Participatory foresight and reflexive innovation: setting policy goals and developing strategies in a bottom-up, mission-oriented, sustainable way

The urgency of current social challenges is driving new approaches to framing and funding research, development, and innovation. The “mission-oriented” approach framing the EU’s New Horizons funding program is the latest institutional response to the pressing needs of large system transformations we are facing. We view the likely targets of mission-oriented programs as dynamic entities requiring both adaptive, inclusive responses, and anticipatory exploration. We demonstrate how participatory foresight methods provide an essential forum and process for the expression of plural, socio-technological imaginaries. As citizens and other stakeholder groups have demonstrated their myriad capacities to contribute to research and innovation agenda-setting processes in future-oriented citizen dialogs, we argue that such methods are the essential compliment to the mission-oriented framework coming into play. Participatory foresight engages citizens in critical thinking and creative activities to articulate the evolution of socio-technological issues over an extended time horizon, seeking diverse perspectives on what goals and priorities will come to define “missions.” Utilizing outputs from two recent projects, we argue that participatory foresight methods can play an essential role in bridging citizen needs with policy requirements, and will increase the reflexivity of innovation systems that invest the needed time and resources into exploring the depth of multi-actor interests and intersections. Finally, we outline possible impact pathways demonstrating how these “bottom-up” contributions could be integrated into the development of challenge-led innovation priorities.

Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level

Smart energy transition efforts at the municipal level are gaining importance and go far beyond implementing single projects. Decarbonising cities involves complex strategic planning and needs system level thinking and changes. This has been increasingly realised at the municipal level, but challenges remain regarding the tools, involvement of stakeholders and on the development of policies. The focus of the research is on the use of participatory foresight for fostering smart energy transition on a municipal level, the key benefits and success factors that participatory foresight brings, and the replicability of this approach. Within the novel Cities4ZERO framework, an overarching methodology for a smart urban decarbonisation transition, guiding cities through the process of developing the most appropriate strategies, plans, projects, as well as looking for the commitment of key local stakeholders for an effective transition–foresight framework, was developed and tested in five pilot cities. Foresight as applied within the Cities4ZERO framework creates a participatory process which brings stakeholders together to achieve unified scenarios, and a common vision for future urban decarbonisation strategies. The methodology is replicable and increases the quality of strategic energy planning by fostering long-term system thinking.

Exploring the Potential of Groundwater Markets in Agriculture: Results of a Participatory Evaluation in Five French Case Studies

We used a participatory foresight method for assessing if, and how, groundwater markets could be incorporated into local groundwater management policies. We propose an institutional setup adapted to the French water policy context, with a cap and trade scenario introducing groundwater markets in the agricultural sector between now and the 2035 horizon. Considering the local hydrogeological characteristics, we applied this method to five French groundwater basins, and then analyzed the public perception of our scenario by organizing 16 half-day workshops, involving a total of 44 institutional stakeholders and 80 farmers. Overall, almost half of the participants were opposed to the introduction of groundwater markets for various ethical, economic and technical reasons. Many of the preconditions for water trading are still far from being met, and major social and economic risks are anticipated. However, our results also suggest that there might be scope for developing groundwater markets compatible with French water policy at a local scale; the preconditions for this are that specific local hydrogeological and agricultural situations are taken into account, and that a participatory process is developed, involving institutional stakeholders and farmers.

A possible metric for assessing self-efficacy toward postulated futures

Purpose This paper raises a question of how to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity. Among the various assessments of foresight activity, the author explores how to develop and assess an individual’s abilities in relation to foresight activity. More specifically, the author suggests a possible metric for assessing how foresight activity can help individuals cultivate self-efficacy toward postulated futures. This paper aims to propose that researchers and practitioners working in foresight can leverage the concept of self-efficacy toward futures to develop a method of evaluating foresight activities on an individual level. Design/methodology/approach To assess the concept of self-efficacy toward futures, this research identifies the factors that could create a possible metric of self-efficacy with respect to various futures on an individual level. For this study, citizens living in Korea participated in a futures studies program, where the author measured and analyzed to what extent participatory foresight activities could help these individuals perceive their own self-efficacy toward futures. The changes in the participants’ attitudes were measured by conducting the survey before and after the program. Findings Based on the literature review and a survey, the author crafted a potential self-efficacy in relation to a scale of futures, which consists of four subscales: an ability to shape new meanings, an ability to challenge the status quo, an ability to make a decision and put it into action and an ability to learn something new by cooperating with others. These abilities are believed to be relevant elements to prepare for, adapt to and evolve with social changes. This paper also uses the possible metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity in Korea and argues that foresight activity helps Korean individuals perceive self-efficacy toward postulated futures. Originality/value Researchers attempted to answer the question of what foresight activities are generally useful to laypersons. The author proposes that perceiving self-efficacy toward futures is one of the efficacies that foresight pursues. The author endeavors to create a metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight attempts to identify which capabilities can be developed through participation in foresight activities.

Wildcards – natural and artificial: the combination of a panel of experts and Fuzzy TOPSIS

Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future Findings The authors presented a classification of wildcards with the same characteristics being natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). The authors also prioritized the weak signals to deal with the most important ones and take appropriate action in advance so as to minimize possible damages and maximize the benefits of potential wildcards in an uncertain environment. Originality/value In this paper, the authors report on the prioritizing of weak signals by applying Fuzzy TOPSIS and classify wildcards. This is significant because, by identifying the most important weak signals, appropriate actions can be taken in the future if necessary. The paper should be of interest to readers in the area of participatory foresight.