target regime, may drive a rebound.

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