The dynamics of housing affordability and housing demand analysis in Ankara

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 828-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akin Öztürk ◽  
Yunus Emre Kapusuz ◽  
Harun Tanrıvermiş
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type

Purpose Information about the current and future composition of the population in terms of household size and the desired housing preferences provides a good foundation for determining current and future housing needs. The policy-makers and developers can also use such knowledge as a starting point in their housing and commercial real estate investment decisions. In Turkey, urbanization and housing issues have accompanied the growth of industrialization. Within the scope of the country’s urbanization history, various instruments have been used to solve the lack of housing issues. The constructed houses should be accessible or affordable by fixed-income earners in the middle and lower socio-economic classes, who are mostly excluded. In particular, the real estate development sector has taken manageable risks by closely following the changing social and economic conditions and developing a variety of housing concepts. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the housing sector situation and affordability issues and then use time series analysis to present relationships between macroeconomic factors and housing demand in Ankara region. Design/methodology/approach The approach uses a survey of recent housing projects cover 2016 to 2018 for housing affordability conditions. Also, the study uses the Johansen co-integration test, variance analysis and impulse-response test to explain the relationships between macroeconomic indicators and housing demand for Ankara. Findings According to the results of time series analysis, the macroeconomic factors are affecting the demand and the number of houses sold. The research results try to find a negative or positive correlation between the numbers of houses sold and the monthly macroeconomic variables. Mortgage interest rates, usage permits, construction permits and household expenditure were found the most correlated with housing sold as a representative proxy of housing demand. This paper claims that current housing affordability is related to current housing supply and demand variables. If housing supply (as construction and usage permits) and income (as interest rates and expenditures) are at favorable levels, then housing transaction volumes increase. Research limitations/implications This paper highlights the need to examine how to assist developers to more rapidly develop knowledge and experience to reflect the implications of change in practice. This paper is formulating a housing demand model for real estate developers, using number of house sales and other administrative statistics in Ankara region. Practical implications If macroeconomic conditions are stable, then this encourages consumers to invest for housing whether they are affordable or not. According to the results, key factors of housing market are based on interest rates, income expectation and gaining social status. The consumers anymore not only want to buy a house to live and also want to gaining prestige. Originality/value The paper not only shows that current price is affordable or not but also supports why price is going up although price is not affordable. The findings identify how the market is developing and adhering to a product model development theory. The paper is different from previous studies because of the use of monthly income and supply proxies together in Turkey with time series model. These results are close to the theoretical expectations and provide good indicators for policy-makers.

Developer constraints on housing supply in urban Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Owusu-Ansah ◽  
Kenneth W. Soyeh ◽  
Paul K. Asabere
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This study aims to document the major underlying forces prohibiting housing development in urban Ghana. Previous studies in Ghana have not empirically examined these constraints, but an empirical examination of these factors would help to formulate proper policies to address the housing shortage problems in Ghana. This paper fills this gap. Design/methodology/approach Using a purposive sampling technique, the authors surveyed the chief executive officers (CEOs) of private real estate development companies within Accra and Tema with a Likert scale questionnaire to measure the severity of the factors hindering housing development in these areas. Findings The results show that real estate developers consider the supply problems in housing to be driven mainly by formal and informal institutional factors. A large percentage of the CEOs reported that land tenure arrangements, lengthy procedure involved in securing building permits and process of land acquisition and registration in Ghana were the major factors that significantly affected housing supply. The difficulty in accessing development funds, underdeveloped mortgage market and high interest rates were some of the market-based factors constraining housing development. Originality/value This study empirically examines the factors that hinder housing development in Ghana, making a clear distinction between the market and institutional forces. The paper proposes policy recommendations for a more effective and direct government intervention to improve urban housing supply.

scholarly journals Study on Measuring of Real Estate Speculative Bubble: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 334
Author(s):  
Niyazi Berk ◽  
Sabriye Biçen ◽  
Nadire Seyidova
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Real Estate Bubble ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Income Ratio

