Demand for housing choices in the north of France: a discrete approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Flambard
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Capital City ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North

Purpose This research aims to analyse the housing demand in northern France with respect to socio-demographic variables and the distance between the residence and the workplace. Design/methodology/approach Econometrics with discrete choice models are used to study the three main dimensional choices of housing demand: tenure, type and location. A contribution is to use a heteroscedastic logit model where the variance of the error term is allowed to differ over alternatives and to capture in particular the heterogeneity of tastes. As a matter of fact, household characteristics are very likely to influence the magnitude of the scale parameter in the choice of housing alternatives and then influencing the results if it is not taken into account. Applications for housing demand are nearly non-existent. This paper fills this gap. Findings Econometric estimation confirms that residential choices are influenced by age, income and size of the household, as well as by the rent-to-income ratio. An increase in any of these variables decreases the probability of choices of all the alternatives other than the most often chosen alternative (which is for this application house ownership in the suburb). Moreover, the distance to work systematically influences the housing choice for single-parent families and two-earner households. Additionally, preferences are found to significantly differ between local housing markets, specifically between Lille (a large agglomeration and capital city of the North area) and Dunkerque (an industrialised area). The geographical areas are defined based on INSEE employment zones (“zones d’emplois”). Research limitations/implications This research has been performed for the north of France and may not hold for other areas even though the methodology can be replicated and the mechanisms at play are quite similar elsewhere. Practical implications An important conclusion for sustainable development is the importance to improve city centre amenities relative to those of the suburb or to increase the services associated with high-density dwelling because clearly the most desired alternative remains a house in the suburb. The housing market in the Dunkerque area has some special features characterised by a strong industrial landscape (with port and heavy-duty industrial activities). In this context, amenities provided by the city centre offset the strong attraction of a house in the suburb. Social implications This research shows that households with similar characteristics tend to prefer the same type of real estate property. Therefore, to avoid social segregation, it is important that housing supply respond to different household preferences and needs in the different segments of the housing market. Moreover, the housing supply should take into account the specificities of the geographical areas (both in terms of population who may have a different profile) and in terms of amenities. Originality/value This research is one of the very few conducted ones on discrete housing choices in France (with the notable exception of De Palma et al., 2007 for the choice of location). Three simultaneous choices are considered: tenure (including social housing which is almost always ignored), type of building and location. The authors have shown that it is important to take into account the heterogeneity of the preferences in the econometric model with a heteroscedastic logit model.

Italian millennials' preferences for wine: an exploratory study

2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (8) ◽  
pp. 2403-2423
Author(s):  
Federico Nassivera ◽  
Gianluigi Gallenti ◽  
Stefania Troiano ◽  
Francesco Marangon ◽  
Marta Cosmina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Generation Y ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Random Parameter ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wine Consumption

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the wine consumption among young people belonging to the so-called millennial generationDesign/methodology/approachThis study uses a questionnaire and a choice experiment (CE) with a multinomial logit model (MNL), implementing a random parameter logit model (RPL), to investigate the attitudes of millennials towards wine consumption, their purchasing behaviours and their willingness to pay for attributes of the products; in particular regarding the follwing: region of origin, “winescape”, certification, carbon footprint claim and price.FindingsMillennials appear to drink wine less frequently; they consume it more often in social on-premise settings, having a slightly higher willingness to pay and preferring carbon-neutral brands when choosing wine.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitation of this research was the analysis of a simulated situation where consumers declared their intention to purchase and not the effective purchase behaviour in the market.Further research should investigate wider millennials groups, also using the new media communication tools that characterise the communication behaviour of Generation Y. In this way, it would be possible to interview a millennial group at the national or international level.Practical implicationsThe research identifies some characteristics of millennials’ habits that can take into account the strategies of wine companies in order to develop a constructive relationship with Generation Y in Italy.Social implicationsThis research contributes to knowledge regarding the wine consumption habits of Italian millennials.Originality/valueThis paper applies discrete choice models to consumption situations in order to analyse millennials' preference and their willingness to pay for some innovative attributes of wine, in particular the carbon footprint.

The housing demand analysis and prediction of the real estate based on the AWGM (1, N) model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Xiong ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
Xi Hu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Order ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Grey Relational

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to seek to drive the modernization of the entire national economy and maintain in the long-term stability of the whole society; this paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem. First, a novel variable SW evaluation algorithm is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis, and then the grey relational analysis (GRA) algorithm is utilized to select influencing factors of the commodity housing market. Finally, the AWGM (1, N) model is established to predict the housing demand.FindingsThis paper selects seven factors to predict the housing demand and find out the order of grey relational ranked from large to small: the completed area of the commodity housing> the per capita housing area> the one-year lending rate> the nonagricultural population > GDP > average price of the commodity housing > per capita disposable income.Practical implicationsThe model constructed in the paper can be effectively applied to the analysis and prediction of Chinese real estate market scientifically and reasonably.Originality/valueThe factors of the commodity housing market in Wuhan are considered as an example to analyze the sales area of the commodity housing from 2015 to 2017 and predict its trend from 2018 to 2019. The comparison between demand for the commodity housing actual value and one for model predicted value is capability to verify the effectiveness of the authors’ proposed algorithm.

