scholarly journals Factors influencing fertilizer demand in developing countries: evidence from Malawi

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alhaji Bukar Mustapha ◽  
Rusmawati Said
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Fertilizer Demand

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine some factors that influence the intensity of fertilizer use in Malawi. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses Engle-Granger, Engle-Yoo three steps and autoregressive distributed lags (ARDLs) approaches to examine the long-run and the short-run dynamics among the variables using annual data from 1961 to 2006. Findings – The econometric results indicate that all the variables exert significance influence on the quantity of fertilizer demanded excluding population growth, while the results of the short-run model indicate that the responsiveness of fertilizer demand to all the variables is significant. Research limitations/implications – Although, this study has provided some helpful results in understanding the major factors responsible for low fertilizer consumption in the study but some time series data on important factors are lacking. Originality/value – The work is different from already existing literature in Malawi. The authors included subsidy and real gross domestic product to account for the effect of macroeconomic shocks and policies, which has not been accounted for by other related empirical studies. Moreover, this study used ARDLs techniques that can overcome the problem of insufficiently long time series data which is a significant contribution to the existing literature.

scholarly journals Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Asset Quality and Deposit Money Banks Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Mbatabbey Joy Ogboru
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Quality

This study investigate the relationship between asset quality and deposit money banks performance in Nigeria over a period of 30 years ranging from 1986 to 2016, utilizing time series data collected from the Nigeria deposit insurance corporation annual reports and accounts, CBN financial stability report and CBN statistically bulletin for various years. The variables of study includes return on asset (ROA) proxy for Deposit Money Bank performance in Nigeria, ratio of non-performing loan to total loan (NPL), ratio of liquid assets to total assets (LAT) and ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities (LAS) as measures of asset quality. The study utilizes both the descriptive and econometric techniques to analyze the time series data. The result shows that there is a short run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Also, the co-integration result reveals the presence of a long run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria while the granger causality result shows evidence of causality between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Based on this we conclude by saying that maintaining sound assets quality position is critical to the long term performance, survival and sustainability of DMBs in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Relationship between Crime and Economic Conditions in Sindh: A Time Series Approach from 1984-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Irfan Hussain Khan ◽  
Khan Alyas ◽  
Nighat Hanif ◽  
Ansa Zaiba
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Reported Crime

Using the time series data from 1984 to 2015, this study attempts to explore Sindh economic situation and the relationship between criminal activities. Three Variables are used for economic conditions, such as crime rate, dropout ratio and unemployment. We check their relationship with the reported crime. Enhanced Dicky Fuller test for unit root process indicates that all variables are stationary at the first level. For long-term relationships, Johanson-Cointegration technology has been applied. The results of the statistical process show that dropout ratio and unemployment are closely related to crime.VCM has been applied to check the short-run relationship between the variables. VCM results suggested that the model we estimate is divergent. Divergent model mean that there is no adjustment from long-run to short-run between variables as they are going away, if we increase the lag length, the model can become divergent but due to crime data unavailability it was difficult to increase the observations and the lags as well. Study gives evidence that economic conditions have significant impact on crimes and increasing dropout which is Positive related with crime in Sindh. It is also shown that the crime is influenced by economic condition. Government is capable to reduce that threat through effective target policies and legislation. The empirical results of this study will enhance understanding of the role of public sector policy formation in promoting national productive capacity by uplifting the positive effect of the Sindh economy.

scholarly journals An ECM Approach for Long Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Output Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Currency exchange rate is an important aspect in modern economy which indicates the strength of domestic currency with respect to international currency. This study uses 42 years’ (1972 to 2013) time series data for Bangladesh in order to empirically determine whether the real exchange rate has significant impact on output growth for Bangladesh by using error correction model (ECM).The time series econometrics properties of the data series have been thoroughly investigated to apply ECM approach. The empirical evidence suggests mixed results; in the short run low exchange rate has positive significant effect while in the long run output growth is positively affected high exchange rate pass through.Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 63(2):105-110, 2015 (July)

