Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Faisal Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Elucidating investors rationality and behavioural biases in Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada ◽  
Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
Attribution Bias ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the relationship between investors’ rationality and behavioural biases like self-attribution, overconfidence. Design/methodology/approach The study applies structural equation modelling to understand whether individual investors, besides being rational, are subjected to self-attribution bias and overconfidence bias. Findings The study shows the empirical evidence in the support of behavioural biases like self-attribution and overconfidence existing besides investors’ rationality. Moreover, there is a statistically significant positive covariance found between self-attribution and overconfidence, implying that an increase/decrease in self-attribution results in the increase/decrease in overconfidence and vice versa. It is also observed that the personal characteristics of an investor such as gender, age, occupation, annual income and their trading experience have an impact on behavioural biases. Research limitations/implications The study focused on rational decision making, self-attribution and overconfidence biases using primary data. Further studies can be encouraged to test the existence of behavioural biases based on both market level and individual account data simultaneously. Practical implications Insights from the study suggest that the investors should perform a post-analysis of each investment, so that they become aware of past behavioural mistakes and stop continuing the same. This might help investors to minimise the negative impact of self-attribution and overconfidence on their expected utility. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the relationship among investors’ rationality, self-attribution and overconfidence in the Indian context using a comprehensive survey.

Islamic financial markets response to uncertainty: an application of quantile-on-quantile approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saeed Meo ◽  
Kiran Jameel ◽  
Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury ◽  
Sajid Ali
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four different Islamic indices (DJ Islamic index, DJ Islamic Asia–Pacific index, DJ Islamic-Europe index and DJ Islamic-US) are taken.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs quantile-on-quantile regression approach to see the overall dependence structure of variables based on quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. This technique considers how quantiles of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty asymmetrically affect the quantiles of Islamic stocks by giving an appropriate framework to apprehend the overall dependence structure.FindingsThe findings of the study confirm a strong negative impact of world uncertainty and world pandemic uncertainty on regional Islamic stock indices but the strength of the relationship varies according to economic conditions and across the regions. However, the world pandemic effect remains the same and does not change. Conversely, pandemic uncertainty has a larger effect on Islamic indices as compared to world uncertainty.Practical implicationsOur findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers to take proper steps before any uncertainty arise. A coalition of the central bank, government officials and investment bank regulators would be needed to tackle this challenge of uncertainty.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, none of the current works has considered the asymmetric impact of world and pandemic uncertainties on Islamic stock markets at both the bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data.

Investor personality and investment performance: from the perspective of psychological traits

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-352
Author(s):  
Fatima Akhtar ◽  
Niladri Das
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Psychological Traits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyse the mediation effect of psychological biases, namely, financial risk tolerance (FRT) and financial overconfidence on the relationship between personality traits of individual investors and their investment performance (perceived) in the context of a developing financial market such as Indian Capital Markets. Design/methodology/approach The study uses both quantitative and cross-sectional approach to collect response from 983 individual investors through a questionnaire. The questionnaire had segments that were designed to assess their personality traits, investment performance and psychological traits. The personality traits were assessed through Big-Five personality inventory (TIPI), the psychological traits, i.e. FRT was measured through FRT scale, whereas financial overconfidence was measured through three basic concepts, namely, over-precision, over-placement and overestimation. Investment performance was assessed through perceived investment performance measures. The collected data was then analysed through AMOS and SPSS to validate the hypothesised relationship. Findings Findings of the study depict that personality traits of individual investors are related with their FRT, financial overconfidence and perceived investment performance. In addition, FRT and financial overconfidence are negatively related to perceived investment performance. Furthermore, mediation analysis showed that the two psychological traits were found to fully mediate the relationship between personality traits and investment performance. Research limitations/implications There are still certain limitations of the present study. First, the questionnaire pre-testing and sampling technique allowed for only for those investors who had an experience of investment in financial markets; however, the quantification of actual investment performance for each investor was impossible, and thus the actual investment performance was not determined. Second, this study focusses on the mediating role of financial overconfidence and financial risk-taking, as such it is known that levels of financial overconfidence and risk-taking depend on many other extraneous factors such as socio-economic status and financial knowledge. Practical implications The findings of the present study is useful for financial companies, policymakers as well as issuers of financial securities, who can keep a watch on these behaviour-related traits before issuing a security in the financial market and for the financial service providers; this study would be beneficial to design a “behavioural portfolio” according to the personality and psychological traits of their clients. Social implications Through this study, the investors can recognise their personality traits and psychological biases and take sound and good investment decisions and can also maximise their level of overconfidence. This increased level of overconfidence will propel them further to actively and frequently participate in financial markets and make financial gains. Originality/value The essence of this paper lies in the identification of personality traits and psychological traits of individual investors, and their relationship with investment performance. Studies such as this are less prevalent in the context of a developing country such as India. Moreover, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is first of its kind to study the meditating effect of psychological biases in the relationship between personality traits and investment performance.

