Investor protection and market reaction to unusual market activity replies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Teck Lye ◽  
Tuan-Hock Ng ◽  
Kwee-Pheng Lim ◽  
Chin-Yee Gan
Keyword(s):  
Market Reaction ◽  
Investor Protection ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Activity ◽  
Information Hypothesis ◽  
New Information

PurposeThis study uses the unique setting of unusual market activity (UMA) replies to examine the market reaction and the effects of disclosure and investor protection amid information uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachA total of 1527 hand-collected UMA replies from the interlinked stock exchanges of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore for the period of 2015–2017 were analysed using event study and Heckman two-step methods with market and matched control firm benchmarks.FindingsThe overall results support the uncertain information hypothesis. The UMA replies with new information were also found to reduce information uncertainty, but not information asymmetry, and they are complementary to investor protection in enhancing abnormal returns. The overall finding suggests that the UMA public query system can be an effective market intervention mechanism in improving information certainty and efficiency.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides insight on the effects of news replies and investor protection on abnormal returns, and support for the uncertain information hypothesis. The finding is useful to policymakers and stock exchanges as they seek to understand how to alleviate investors' anxiety and to create an informationally efficient market. Nevertheless, this study is limited by the extensiveness of the hand-collected UMA replies and also the potential issue of simultaneity-induced endogeneity.Originality/valueThis study uses UMA replies and cross-country data taking into account the effects of market surroundings such as information uncertainty and the level of investor protection on market reaction.

The market’s reaction to unexpected, catastrophic events

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Humphrey ◽  
David A. Carter ◽  
Betty Simkins
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Offshore Drilling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil And Gas Firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the stock market reaction to the Gulf oil spill and determine if the markets exhibited rational pricing. On April 20, 2010, the US Coast Guard received a report of an explosion and fire aboard Transocean’s Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig. The resulting spill exceeded the Exxon Valdez oil spill as the worst in US history. With the total cost of the disaster reaching almost $54 billion for British Petroleum, clearly the spill had far-reaching effects on its market value. However, the more interesting question is what valuation effects might exist for other oil and gas firms, due to an increase in perceived risk for all offshore drilling and/or the likelihood of an increase in the regulation of the industry. Design/methodology/approach – Because the new information was released piecemeal over time and has the potential to affect a number of firms simultaneously, Gibbon’s (1980) multivariate regression model methodology (MVRM) was used to examine share price reactions of firms in the oil and gas industry in the aftermath of the oil spill. This methodology allows one to test whether significant abnormal returns occur on days where new information is released. Further, one is able to test whether the market reaction was the same for each firm or whether the market differentiated between firms. Findings – Evidence of abnormal returns was found for the majority of the information dates in our investigation. Further, the results reject the notion that the market reaction was the same for all oil and gas firms, leading to the conclusion that the market did differentiate between firms. Originality/value – This research is important because the results support rational pricing of the US stock markets following this unexpected and catastrophic event. The market was examined over the period following the oil spill on multiple dates when important new information is provided. This study contributes to financial and economic research on market efficiency and reactions to major risk events.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

Ramadan’s impact on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 727-742
Author(s):  
Harit Satt ◽  
Sarah Nechbaoui ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Selma Izadi
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
World Religions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015). Design/methodology/approach The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism. Findings This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism. Originality/value Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

Gender matters: market perception of future performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1247-1262
Author(s):  
Kylie A. Braegelmann ◽  
Nacasius U. Ujah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Gender Bias ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Capital Allocation ◽  
Event Window ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Window Approach ◽  
Over Time

PurposeThis paper aims to revisit the extant evidence on gender bias in the market. Specifically, it revisits reaction to CEO announcements. Also, it explores whether the development of the bias over time and by firm size aligns with existing theory.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines cumulative abnormal returns around CEO announcements from 1992 through 2016 using a modified event study methodology. This evidence shown examines market reactions over time and by firm size.FindingsFinancial markets react more favorably to male CEO announcements, with a cumulative abnormal return of 49 basis points above the reaction to their female counterparts. Moreover, the paper finds that market reaction varies over time, which may be because of the increasing proportion of female CEOs, and by firm size, which may be due to the differences in new information available to investors.Research limitations/implicationsLimitations include sample size due to the paucity of female CEO announcements. This paper does not examine the effect of industry, detailed CEO characteristics or announcement content on market reaction. In addition, using an extended event window may increase the likelihood of capturing confounding events, such as mergers or earnings announcements, which limits the interpretability of the results.Practical implicationsGender bias in financial markets creates another institutional barrier for the advancement of female professionals, as well as implies inefficient capital allocation in markets.Originality/valueThe literature in this field is still inconclusive. Furthermore, bias development over time and the effect of information on bias remain unexplored. This study aims to fill that gap; furthermore, it introduces an extended event-window approach.