China’s FDI inflow into Ethiopia; Does it have relation with bilateral trade?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hana Woldekidan Azmete ◽  
Kahsay Gerezihar Tsaedu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
Integration Analysis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze if a bilateral trade between two countries leads to a foreign direct investment (FDI) using a time series data spanning over the period 2000–2017. Design/methodology/approach The Engle-Granger method of co-integration analysis is applied to the data to estimate if China’s export to Ethiopia led to an inflow of FDI from China to Ethiopia over the long run. Findings The results indicated that bilateral trade (import from China) is a major determinant of Chinese FDI inflow to Ethiopia over the study period. Originality/value A number of studies have been conducted on the determinants of FDI in Ethiopia using time series data at different points of time. However, none of them tried to analyze what attracts FDI from an individual country. Accordingly, this study has concentrated on FDI from China and its relation with bilateral trade between China and Ethiopia as China is the number one FDI source and trade partner of Ethiopia.

Determinants of environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia: exploring the unexplored

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Arshad Hayat ◽  
Umar Burki
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose Environmental degradation is recognized as a serious problem globally, and hence, Saudi Arabia is no exception. This paper aims to focus on the economy of Saudi Arabia to identify the determinants of environmental degradation. Design/methodology/approach Time series data spanning from 1971 to 2014 is used and analyzed using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach. Findings The obtained results reflected that natural resources, per person income and urbanization, have impacted environmental degradation both positively and significantly in the long run. Similarly, an insignificant negative relationship is established between trade openness and environmental degradation. Moreover, energy consumption has positively but insignificantly affected environmental degradation. In the short run, only per capita income has positively influenced environmental degradation while the rest of the variables have lost either significance levels or their direction of relationship has reversed. Originality/value As this is a pioneering study on the economy of Saudi Arabia, therefore, the authors assume that policymakers will find the findings of the current study very useful while formulating and implementing policies to control environmental degradation.

Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the Nigerian exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Onodje ◽  
Temitope Ahmdalat Oke ◽  
Oluwatimilehin Aina ◽  
Nazeer Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Wald Tests ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of crude oil prices on the Nigerian exchange rate with emphasis on discriminating between the effects of positive and negative changes in oil price on exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The authors used monthly time series data from 1996:1 to 2019:6 and adopted two oil price measures, namely, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediary prices. For analysis, the authors used stepwise least squares to estimate a non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model and Wald tests to determine cointegration and the presence of asymmetric effects. Findings The findings showed that positive and negative Brent crude price changes significantly affect exchange rates differently in nominal terms, both in the long-run and short-run. However, the differences were purely in terms of effect size because the exchange rate decreased for both negative and positive oil price changes. Originality/value Whilst empirical research on asymmetries in the effect of oil price on exchange rate abounds, little evidence exists in Nigeria’s case. Although some studies previously tested for asymmetric oil price effects on the Nigerian currency, the approach used did not estimate long and short-run effects or test of long-run and short-run asymmetries. This paper fills this methodological gap using monthly using the NARDL approach. The NARDL approach provided the advantage of estimating effects for the long-run and short-run and testing for asymmetries in both time spans.

scholarly journals Stock market development and economic growth in Tanzania: an ARDL and bound testing approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Saganga Mussa Kapaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic growth and vice versa. Design/methodology/approach The study used the autoregressive distribute lag model (ARDL) with bound testing procedures, the sample covered quarterly time-series data from 2001q1 to 2019q2 in Tanzania. Findings The results suggest that stock market development have both negative and positive causality for both short-run dynamics and long-run relationship with economic growth. Economic growth is found to only cause and relate negatively to liquidity both in the short-run and in the long-run. The results show predominantly a unidirectional causality flow from stock market development to economic growth and finds partial causality flow from economic growth to stock market development, as represented by stock market turnover which proxied liquidity. Originality/value The use of quarterly data to reflect more realistically the dynamics of the variables because yearly data may sometimes cover-up specific dynamics that may be useful for prediction and policy planning. The study uses indices to capture general aspects within the stock market against economic growth as an intuitive way to aggregate the stock market development effects.

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