Lifecycle cost risk analysis for infrastructure projects with modified Bayesian networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nini Xia ◽  
Xueqing Wang ◽  
Ye Wang ◽  
Qiubo Yang ◽  
Xing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Statistical Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Propagation Network ◽  
Project Lifecycle

Purpose Previous research has little specific guidance on how to improve large infrastructures’ risk analysis. This paper aims to propose a practical risk analysis framework across the project lifecycle with Bayesian Networks (BNs). Design/methodology/approach The framework includes three phases. In the qualitative phase, primary risks were identified by literature reviews and interviews; questionnaires were used to determine key risks at each project stage and causal relationships between stage-related risks. In the quantitation, brainstorming and questionnaires, and techniques of ranked nodes/paths, risk map and Bayesian truth serum were adopted. Then, a BN-based risk assessment model was developed, and risk analysis was conducted with AgenaRisk software. Findings Twenty key risks across the lifecycle were determined: some risks were recurring and different risks emerged at various stages with the construction and feasibility most risky. Results showed that previous stages’ risks significantly amplified subsequent stages’ risks. Based on the causality of stage-related risks, a qualitative model was easily constructed. Ranked nodes/paths facilitated the quantification by requiring less statistical knowledge and fewer parameters than traditional BNs. As articulated by a case, this model yielded very simple and easy-to-understand representations of risks and risk propagation pathways. Originality/value Rare research has developed a BN risk assessment model from the perspective of project stages. A structured model, a propagation network among individual risks, stage-related risks, and the final adverse consequence, has been designed. This research provides practitioners with a realistic risk assessment approach and further understanding of dynamic and stage-related risks throughout large infrastructures’ lifecycle. The framework can be modified and used in other real-world risk analysis where risks are complex and develop in stages.

Dynamic safety prewarning mechanism of human–machine–environment using computer vision

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1813-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenpei Xu ◽  
Ting-Kwei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Computer Vision ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Safety Information ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels

PurposeThis study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine safety indicators, which can be categorised into workers’ behaviour, environment and machine-related safety indicators, and the model is embedded in the safety prewarning system. The safety prewarning system can automatically extract safety information from surveillance cameras based on computer vision, assess risks based on the embedded comprehensive risk assessment model, categorise risks into five levels and provide timely suggestions.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed by adopting grey multihierarchical analysis method. The method combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the grey clustering evaluation in the grey theory. Expert knowledge, obtained through the questionnaire approach, contributes to set weights of risk indicators and evaluate risks. Secondly, a safety prewarning system is developed, including data acquisition layer, data processing layer and prewarning layer. Computer vision is applied in the system to automatically extract real-time safety information from the surveillance cameras. The safety information is then processed through the comprehensive risk assessment model and categorized into five risk levels. A case study is presented to verify the proposed mechanism.FindingsThrough a case study, the result shows that the proposed mechanism is capable of analyzing integrated human-machine-environment risk, timely categorising risks into five risk levels and providing potential suggestions.Originality/valueThe comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine risk indicators, identifying three types of entities, workers, environment and machine on the construction site, presenting the integrated risk based on nine indicators. The proposed mechanism, which adopts expert knowledge through Building Information Modeling (BIM) safety simulation and extracts safety information based on computer vision, can perform a dynamic real-time risk analysis, categorize risks into five risk levels and provide potential suggestions to corresponding risk owners. The proposed mechanism can allow the project manager to take timely actions.

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Facilities ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 624-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W.M. Chan ◽  
Joseph H.L. Chan ◽  
Tony Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Target Cost ◽  
Fuzzy Risk Assessment