The investor's expectation of future price increases on real estate is causing to further rise of prices. In the 1990s, Turkey’s real estate price / rental income ratio was around 10, now is between 17-20 years. On the other hand, as a result of insufficient innovation and incentive application of industry, some companies have left their core activity and moved to the consruction industry. Studies using time series analysis with Turkey’s data show that GDP growth and interest rates have a great impact on investment decisions of consruction companies. Using Turkstat, Bloomberg and Eurostat data, the empirical part of this study present the relationship between interest rate and GDP growth and consruction investments. The analysis will continue with cross-city-time-series analysis for a sample of 4 well-developed cities of turkey, in terms of construction investments. Finally, measuring the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio, the gross rental yield and the house ownership ratio will be compared to those of the metropolitan cities in Europe, whether there is a real estate bubble in Turkey or not.

Exploring the dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis based on time series analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linghe Huang ◽  
Qinghua Zhu ◽  
Jia Tina Du ◽  
Baozhen Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Rider Problem ◽  
Series Analysis

Purpose – Wiki is a new form of information production and organization, which has become one of the most important knowledge resources. In recent years, with the increase of users in wikis, “free rider problem” has been serious. In order to motivate editors to contribute more to a wiki system, it is important to fully understand their contribution behavior. The purpose of this paper is to explore the law of dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis. Design/methodology/approach – After developing a dynamic model of contribution behavior, the authors employed both the metrological and clustering methods to process the time series data. The experimental data were collected from Baidu Baike, a renowned Chinese wiki system similar to Wikipedia. Findings – There are four categories of editors: “testers,” “dropouts,” “delayers” and “stickers.” Testers, who contribute the least content and stop contributing rapidly after editing a few articles. After editing a large amount of content, dropouts stop contributing completely. Delayers are the editors who do not stop contributing during the observation time, but they may stop contributing in the near future. Stickers, who keep contributing and edit the most content, are the core editors. In addition, there are significant time-of-day and holiday effects on the number of editors’ contributions. Originality/value – By using the method of time series analysis, some new characteristics of editors and editor types were found. Compared with the former studies, this research also had a larger sample. Therefore, the results are more scientific and representative and can help managers to better optimize the wiki systems and formulate incentive strategies for editors.

Decision time for ACEES Group LLC: to buy or to lease?

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 394-426
Author(s):  
Sanjay Kudrimoti ◽  
Raminder Luther ◽  
Sanjay Jain
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Business Students ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Business Incubator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Valuation

Synopsis As the move from the business incubator loomed, Abdul Khan had to decide where his business should relocate to. ACEES Group LLC, a small consulting firm, had grown from three friends working out of Abdul Khan’s house to a 20-person firm generating more than a million dollars in revenue within five years. This growth had necessitated the need for a larger and more prominent place. Although Abdul knew he did not want to renew the lease at the incubator, and he did not want to move his business too far from its current location, but the decision he had to make was whether ACEES Group should lease a commercial place or buy its own property. He was particularly torn because the real estate prices had fallen considerably, and were now on the mend and interest rates were still low. Research methodology The primary source of materials in the case was an interview with the owner (pseudo name: Abdul Khan). The owner wishes to remain anonymous. The financial statements of the firm produced in the case have been modified by a fixed factor so as to disguise the actual numbers but not materially alter the information in any fashion. Other secondary sources of materials include information about the business incubator program, the MBE certification and its benefits through the State of Florida, real estate and lease rates in Central Florida and other economic information. Relevant courses and levels This case is primarily intended for undergraduate students taking a course in entrepreneurship, real estate investments or financial management, with emphasis on real estate valuation, cash flow forecasting and/or valuation of business. Students should be familiar with time value of money concepts, understand the concept of NPV and IRR, and preferably be comfortable in the use of Excel. This instructor manual provides all calculations of space needs analysis, and discounted cash flow analysis for lease vs buy analysis. A few suggestions to discuss qualitative aspects of this decision making are also included.

scholarly journals A Time Series Analysis of the Nexus Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-91
Author(s):  
Amassoma Ditimi ◽  
Bolarinwa Ifeoluwa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Government