scholarly journals Predictability of stock market indexes following large drawdowns and drawups

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Vinicius Ratton Brandi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Information Hypothesis ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Lower Magnitude

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most popular subjects in the empirical finance literature. Previous studies of the stock markets, which are mostly based on fixed-time price variations, have inconclusive findings: evidence of short-term predictability varies according to different samples and methodologies. We propose a novel approach and use drawdowns and drawups as triggers, to investigate the existence of short-term abnormal returns in the stock markets. As these measures are not computed within a fixed time horizon, they are flexible enough to capture subordinate, time-dependent processes that could drive market under- or overreaction. Most estimates in our results support the efficient market hypothesis. The underreaction hypothesis receives stronger support than does overreaction, with higher prevalence of return continuations than reversals. Evidence for the uncertain information hypothesis is present in some markets, mainly after lower-magnitude events.

Price and volume effects around Islamic index revisions: the case of DJIM-GCC

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiraz Labidi ◽  
Dorra Laribi ◽  
Loredana Ureche-Rangau
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Volume Response ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Compliance Certification ◽  
Volume Effects

PurposeThis study explores the price and trading volume effects around the quarterly Dow Jones Islamic Market-GCC index (DJIM-GCC) revisions and investigates whether these reactions are driven by firms' fundamentals or by investors' perception of ethical screening.Design/methodology/approachThe authors adopt an event study methodology to analyze the price and volume effects of Islamic indices redefinitions.FindingsThe results exhibit a positive (negative) price reaction for added (deleted) stocks. The authors also document an asymmetric volume response for index additions and deletions. The multivariate analysis of the cumulative abnormal returns reveals that the documented market reaction around Islamic index revisions is mainly related to the compliance attribution (withdrawal).Originality/valueThe approach allows to separate the market reaction arising from changes in firms' fundamentals from that induced by investors' perception of the attribution or withdrawal of a compliance certification. Moreover, the focus on the GCC region, where countries share the same cultural traits and perceive Islamic law identically excludes any social effect that would influence the market reaction due to cultural differences between countries.

scholarly journals TESTE EMPÍRICO DA EFICIÊNCIA DO MERCADO BRASILEIRO NA OCORRÊNCIA DE EVENTOS FAVORÁVEIS E DESFAVORÁVEIS

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Glauber de Castro Barbosa ◽  
Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Information Hypothesis

The study has the purpose of analyzing the behavior of the Brazilian stock market in order to verify the existence of market efficiency immediately after the occurrence of favorable and unfavorable events (shocks). To achieve this purpose, an event study is performed in which the return on the Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa) is regressed against the return on the Dow Jones stock market index, which represents the New York Stock Exchange, adopted as a proxy for the world stock market index. Regression residuals appearing as outliers above +2.5% or below –2.5% were adopted to determine positive and negative events, respectively. Cumulative Abnormal Returns were computed and tested for a period of 10 days after the events. The empirical results led to the conclusion that market efficiency is not observed both after positive and negative shocks, but an overreaction behavior is observed instead. Key words: economic shocks. Market efficiency. Overreaction. Uncertain information hypothesis. Underreaction. Event study.