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for construction projects procured with target cost contracts and guaranteed maximum price contracts (TCC/GMP) using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on an empirical questionnaire survey with relevant industrial practitioners in South Australia. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 34 major risk factors inherent with TCC/GMP contracts were identified through an extensive literature review and a series of structured interviews. A questionnaire survey was then launched to solicit the opinions of industrial practitioners on risk assessment of such risk factors. Findings – The most important 14 key risk factors after the computation of normalised values were selected for undertaking fuzzy evaluation analysis. Five key risk groups (KRGs) were then generated in descending order of importance as: physical risks, lack of experience of contracting parties throughout TCC/GMP procurement process, design risks, contractual risks and delayed payment on contracts. These survey findings also revealed that physical risks may be the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in South Australia. Practical implications – Although the fuzzy risk assessment model was developed for those new-build construction projects procured by TCC/GMP contracts in this paper, the same research methodology may be applied to other contracts within the wide spectrum of facilities management or building maintenance services under the target cost-based model. Therefore, the contribution from this paper could be extended to the discipline of facilities management as well. Originality/value – An overall risk index associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual KRGs can be generated from the model for reference. An objective and a holistic assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgements. The research methodology could be replicated in other countries or regions to produce similar models for international comparisons, and the assessment of risk levels for different types of TCC/GMP projects (including new-build or maintenance) worldwide.

scholarly journals Development of risk assessment tool using damaging energy and argumentation theory for evaluating construction occupational safety and health risks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nor Haslinda Abas ◽  
Nick Blismas ◽  
Helen Lingard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Phase I ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Argumentation Theory ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Safety And Health

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a risk assessment model to assess the occupational safety and health (OSH) risks presented by different construction approaches, namely traditional and industrialised building system (IBS). The development process applies the concept of argumentation theory, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OSH risk into the design process. In addition, an energy damage model is used as an underpinning framework for developing the model.Design/methodology/approachDevelopment of the model was achieved through two phases. Phase I involved collection of data on the activities involved in the construction process and their associated OSH risks, derived from five different case studies, field observation and interviews. Knowledge of design aspects that have the potential to impact on OSH was obtained from document analysis. Using the knowledge obtained in phase I, a model was developed in the form of argument trees (Phase II), which represent a reasoning template with regard to options available to designers when they make judgements about aspects of their designs. Inferences from these aspects eventually determined the magnitude of the damaging energies for every activity involved. Finally, the model was validated by panels of experts, and revisions and amendments were made to the model accordingly.FindingsThe risk assessment model development revealed that the concept of argumentation theory and energy damage model is suitable to represent design safety risk knowledge and effectively address the designer's role in making decisions in their designs and further illuminate the level of OSH risk their designs pose.Practical implicationsThe developed model provides best-practice reasoning support for construction designers, which help them to understand the impact of their designs decisions on worker's safety and health, and thereby assist them to further mitigate the risk to an acceptable level.Originality/valueThis study departs from the existing tool in that the model was developed based upon the combination of argumentation theory and energy damage model. The significance of the model is discussed.

scholarly journals Commercial Vehicles Incapacity Risk Analysis in the Transport Company

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-340
Author(s):  
Andrzej Niewczas ◽  
Łukasz Mórawski ◽  
Ewa Dębicka ◽  
Anna Borucka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Commercial Vehicles ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract A proposal was presented to assess the incapacity risk of commercial vehicles performing transport tasks under market conditions. The risk assessment model in the form of cost was used, which is based on the determination of operational efficiency, referring the probable costs of ensuring the reliability of the transport system to the estimated threshold income. It includes costs: incidental repairs, unplanned downtime and resulting from the presumed loss of client’s trust. Operational research were carried out on a group of several dozen vehicles, registering their operational states during several years of use. The results of the research confirmed the suitability of the incapacity risk model for predicting potential expenses for guarantee the vehicle’s continuity of running in the company and to verify the selection of the vehicle brand and the period of use.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Rail Test Frequencies Using Risk Analysis

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Y. Jeong ◽  
J. E. Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Track Maintenance ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Operational Factors ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
Maintenance And Inspection

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and offshore exploration and production, chemical processing, and pipelines. Risk analysis may also be used as a decision-making tool in the railroad industry to develop systematic improvements in track maintenance and inspection strategies. In the course of conducting research in support of the Federal Railroad Administration, a Monte Carlo risk assessment model has been developed to simulate certain aspects of rail inspection (also referred to as rail testing) to find and remove defects that may grow to sufficient size to cause rail failures. In this paper, the model is used to examine the relationship between the occurrence of rail failures and various operational factors. These operational factors include rail size, average axle loading, and inspection frequency. In addition, the risk assessment model is used to evaluate an alternative rail testing concept in which detector cars would conduct inspections at speeds higher than those used in current practice.

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