Scenario analysis for commercial Internet content delivery

Info ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Zhang ◽  
Timo Smura ◽  
Björn Grönvall ◽  
Heikki Hämmäinen
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Content Delivery ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Internet Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Content Provision ◽  
Delivery Networks ◽  
Technical Solutions

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct alternative future scenarios for Internet content delivery. The relative positions and roles of different actors and content delivery technologies in each scenario are then discussed. As traffic volume rapidly grows, the current Internet architecture faces scalability issues. To meet the demand, technical solutions utilizing caching and name-based routing are developed. Design/methodology/approach – This work followed a scenario planning process, and two workshops were organized for identifying the key trends and uncertainties. Industry architecture notation was used to systematically illustrate and compare the constructed scenarios. Findings – Of the 94 forces identified, the revenue model and Internet service provider's (ISP’s) role in content provision were singled out as the two most important uncertainties, upon which four scenarios were constructed. In-network caching technologies are strong candidates in ISP-dominated scenarios. Content delivery networks are more likely outcomes in scenarios, where content providers’ role is significant. Research limitations/implications – The paper focuses on qualitative analysis of scenarios. Utilizing, for instance, system dynamics to model interdependencies between the trends and uncertainties could provide a path toward quantitative analysis. Originality/value – The paper increases understanding of relative positions and roles of different actors and technologies in possible future scenarios. The findings are important, especially for ISPs, content providers and technology vendors. The scenarios can be used to identify desirable futures and strategies to achieve them and to make informed choices in technology design to meet the demands of key actors.

scholarly journals Family medicine in South Africa: exploring future scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Robert Mash ◽  
Klaus Von Pressentin
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Family Medicine ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Family Physicians ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Professional Body ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
Main Message

This paper reports on a workshop held at the 19th National Family Practitioners Conference in August 2016. The aim of the workshop was to describe possible future scenarios for the discipline of family medicine in South Africa and identify possible options for action. The workshop led a group of 40 family physicians from academic, public and private sector settings through a scenario planning process developed by Clem Sunter and Chantell Ilbury. After an overview of the current situation the participants reached a consensus on the rules of the game, key uncertainties, future scenarios and options for action. The main message was that the South African Academy of Family Physicians as a professional body needs to take a stronger role in advocating for the contribution of family medicine to government, health managers and the public. (Full text of the research articles are available online at www.medpharm.tandfonline.com/ojfp) S Afr Fam Pract 2017; DOI: 10.1080/20786190.2016.1272231

scholarly journals Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Nasca ◽  
Charles W. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Medical Education ◽  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Graduate Medical Education ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
The Public ◽  
Strategic Actions ◽  
Graduate Medical ◽  
Future Physician

Abstract The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated.

scholarly journals Future of beekeeping in Northwestern Ethiopia: Scenarios, local adaptation measures and its implications for farmers’ livelihoods

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
ASAMINEW TASSEW ◽  
GETACHEW ALEMAYEHU ◽  
JOHANN SÖLKNER ◽  
MARIA WURZINGER
Keyword(s):  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Watershed Development ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
Business As Usual