Predictors of investment intention in Indian stock markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Akhtar ◽  
Niladri Das
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Financial Knowledge ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand investment intention of prospective individual investors in a developing country (i.e. India) by using the “Theory of Planned Behaviour” (TPB) (where perceived behavioural control has been replaced with financial self-efficacy, FSE) and two additional constructs, i.e. financial knowledge and personality traits (i.e. risk-taking propensity and preference for innovation) have been introduced.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses quantitative and cross-sectional approach wherein questionnaire based survey was done to collect responses from prospective individual investors (920 usable responses). AMOS and SPSS have been used to establish the hypothesised relationship between the constructs.FindingsThe results of the study suggested that attitude was responsible for partial mediation between the relationship of financial knowledge and investment intention, whereas financial self-efficacy was exerting a dual role on the relationship between personality traits and investment intention. Subjective norms, on the other hand, exerted a weak positive effect on investment intention.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited to measure the investment intention in financial markets in case of prospective individual investors; it does not incorporate the actual investment behaviour, the study also fails to include demographic factors which play a vital role in investment decision making. Furthermore, the study has only considered objective dimension of financial knowledge.Practical implicationsThe findings will be useful for financial service providers who need to enhance the FSE and financial knowledge and design a “behavioural portfolio” according the personality traits of their clients.Social implicationsThe up-liftment of financial confidence among individuals in order to motivate them to participate in financial markets and enjoy “short-cuts” towards financial success.Originality/valueThis study is one of the initial attempts in the context of the Indian Stock Market to introduce FSE as a dual (both mediating and moderating) construct between personality traits and investment intention using TPB, moreover, this study also provides the necessary impetus to analyse the relationship between financial knowledge and investment intention with attitude as the mediating variable.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Investment Strategy: An Empirical Assessment of Behavioural Factors in the Omani Context

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 256-274
Author(s):  
Gopalakrishnan Chinnasamy ◽  
Araby Madbouly Ahmed Hussein ◽  
Stephen Aro-Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Rational Approach ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Design Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Behavioural Factors

This paper examines the behavioural factors influencing investment decisions and strategy in the Sultanate of Oman. Investors’ decision-making process is thought to be influenced by a wide range of factors directly or indirectly (Kusev et al. 2017). The rational approach considers only the mathematical results thereby failing to recognize the investor’s related psychological and sociological factors, categorized in the paper as heuristic factors, prospect factors and herding factors. This study attempts to identify the behavioural factors that influence individual investors’ decision in the Muscat Securities Market (MSM). Specifically, the study was designed to identify the factors which are mostly influencing the investment decisions of investors. Employing descriptive research design; data were collected from individual investors who had traded in the MSM during the fourth quarter of 2018. The primary collected through structured questionnaire and the secondary data is collected from various sources from stock brokers, Journals and other sources respectively. The simple random sampling technique was applied and the collected data covering 16 variables of behavioural factors were analyzed using the factor analysis, principal component analysis with varimax rotation, and Analysis of Variance tools. The anchoring, mental accounting, movement of prices, volume of trade and market information factors emerged as the five principal determinants of investment strategy are the major findings of the study. The results might make investors and advisors to understand the optimal ways to improve on strategy for structuring optimum portfolio selection and how far this can be optimised further in terms of managing their investment behaviour.