The dynamics of housing affordability and housing demand analysis in Ankara

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 828-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akin Öztürk ◽  
Yunus Emre Kapusuz ◽  
Harun Tanrıvermiş
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type

Purpose Information about the current and future composition of the population in terms of household size and the desired housing preferences provides a good foundation for determining current and future housing needs. The policy-makers and developers can also use such knowledge as a starting point in their housing and commercial real estate investment decisions. In Turkey, urbanization and housing issues have accompanied the growth of industrialization. Within the scope of the country’s urbanization history, various instruments have been used to solve the lack of housing issues. The constructed houses should be accessible or affordable by fixed-income earners in the middle and lower socio-economic classes, who are mostly excluded. In particular, the real estate development sector has taken manageable risks by closely following the changing social and economic conditions and developing a variety of housing concepts. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the housing sector situation and affordability issues and then use time series analysis to present relationships between macroeconomic factors and housing demand in Ankara region. Design/methodology/approach The approach uses a survey of recent housing projects cover 2016 to 2018 for housing affordability conditions. Also, the study uses the Johansen co-integration test, variance analysis and impulse-response test to explain the relationships between macroeconomic indicators and housing demand for Ankara. Findings According to the results of time series analysis, the macroeconomic factors are affecting the demand and the number of houses sold. The research results try to find a negative or positive correlation between the numbers of houses sold and the monthly macroeconomic variables. Mortgage interest rates, usage permits, construction permits and household expenditure were found the most correlated with housing sold as a representative proxy of housing demand. This paper claims that current housing affordability is related to current housing supply and demand variables. If housing supply (as construction and usage permits) and income (as interest rates and expenditures) are at favorable levels, then housing transaction volumes increase. Research limitations/implications This paper highlights the need to examine how to assist developers to more rapidly develop knowledge and experience to reflect the implications of change in practice. This paper is formulating a housing demand model for real estate developers, using number of house sales and other administrative statistics in Ankara region. Practical implications If macroeconomic conditions are stable, then this encourages consumers to invest for housing whether they are affordable or not. According to the results, key factors of housing market are based on interest rates, income expectation and gaining social status. The consumers anymore not only want to buy a house to live and also want to gaining prestige. Originality/value The paper not only shows that current price is affordable or not but also supports why price is going up although price is not affordable. The findings identify how the market is developing and adhering to a product model development theory. The paper is different from previous studies because of the use of monthly income and supply proxies together in Turkey with time series model. These results are close to the theoretical expectations and provide good indicators for policy-makers.

New housing supply and price reactions: evidence from Spanish markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paloma Taltavull de la Paz
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Recursive Procedure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spanish Regions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The paper develops a housing model equation for Spain and selected regions to estimate new supply elasticity. The aim of the paper is to assess the role of housing supply on price evolution and explain the fall in housing starts since the start of the credit crunch. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a pooled EGLS specification controlling for the presence of cross-section heteroskedasticity. Fixed effect estimators are calculated to capture regional heterogeneity. The model uses secondary data (quarterly) for 17 Spanish regions over the period 1990-2012. A recursive procedure is applied to estimate model parameters starting with a baseline model (1990-1999) and successively adding one-year time information. Elasticities, as well as explanatory power from models, are reported and jointly analyzed. Elasticity is interpreted as the extent to which market mechanisms drive developer responses. Findings – Elasticities of new supply are shown to be very stable during all periods but characterized by differences in response at a regional level. Elasticity ranges from 0.8 to 1.3 across regions. The model reports a non-market-oriented mechanism that guides building decisions. The credit crunch and debt crisis have had a double negative effect capturing the cumulative effect of exogenous shocks. Research limitations/implications – Elastic responses restrained the effects of over-pricing in the period of strong demand pressures in the early 2000s. Changes in elasticity parameters over time suggest that long-term elasticity in housing supply depends on the specific region analyzed. The results show that the credit crunch shock had varying degrees of severity in Spanish regions, dramatically reducing house-building because of the high sensitivity to changes in prices. Practical implications – Estimated elasticity may be used to forecast responses to changes in housing prices. The results add to the understanding of the equilibrium mechanism in the housing market across regions. Originality/value – This is the first article that analyses housing supply, calculates supply elasticities and measures the impact of the credit crunch on the housing market from the supply side in Spain. The paper adds evidence to the debate concerning the equilibrium mechanism in the housing market.