Abstract. Tassew A, Alemayehu G, Sölkner J, Wurzinger M. 2019. Future of beekeeping in Northwestern Ethiopia: Scenarios, local adaptation measures and its implications for farmers’ livelihoods. Biodiversitas 20: 1633-1643. For this study, a participatory scenario planning approach was used to understand the driving forces, generate the plausible future scenarios of beekeeping, explore local adaptation measures and its implications for farmers’ livelihoods in Northwestern Ethiopia. Data were collected from three watersheds representing different agro-ecological zones. To identify the driving forces, different methods including key informant interviews, focus group discussions, workshops, researchers observations and literature search were applied. The data were analyzed by ranking followed by controllability, cross-impact and consistency analysis. The results show that nineteen driving forces were identified that are contributes to changes in beekeeping. Out of nineteen six most relevant and locally controllable driving forces (watershed development, deforestation, agrochemicals use, government emphasis for beekeeping development, technical support, and farmers' awareness) were selected to develop different plausible and contrasting scenarios. The three plausible and contrasting scenarios for beekeeping in 2025 are: ‘‘repressive'', ‘‘beekeeping advance'' and ‘‘beekeeping on the margins''. The results show that beekeeping significantly contributes to the livelihoods of farmers to 2025 under ‘‘beekeeping advance'' scenario. In the ‘‘beekeeping on the margins'' scenario, beekeeping has low contribution to the livelihoods of farmers. But the beekeeping is in a system of involution in ‘‘repressive'' scenario and has very low contribution to the livelihoods of farmers. The stakeholders were checked the plausibility of the scenarios and selected the ‘‘repressive’’ scenario as the worst, the ‘‘beekeeping advance’’ scenario as the best, and the ‘‘beekeeping on the margins’’ scenario as the business as usual and intervention strategies were developed to transform the current beekeeping into ‘‘beekeeping advance'' scenario. The study has shown that the participation of stakeholders in the scenario planning process provides knowledge relevant for understanding the dynamics and future scenarios of beekeeping. Hence, interventions to be made by concerned stakeholders to improve the beekeeping in the study areas need to focus on addressing the various and complex driving forces through a system wide and context-specific approach.

Scenarios, their concept, elaboration and application

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Fotr ◽  
Miroslav Špaček ◽  
Ivan Souček ◽  
Emil Vacík
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Companies ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Scenario Approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to elucidate on specific risk mitigation approach which is known as “scenario approach”. Description of stepwise process of their elaboration, which is worth considering for managers, offers feasible tool not only for company risk management improvement but also for significant enhancement of the quality of company strategic planning. Authors also draw attention to advantages and disadvantages of investment and strategic scenario planning. Theoretical implications of using scenario approaches are exemplified both by the set of investment projects and company strategic planning process where method in question was applied. Design/methodology/approach – As for methods applied which fulfilled research strategies, it is worth mentioning following items: analysis which explores particular parts of methodology of scenario elaboration and application, the way of obtaining information, impact on strategy, working with risks and organizational support of outcomes in company environment; synthesis observing context and natural relation of problems solved which supports research hypotheses formulation; induction generalizing facts acquired from results in companies; deduction to be grounds on which conclusion of this paper was drawn up; abstraction used upon evaluation of case studies; comparison assessing consistency and inconsistency of phenomena and objects; description inevitable for characterization of companies and environment in which they operate; interview collecting information inevitable for the evaluation of the way of working with scenarios and company knowledge standards; modelling was used upon consideration about possible future development of factors observed. Findings – The paper arrived at conclusion, that scenario approach, when used appropriately, may significantly mitigate risk exposure of the company. Conclusions which have been made on selected industrial companies can be extended to other industrial branches. Practical application of scenario planning method confirmed that this approach was superior to deterministic single scenario model. Scenario technique thus compensates for deficiencies and omissions which are inherent in simplistic deterministic model. In cases where an investment scenario planning process proved to be insufficient, the paper refers to more advanced techniques like simulation methods or real options. Research limitations/implications – Over past ten years practical test of proposed stepwise process of scenarios elaboration was repeatedly tested on approx ten industrial companies during the tenure of Mr Soucek and Mr Špaček in top managerial positions. Practical implications – This paper offers flexible and feasible toll for scenario elaboration and their further development. Such an approach contributes significantly to the enhancement of company risk management process. Proceedures described were successfully tested in managerial practice by two of authors while holding CEO positions in oil prcessing and pharma business. Social implications – This paper does not have direct social implication. But scenario approach as a powerful tool of risk management process may significantly contribute to company survival and thus impact social status all stakeholders concerned. Therefore social implications should be identified rather on the background of the problem. Originality/value – Notwithstanding some general notion about scenario concept, there is still little evidence that scenario approach is applied in larger extent. It is prevalently due to lack of expertise of respective managers who are obviously puzzled with numerous outcomes to be obtained by this approach. Clearly define procedure of scenarios formation may be conducive to larger exploitation of this approach. Design of the elaboration and application of scenario approach which was proven to be functioning in the practice brings new benefits to risk management exploration.

