Do cross-border investors benchmark commercial real estate markets?

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103
Author(s):  
Cay Oertel ◽  
Jonas Willwersch ◽  
Marcelo Cajias
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Target Market ◽  
Nonlinear Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Relative Attractiveness

Purpose The purpose of this study is to introduce a new perspective on determinants of cross-border investments in commercial real estate, namely, the relative attractiveness of a target market. So far, the literature has analyzed only absolute measures of investment attractiveness as determinants of cross-border investment flows. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study uses a classic ordinary least squares estimation for a European panel data set containing 28 cities in 18 countries, with quarterly observations from Q1/2008 to Q3/2018. After controlling for empirically proven explanatory covariates, the model is extended by the new relative measurement based on relative yields/cap rates and relative risk premia. Additionally, the study applies a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to investigate a potentially nonlinear relationship. Findings The study finds on average a ceteris paribus, statistically significant lagged influence of the proxy for relative attractiveness. Nonetheless, a differentiation is needed; relative risk premia are statistically significant, whereas relative yields are not. Moreover, the GAMM confirms a nonlinear relationship for relative risk premia and cross-border transaction volumes. Practical implications The results are of interest for both academia and market participants as a means of explaining cross-border capital flows. The existing knowledge on determinants is expanded by relative market attractiveness, as well as an awareness of nonlinear relationships. Both insights help to comprehend the underlying transaction dynamics in commercial real estate markets. Originality/value Whereas the existing body of literature focuses on absolute attractiveness to explain cross-border transaction activity, this study introduces relative attractiveness as an explanatory variable.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

scholarly journals Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Devaney
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Usa

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

Bricks, mortar, and proptech

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Saiz
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Models ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
New Business ◽  
It Revolution ◽  
New Business Models

PurposeDigital and information technologies (IT) are becoming silently pervasive in old-fashioned real estate markets. This paper focuses on three important avenues for the diffusion of IT in commercial real estate: online brokerage and sales, the commoditization of space and Fintech in mortgage and equity funding. We describe the main new markets and products created by this IT revolution. The focus is on the pioneering US market, with some attention devoted to the specific firms and institutions taking these innovations into the mainstream. We also carefully analyze the economic underpinnings from which the new technologies can expect to generate cash flows, thus becoming viable—or not. Finally, we discuss their likely impact on established players in the commercial real estate arena.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the author chooses to focus on three separate arenas where the IT revolution—sometimes referred to as Proptech, as applied to real estate—is having discernible impacts: sales and brokerage, space commoditization and online finance platforms. The author invites the reader to think seriously about the economic fundamentals that may—or may not—sustain new business models in Proptech. Real estate economists and investors alike need to be critical of new business models, especially when they are being aggressively marketed by their promoters. Trying to avoid any hype, the author provides thoughts about the likely impact of the innovations on their markets, guided by economic and finance theory, and previous experience.FindingsThe author evaluates the evolution of commercial real estate brokerage. While innovations will, no doubt, have an impact on the ways in which we buy and lease commercial properties, the lessons from the housing market should make us skeptical about the possibility of the new technologies dramatically facilitating disintermediation in this market. In fact, new oligopolies seem to be emerging with regard to market data provision.Practical implicationsProptech will change some aspects of the real estate industry, but not others!Originality/valueAs change pervades the property industry, only a relatively few research pieces are illustrating or—more importantly—providing insights about the likely economic and financial impacts of IT penetration. Similarly, only a few papers have so far addressed the economic viability of the alternative business models of tech startups targeting real estate markets and transactions.

Geographical externalities of local real estate markets

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fotis Mouzakis ◽  
John Henneberry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Location Theory ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Simultaneous Estimation ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Business Services ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Services Industry

PurposeDespite the recent trend of off‐shoring branches of UK services industry to remote locations, urban theory has yet to enlist a theory of industrial rents that formally takes into account the properties of substitution between locations. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the Fujita, et al. model in order to develop theoretical foundations for a pricing theory of contemporary commercial real estate markets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs panel data methods for the simultaneous estimation of local market rent structures, which include a complex of spill‐over effects from all other parts of the national market. The estimations are based on time series of locally adjusted estimates of tenancy demand and supply proxies for 48 UK office centres. Influences from the entity of UK regions are considered by applying a variety of deterministic and stochastic structural variability tests. The estimated structures are subjected to multivariate co‐integration tests for an examination of the stability of structural differentials.FindingsThe paper appears to find considerable support to the hypothesis that rental spill‐overs exist across the network of office centres in the UK. It suggests that the structure of these markets is characterised by certain properties of substitution and complementarity that have generally been observed in a wide range of real consumer or producer markets. This finding is critical to the development of a policy theory for national planning, which takes into account the impacts of local planning policies on national aggregate economic welfare.Research limitations/implicationsThis analysis is limited by the unavailability of a coherent theoretical micro‐economic framework, which may be the focus of further research.Originality/valueThe focus of this paper is on offices and business services industry but the principles can be extended to include industrial space. The paper questions some of the central assumptions and methodological approaches used in existing industrial location theory. It proposes a model that considers location pricing and allocation in relation to strategies to improve the spatial organisation of multinational services firms.