Effects of suppliers’ trust and commitment on customer involvement

2015 ◽  
Vol 115 (6) ◽  
pp. 1041-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Li ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
Taiwen Feng
Keyword(s):  
Social Exchange ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Social Exchange Theory ◽  
Exchange Theory ◽  
Governance Mechanism ◽  
Relational Governance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Involvement ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among suppliers’ trust and commitment, transaction-specific investment, switching cost, and customer involvement within the context of relational governance mechanism and the social exchange theory. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use survey data from 214 Chinese manufacturing firms and employ the structural equation model to verify the conceptual model. Findings – Relational governance benefits customer involvement. Transaction-specific investment mediates the relationship between trust and commitment of suppliers. Switching costs negatively moderate the relationship between suppliers’ trust and customer involvement, but positively moderate the relationship between suppliers’ commitment and customer involvement. Research limitations/implications – The authors focus on two key elements of relationship, namely, trust and commitment of suppliers, but neglect other relational factors, such as relational norms and interdependence. Originality/value – These findings broaden the understanding and present new directions for the implementation of customer involvement from the perspective of relational governance and social exchange theory.

The relationship between knowledge-based economy and fraudulent financial reporting

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Koolivand ◽  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Meysam Arabzadeh ◽  
Hassan Ghodrati
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fraudulent Financial Reporting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Robust Testing ◽  
Knowledge Based Economy ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to assess the relationship between a knowledge-based economy and fraudulent financial reporting. Design/methodology/approach The study is descriptive-correlation based on published information from enlisted firms on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2013–2019 with a sample of 178 firms (1,246 observations). The method used for hypothesis testing is linear regression using the panel data. Findings The results show that a knowledge-based economy is associated negatively and significantly with financial reporting. Moreover, robust testing has also examined the hypotheses (including fixed effects, OLS and t + 1) that confirmed the study’s preliminary results. Originality/value As the study was carried out in the emergent financial markets, like Iran, to figure out the relationship between knowledge-based economy and financial reporting, it can provide helpful information for the practitioners in this field.

Earnings management when firms face mandatory contributions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Qin ◽  
Jun Cai ◽  
Steven Wei
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Management Behavior ◽  
Indicator Variable ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Reported Earnings

PurposeIn this paper, we aim to answer two questions. First, whether firms manipulate reported earnings via pension assumptions when facing mandatory contributions. Second, whether firms alter their earnings management behavior when the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) mandates disclosure of pension asset composition and a description of investment strategy under SFAS 132R.Design/methodology/approachOur basic approach is to run linear regressions of firm-year assumed returns on the log of pension sensitivity measures, controlling for current and lagged actual returns from pension assets, fiscal year dummies and industry dummies. The larger the pension sensitivity ratios, the stronger the effects from inflated ERRs on reported earnings. We confirm the early results that the regression slopes are positive and highly significant. We construct an indicator variable DMC to capture the mandatory contributions firms face and another indicator variable D132R to capture the effect of SFAS 132R. DMC takes the value of one for fiscal years during which an acquisition takes place and zero otherwise. D132R takes the value of one for fiscal years after December 15, 2003 and zero otherwise.FindingsOur sample covers the period from June 1992 to December 2017. Our key results are as follows. The estimated coefficient (t-statistic) on DMC is 0.308 (6.87). Firms facing mandatory contributions tend to set ERRs at an average 0.308% higher. The estimated coefficient (t-statistic) on D132R is −2.190 (−13.70). The new disclosure requirement under SFAS 132R constrains all firms to set ERRs at an average 2.190% lower. The estimate (t-statistic) on the interactive term DMA×D132R is −0.237 (−3.29). When mandatory contributions happen during the post-SFAS 132R period, firms tend to set ERRs at 0.237% lower than they would do otherwise in the pre-SFAS 132R period.Originality/valueWhen firms face mandatory contributions, typically firm experience negative stock market returns. We examine whether managers manage earnings to mitigate such negative impact. We find that firms inflate assumed returns on pension assets to boost their reported earnings when facing mandatory contributions. We also find that managers alter earnings management behavior, in the case of mandatory contributions, following the introduction of new pension disclosure standards under SFAS 132R that become effective on December 15, 2003. Under the new SFAS 132R requirement, firms need to disclose asset allocation and describe investment strategies. This imposes restrictions on managers' discretion in making ERR assumptions, since now the composition of pension assets is a key determinant of the assumed expected rate of return on pension assets. Firms need to justify their ERRs with their asset allocations.