scholarly journals Local 5G services on campus premises: scenarios for a make 5G or buy 5G decision

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Venkatesh Kulkarni ◽  
Jaspreet Walia ◽  
Heikki Hämmäinen ◽  
Seppo Yrjölä ◽  
Marja Matinmikko-Blue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Network ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Local Spectrum ◽  
University Campus ◽  
End User ◽  
Content Type ◽  
User Data

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to build possible future scenarios for indoor connectivity in a venue such as a university campus and build alternative value network configurations (VNCs) defining different local network deployment options, focused on the Finnish telecom market. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, Schoemaker’s scenario planning method (Schoemaker, 1995) is used to construct future scenarios and the VNC method of Casey et al. (2010) is used to build alternative VNCs. The paper studies the Aalto University campus network for current end-user data usage demand and the existing technology used in meeting the end-user needs and forecasts the demand for the next five years to understand the need for 5G. Findings This research concludes that with the provision of local spectrum licenses, there is an opportunity for venue owners to take the role of 5G local operator on the venue premises. Furthermore, it enables venue owners to collaborate with the incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) in a neutral host model and provide venue-specific connectivity services. Research limitations/implications A detailed economic assessment for the network deployment in the campus is considered for future study. Originality/value Considering the provision for local spectrum licenses, this paper has taken a unique attempt in identifying the future scenarios for local 5G network operations. It provides a strategic direction for the venue owners in adopting 5G technology and whether to make 5G or buy 5G from MNOs.

Prospective games for defence strategic decisions in Brazil

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Correa ◽  
C. H. Cagnin
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Military Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Participatory Foresight ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Participatory Engagement ◽  
The Military ◽  
National Defence

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area. Design/methodology/approach – Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers team – which goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team – civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation’s future; and experts database— experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others. Findings – The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country. Research limitations/implications – However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country’s cultural background. Practical/implications – Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process. Social/implications – This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues. Originality/value – The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian–military dynamic relationship and the diverse viewpoints in defence implications analysis to include a wider share of the Brazilian society.

Residents’ perception towards tourism impacts in Kashmir

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asif Hamid Charag ◽  
Asif Iqbal Fazili ◽  
Irfan Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
Tourism Impacts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
City Tourism ◽  
Significant Difference

Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand the residents’ perception towards environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of tourism development in Kashmir. Design/methodology/approach The research instrument containing 27 items pertaining to six variables is adopted from the literature. A mix-method survey approach is used to solicit residents’ perceptions regarding environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of the current level of tourism development. A total of 326 useful responses were subjected to descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis using SPSS (Version 22.0). Findings In general, the negative and positive impacts of tourism development are well perceived by the residents. The results indicate that the residents display positive perception regarding economic impacts, however, social and environmental impacts are negatively perceived. Furthermore, barring level of education, the study found no significant difference in the residents’ perception towards tourism impacts (environmental, social, cultural, economic, quality of life and cost of living). Research limitations/implications The paper identifies perceived impacts and issues of tourism development thereby, proposing possible mitigating measures. Also, the study identifies the need to develop a comprehensive policy framework addressing the issues related to the resident’s negative feelings towards tourism impacts. Further, the study envisages the need for engaging residents in developing a progressive and participatory planning process for future tourism activities in the area. Social implications The study offers critical social implications for city tourism development. It suggests a community-based approach should be adopted to sensitize residents about the positive benefits of tourism. Originality/value The study is a novel attempt concerning residents’ residents perceptual differences towards tourism impacts. Furthermore, this study investigated socio-cultural impacts of tourism under two separate categories for better understanding. in doing so, this study provides finer understanding of perception of residents towards tourism impacts in Indian context. The findings of the study will prove critical for different stakeholders in developing future tourism framework and policies in the region.

Content Delivery Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behrouz Zolfaghari ◽  
Gautam Srivastava ◽  
Swapnoneel Roy ◽  
Hamid R. Nemati ◽  
Fatemeh Afghah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Content Delivery ◽  
Content Delivery Networks ◽  
Delivery Networks
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