AbstractSince macroeconomic fundamentals have been found to play a vital role for changes in the economy of a country. Consequently, the onus is on the appropriate regulatory authorities to take measures in making amendments in these policies to put the economy on the right development track. The aim of this study is to use time series analysis to empirically showcase the nexus between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock prices in Nigeria. The method used for this study was the Co-integration test and the EGARCH technique to estimate the possible influence of the selected macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices. Volatility was captured by using quarterly data and estimated using GARCH (1,1) respectively. The study found there is a positive relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommends that the Federal authority should put in place policy measures that will enable the exchange rate to be relatively stabilized. This is because empirical evidence from studies has shown that exchange rate affects stock market prices. In addition, the government authority should ensure an enabling environment that would build the mindset of institutional investors in the Nigerian stock market due to the existence of information asymmetry problems among potential investors.

An analysis on housing affordability in Malaysian housing markets and the home buyers’ preference

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Soon ◽  
Consilz Tan
Keyword(s):  
Housing Policy ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Monthly Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Residential Units

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the housing preference and housing affordability in Malaysian housing markets. There is a lack of research on the gap between supply and demand of houses in this market. Urbanization has increased the demand of houses in urban areas. However, the high demand in residential units increases the housing price which causes the affordability level dropped. Besides, the residences that provided by developers do not meet the expectation of the home buyers. There are three attributes that examined in this research to understand the home buyers’ preference. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides quantitative analysis on the housing affordability and the home buyers’ preference. This paper presents the results on the home buyers’ housing affordability and buying preference on houses. In addition, the study further confirmed the significant relationship between monthly income and type of preferred house, as well as monthly income and range of housing affordability using cross-tabulation analysis. Findings The findings indicated that the housing price in the current market is not affordable by most of the homebuyers and there are certain attributes that important to home buyers which should not be neglected. Research limitations/implications This paper helps to shed light on the planning of Malaysian housing policy especially on the issue of providing affordable housing in urban areas. Practical implications Policymakers shall consider the elements of economics, social acceptance and feasibility of Malaysian housing policies to achieve sustainability in Malaysian housing markets. With the current government’s move to promote housing affordability amongst B40 income groups, local government and housing developers should work together in addressing housing demand in accordance to states and ensure that there is a more targeted housing policy. Social implications With the detailed analysis on the home buyers’ preference, it helps to promote sustainable housing developments in meeting basic housing needs and preference. Originality/value This is the first study to examine relationship between Malaysian housing affordability with monthly income and type of preferred house. In the meantime, the housing affordability is compared with mean housing price and type of perceived affordable house. The paper presented homebuyer’s preference in housing for the consideration of government and housing developers in providing affordable housing.

The housing demand analysis and prediction of the real estate based on the AWGM (1, N) model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Xiong ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
Xi Hu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Order ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Grey Relational

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to seek to drive the modernization of the entire national economy and maintain in the long-term stability of the whole society; this paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes an improved model based on the first-order multivariable grey model [GM (1, N) model] for predicting the housing demand and solving the housing demand problem. First, a novel variable SW evaluation algorithm is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis, and then the grey relational analysis (GRA) algorithm is utilized to select influencing factors of the commodity housing market. Finally, the AWGM (1, N) model is established to predict the housing demand.FindingsThis paper selects seven factors to predict the housing demand and find out the order of grey relational ranked from large to small: the completed area of the commodity housing> the per capita housing area> the one-year lending rate> the nonagricultural population > GDP > average price of the commodity housing > per capita disposable income.Practical implicationsThe model constructed in the paper can be effectively applied to the analysis and prediction of Chinese real estate market scientifically and reasonably.Originality/valueThe factors of the commodity housing market in Wuhan are considered as an example to analyze the sales area of the commodity housing from 2015 to 2017 and predict its trend from 2018 to 2019. The comparison between demand for the commodity housing actual value and one for model predicted value is capability to verify the effectiveness of the authors’ proposed algorithm.