Impact of ADR Forms 20-F reconciliation on trading volume

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-270
Author(s):  
David L. Senteney ◽  
Grace H. Gao ◽  
Mohammad S. Bazaz
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accounting Principles ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Gaap

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the impact of the filing of Form 20-F to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on short-term trading volume and return by those foreign firms which list their securities in the US Stock Exchanges. Design/methodology/approach – The authors collected 402 American depository receipt (ADR) firms from 38 different countries that listed their securities in the US Stock Exchanges over a 10-year period of 2000-2009. A regression model was used to examine such impact, including the post year 2007 SEC elimination of reconciliation. Findings – This paper found significant abnormal trading volumes and abnormal returns one day, two days and three days following the 20-F report for the sample firms whose financial statements were prepared under both home-country accounting principles and US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Firms originally using international financial reporting standards (IFRS) do not present abnormal return and abnormal trading volume. This indicates that US investors view IFRS to be as high-quality as US GAAP. Research limitations/implications – The findings might be limited to this period and might not draw statistical inference for the future period. This evidence offers support for the SEC’s elimination of the reconciliation requirement to US GAAP. Practical implications – This study was carried out with the aim to investigate whether the release of Form 20-F by ADR firms offers any additional information useful to investors incorporating both abnormal return and trading volume, which is thought to be more sensitive. Originality/value – This paper investigates the short-term return and volume reactions caused by the earnings and equity reconciliation from home-country accounting standards or IFRS to US GAAP for foreign cross-listed firms in the USA.

scholarly journals Probability of mergers and acquisitions deal failure

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sailesh Tanna ◽  
Ibrahim Yousef ◽  
Matthias Nnadi
Keyword(s):  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Shareholder Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Method Of Payment ◽  
Deal Completion

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the probability of deal success/failure in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) transactions is influenced by a range of deal, firm and country-specific characteristics which tend to affect acquirers’ shareholder returns. The specific hypotheses under investigation relate to the method of payment (cash versus stock), target status (listed versus non-listed), diversification (domestic versus cross-border and industry-wide) and acquirers’ prior bidding experience. Additionally, the authors also investigate whether announced deals reflect an expectation about likelihood of deal completion. Design/methodology/approach The authors analyse the probability of deal success/failure in M&As by combining event study and probit regression-based methods. The authors use the standard event study methodology to calculate acquirers’ abnormal returns for up to 10 days before and after the announcement date. In the probit model, the dependent variable is the probability of deal i being failure depending on four sets of explanatory variables: method of payment, target status, diversification and acquirer bidding experience, along with a set of control variables. Findings The findings from event study confirm that market reaction is indifferent to whether announced deals are likely to be successfully completed or not, consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis. However, the results from cross-sectional, cross-country regressions confirm that the aforementioned deal characteristics, as well as certain firm and country level attributes do influence the likelihood of whether an announced deal is subsequently completed or terminated. Originality/value In examining whether the specific characteristics affecting the likelihood that M&A transactions, once announced, will ultimately succeed or fail, it seems natural to ask whether the market reaction at the time of deal announcement reflects an expectation regarding deal completion. This could be associated with specific deal or firm-level characteristics influencing shareholder returns or risk, and represents a unique contribution of this study, over and above the use of a global sample of M&A data. The empirical analysis investigates these issues by using an extensive, global sample of 46,758 M&A transactions from 180 countries and 80 industries, which took place between the years 1977 and 2012.

scholarly journals The efficiency of the Italian stock exchange: market reaction following changes in recommendations

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 434-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Maria Cervellati ◽  
Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina ◽  
Pierpaolo Pattitoni
Keyword(s):  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Event Studies ◽  
Public Access ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Public ◽  
New Information ◽  
Peculiar Case

The main objective of this paper is to examine the market reaction to the recommendation changes issued by financial analysts. We study the peculiar case of Italy where analysts have to send their reports to the Stock Exchange Commission and the Stock Exchange the same day they give it to their clients. Reports are available on the Stock Exchange website. Our dataset includes about 5,200 reports issued on the 117 IPO firms that went public on the Italian Stock market between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2003. We calculate abnormal returns and abnormal volumes associated with the dissemination of the reports and perform two short-term event studies: the first associated with the “report date”, the second one with regard to the “public access date”, i.e. when the report is freely and publicly available on the Stock Exchange website. The event study related to the public access date show very different results. We do not find statistically significant average abnormal returns around this date, indicating that the market efficiently does not react to the mere publication of the report on the Stock Exchange website, since prices already included the effect of the recommendation change at the report date, i.e. when the new information was given to analyst’s private clients. It remains to be investigated if the abnormal returns before the report date are due to the effect of news different from the recommendation change or if they show a violation of the Italian regulation.

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