scholarly journals Pricing risk and its use in modelling real estate market yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 419-433
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Measurements

Purpose In the light of past financial and economic turmoil, there has been a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. This has impacted on the pricing of property assets, partly through market sentiment and particularly concerning risk. It also limits modelling accuracy model accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to create a new variable and model to enhance analysis of what drives real estate yields incorporating market sentiment to risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper specifically considers the modelling of property pricing within a volatile economic environment. The theoretical context begins by analysing the relationship between property yields and government bonds. The analytical context then moves on to specifically include a measurement of risk which stresses its role and importance in investment markets since the Global Financial Crisis. The model thus incorporates macroeconomic and real estate data, together with an international risk multiplier, which is calculated within the paper. Findings The paper finds the use of measurements of market sentiment and risk are more powerful tools for modelling yields than previous techniques alone. Research limitations/implications This is an initial paper outlining the creation of sentiment and risk measurements in the financial market and showing an example of its application to a commercial real estate market. The implication is that this could add a major new explanatory variable to modelling of yields. Practical implications The paper highlights the importance of risk in the pricing of commercial real estate, over and above normal variables. It highlights how this can help explain over and undershooting of yields within commercial real estate which would be of great importance in the investment world. Originality/value This paper attempts to explicitly measure market sentiment, pricing of risk and how this impacts real estate pricing.

A post-global financial crisis (GFC) framework for strategic planning, assessment and management decision making for US sustainable commercial real estate

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 589-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pernille Hoy Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand both the facts and the values associated with the breadth of issues, and the principles related to sustainable real estate for institutional investors. Sustainable real estate is a growing sector within the commercial real estate industry, and yet, the decision-making practices of institutional investors related to sustainability are still not well understood. In an effort to fill that gap, this research investigates the post-global financial crisis (GFC) motivations driving the implementation of sustainability initiatives, the implementation strategies used, and the predominant eco-indicators and measures used by institutional investors. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the results of a three-round modified Delphi study conducted in the USA in 2011-2012 investigating the nature of performance measurements and reporting requirements in sustainable commercial real estate and their impact on the real estate decision-making process used by institutional investors. Two rounds of in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 expert panelists. An e-questionnaire was used in the third round to verify qualitative findings. Findings The key industry drivers and performance indicators influencing institutional investor decision making were associated with risk management of assets and whether initiatives can improve competitive market advantage. Industry leaders advocate for simple key performance indicators, which is in contrast to the literature which argues for the need to adopt common criteria and metrics. Key barriers to the adoption of sustainability initiatives are discussed and a decision framework is presented. Practical implications This research aims to help industry partners understand the drivers motivating institutional investors to uptake sustainability initiatives with the aim of improving decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable commercial office buildings. Originality/value Building on the four generations of the sustainability framework presented by Simons et al. (2001), this research argues that the US real estate market has yet again adjusted its relationship with sustainability and revises their framework to include a new, post-GFC generation for decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable real estate.

scholarly journals What sells in a crisis? Determinants of sale probability over a cycle and through a crash

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Scofield ◽  
Steven Devaney
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Selection ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Estate Cycle ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of variables and a number of time periods to identify key determinants of sale probability. Design/methodology/approach Analyzing 12,000 UK commercial real estate transactions (2003 to 2013) the authors use an innovative sampling technique akin to a perpetual inventory approach to generate a sample of held assets for each 12 month interval. Next, the authors use probit models to test how market, owner and property factors affect sale probability in different market environments. Findings The types of properties that are most likely to sell changes between strong and weak markets. Office and retail assets were more likely to sell than industrial both overall and in better market conditions, but were less likely to sell than industrial properties during the downturn from mid-2007 to mid-2009. Assets located in the City of London more likely to sell in both strong and weak markets. The behavior of different groups of owners changed over time, and this indicates that the type of owner might have implications for the liquidity of individual assets over and above their physical and locational attributes. Practical implications Variation in sale probability over time and across assets has implications for real estate investment management both in terms of asset selection and the ability to rebalance portfolios over the course of the cycle. Results also suggest that sample selection may be an issue for commercial real estate price indices around the globe and imply that indices based on a limited group of owners/sellers might be susceptible to further biases when tracking market performance through time. Originality/value The study differs from the existing literature on sale probability as the authors analyzed samples of transactions drawn from all investor types, a significant advantage over studies based on data restricted to samples of domestic institutional investors. As well, information on country of origin for buyers and sellers allows us to explore the influence of foreign ownership on the probability of sale. Finally, the authors not only analyze all transactions together, but the authors also look at transactions in five distinct periods that correspond with different phases of the UK commercial real estate cycle. This paper considers the UK real estate market, but it is likely that many of the findings hold for other major commercial real estate markets.

Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document