The diverging role of the systematic risk factors: evidence from real estate stock markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Lang ◽  
Alexander Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Systematic Risk Factors ◽  
Relationship Of

Purpose – The risk-return relationship of real estate equities is of particular interest for investors, practitioners and researchers. The purpose of this paper is to examine, in an asset pricing framework, whether the systematic risk factors play a significantly different role in explaining the returns of listed real estate companies, compared to general equities. Design/methodology/approach – Running the difference test of the Fama-French three-factor and the liquidity-augmented asset pricing model, the authors analyze the effect of the systematic risk factors related to market, size, BE/ME and liquidity in a time-series setting over the period July 1992 to June 2012. By applying the propensity score matching (PSM) algorithm, the authors bypass the “curse of dimensionality” of traditional matching techniques and identify a comparable control sample of general equities, in terms of the relevant firm characteristics of size, BE/ME and liquidity. Findings – The empirical results indicate that European real estate equity returns load significantly differently on the size, value and liquidity factor, while the influence of the market factor seems to be equivalent. In addition, the authors find an economically and statistically significant underperformance of European real estate equities, after accounting for the diverging role of systematic risk factors. Running the conditional time-series regression, the authors further reveal that these findings are predominately caused by the divergent risk-return behavior of real estate equities in economic downturns. Practical implications – Due to the diverging role of the systematic risk factors in pricing real estate equities, the authors provide evidence of potential diversification benefits for investors and portfolio managers. Originality/value – This is the first real estate asset pricing study to dissect the unique risk-return relationship of real estate equities by employing propensity score matching.

Demand for housing choices in the north of France: a discrete approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Flambard
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Capital City ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North

Purpose This research aims to analyse the housing demand in northern France with respect to socio-demographic variables and the distance between the residence and the workplace. Design/methodology/approach Econometrics with discrete choice models are used to study the three main dimensional choices of housing demand: tenure, type and location. A contribution is to use a heteroscedastic logit model where the variance of the error term is allowed to differ over alternatives and to capture in particular the heterogeneity of tastes. As a matter of fact, household characteristics are very likely to influence the magnitude of the scale parameter in the choice of housing alternatives and then influencing the results if it is not taken into account. Applications for housing demand are nearly non-existent. This paper fills this gap. Findings Econometric estimation confirms that residential choices are influenced by age, income and size of the household, as well as by the rent-to-income ratio. An increase in any of these variables decreases the probability of choices of all the alternatives other than the most often chosen alternative (which is for this application house ownership in the suburb). Moreover, the distance to work systematically influences the housing choice for single-parent families and two-earner households. Additionally, preferences are found to significantly differ between local housing markets, specifically between Lille (a large agglomeration and capital city of the North area) and Dunkerque (an industrialised area). The geographical areas are defined based on INSEE employment zones (“zones d’emplois”). Research limitations/implications This research has been performed for the north of France and may not hold for other areas even though the methodology can be replicated and the mechanisms at play are quite similar elsewhere. Practical implications An important conclusion for sustainable development is the importance to improve city centre amenities relative to those of the suburb or to increase the services associated with high-density dwelling because clearly the most desired alternative remains a house in the suburb. The housing market in the Dunkerque area has some special features characterised by a strong industrial landscape (with port and heavy-duty industrial activities). In this context, amenities provided by the city centre offset the strong attraction of a house in the suburb. Social implications This research shows that households with similar characteristics tend to prefer the same type of real estate property. Therefore, to avoid social segregation, it is important that housing supply respond to different household preferences and needs in the different segments of the housing market. Moreover, the housing supply should take into account the specificities of the geographical areas (both in terms of population who may have a different profile) and in terms of amenities. Originality/value This research is one of the very few conducted ones on discrete housing choices in France (with the notable exception of De Palma et al., 2007 for the choice of location). Three simultaneous choices are considered: tenure (including social housing which is almost always ignored), type of building and location. The authors have shown that it is important to take into account the heterogeneity of the preferences in the econometric model with a heteroscedastic logit model.

Time Series Analysis of International Dollar Denominated Interest Rates

1979 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph E. Finnerty ◽  
Thomas Schneeweis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
International Dollar
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