Financial and social efficiency analysis of Islamic microfinance institutions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwa Fersi ◽  
Mouna Bougelbène
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Social Efficiency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamic Microfinance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of credit risk-taking on financial and social efficiency and examine the relationship between credit risk, capital structure and efficiency in the context of Islamic microfinance institutions (MFIs) compared to their conventional counterparts.Design/methodology/approachThe stochastic frontier approach was used to estimate the financial and social efficiency scores, in a first step. In a second step, the impact of risk-taking on efficiency was evaluated. The authors also took into account the moderating role of capital structure in this effect using the fixed and random effects generalized least squares (GLS) with a first-order autoregressive disturbance. The used dataset covers 326 conventional MFIs and 57 Islamic MFIs in six different regions of the world over the period of 2005–2015.FindingsThe overall average efficiency scores are less than 50%, where CMFIs could have produced their outputs using 48% of their actual inputs. IMFIs record the lowest financial (cost) efficiency that is equal to 28% on average. The estimation results also reveal a negative impact of nonperforming loan on financial and social efficiency. Finally, the moderating effect of leverage funding on the relationship between credit risk-taking and financial efficiency was confirmed in CMFIs. However, leverage seems to moderate the effect of risk-taking behavior on social efficiency for IMFIs.Originality/valueThis paper makes an initial attempt to evaluate the effect of risk-taking decision and its implication on efficiency and MFIs' sustainability. Besides, it takes into consideration the role played by the mode of governance through the ownership structure. In addition, this research study sheds light on the importance of the financial support for the development and sustainability of these institutions, which in return, contributes to a sustainable economic development.

Does salience matter in investment decision?

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1894-1912
Author(s):  
Samra Chaudary
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multigroup Analysis ◽  
Money Managers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The paper takes a behavioral approach by making use of the prospect theory to unveil the impact of salience on short-term and long-term investment decisions. This paper aims to investigate the group differences for two types of investors’ groups, i.e. individual investors and professional investors. Design/methodology/approach The study uses partial least square-based structural equation modeling technique, measurement invariance test and multigroup analysis test on a unique data set of 277 active equity traders which included professional money managers and individual investors. Findings Results showed that salience has a significant positive impact on both short-term and long-term investment decisions. The impact was almost 1.5 times higher for long-term investment decision as compared to short-term decision. Furthermore, multigroup analysis revealed that the two groups (individual investors and professional investors) were statistically significantly different from each other. Research limitations/implications The study has implications for financial regulators, money managers and individual investors as it was found that individual investors suffer more with salience heuristic and may end up with sub-optimal portfolios due to inefficient diversification. Thus, investors should be cautious in fully relying on salience and avoid such bias to improve investment returns. Practical implications The study concludes with a discussion of policy and regulatory implications on how to minimize salience bias to achieve optimum and diversified portfolios. Originality/value The study has significantly contributed to the growing body of applied behavioral research in the discipline of finance.

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