Club convergence and drivers of house prices across Turkish cities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lokman Gunduz ◽  
Mustafa Kemal Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordered Logit Model ◽  
Convergence Clubs ◽  
Convergence Club

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the convergence pattern of residential house prices in a panel of 55 major cities in Turkey over the period between 2010 and 2018 and to investigate the determinants of convergence club formations.Design/methodology/approachThe authors applied the log t-test to identify the convergence clubs and estimated ordered logit model to determine the key drivers.FindingsThe results suggest that there are five convergence clubs and confirm the heterogeneity of the Turkish housing market. Istanbul, the commercial capital, and Mugla, an attractive tourist destination, are at the top of the housing market and followed by the cities located in the western part, particularly along the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of Turkey. Moreover, the ordered logit model results point out that the differences in employment rate, climate, population density and having a metropolitan municipality play a significant role in determining convergence club membership.Practical implicationsLarge-scale policy measures aiming to increase employment opportunities in rural cities of central and eastern provinces and providing lower land prices and property taxes in the metropolitan cities of Turkey can help mitigate some of the divergence in the house prices across cities.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in employing a new data set at the city level containing 55 cities in Turkey, which is by far the largest in terms of city coverage among emerging market economies to implement the log t-test. It also contributes to the literature on city-specific determinants of convergence club formation in the case of an emerging economy.

scholarly journals Assessing the effects of housing market shocks on output: the case of South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Market Shocks

Purpose This paper aims to assess the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa, by focusing on the real private consumption channel. Design/methodology/approach It measures housing market shocks as non-monetary housing shocks, uses a data set covering the period 1969Q4-2014Q4 and uses the agnostic identification procedure. Findings The paper finds that 20 per cent of the variation in house prices is explained by these shocks. The paper also finds that the effects of housing demand shocks on real private consumption are short-lived and generate a transitory real output response. Overall, housing demand shocks have managed to explain nearly 13 per cent and 14 per cent of the variation in real private consumption and real output respectively, over 20-quarters ahead forecast revision. Research limitations/implications This finding suggests that shocks emanating from the housing market in the country are essential and should be considered when making macroeconomic policy decisions. Originality/value None of the existing studies, to our knowledge, have empirically assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output directly. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature by assessing the direct impact of housing market shocks on the real output, using South Africa as a case study.

Job satisfaction in developing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 192-210
Author(s):  
Nguyen Anh ◽  
Ngoc-Minh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Nguyen Thi Tuong Anh ◽  
Phuong Mai Thi Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Wage Policy ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Training Plan ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute to this literature on developing countries by investigating the determinants of job satisfaction in Vietnam where the economics literature on this issue is virtually non-existent. The authors also contribute to the literature on income comparison by extending beyond the within-firm co-worker income comparison.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a generalized order logit model for job satisfaction as statistical tests suggest that the parallel-lines assumption, which is often invoked in previous studies using the standard logit model, does not hold.FindingsFor Vietnam, the authors find that absolute and relative incomes as well as human resource practices such as efficiency wage and training policy have an impact on workers’ satisfaction. Workers in the foreign direct investment (FDI) sectors behave a bit differently from their peers in the domestic sector.Originality/valueTaking advantage of a unique matched employer–employee data set collected in 2008 by the North-South Institute (Canada) and the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, the authors are able to investigate the impact of a number of important job characteristics on job satisfaction such as absolute and reference incomes, wage policy, training plan for workers, union membership and job position, and, at the same time, to disentangle the possible differences in job satisfaction of workers in domestic vs FDI firms.

Housing market will be an election issue in Canada

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Income Households

Significance A collapse in the housing market, which would hit indebted Canadians hard and contribute to a credit crunch that impacts the wider economy, remains unlikely but record house prices and the lack of affordable homes will be issues in the upcoming election. Impacts Consistently high house prices may see young and low-income households give up the idea of home ownership altogether. The prolonged failure of government to ensure more affordable housing will mean widening disparities between owners and renters. Housing demand in smaller markets around major cities, boosted by the pandemic, will cool with a return to office working.

OVERSUPPLY OF THE HIGH-COST HOUSING IN MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Fazilah Ramli ◽  
Rozlin Zainal ◽  
Maimunah Ali
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Huge Number ◽  
Housing Type ◽  
Housing Units

High overhang of housing rates together with the price of houses offered continues to rise lead to Malaysian housing market become very unaffordable. Therefore, it is important to investigate the reason behind the developer’s action in continuing to develop the high-cost housing despite the huge number of unsold housing units in the market in Malaysia. Respondents involved in this study were housing developers from Johor, Selangor and Perak who are currently or previously involved in the high-cost housing development projects that priced above RM300,000. The paper is expected that the developers able to meet the actual housing supply for high-cost housing type.

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