Effects of reputation and credibility on monetary policy: theory and evidence for Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Julio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Theory ◽  
Inflation Bias ◽  
Empirical Field

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that both the reputation of the monetary authority and the credibility of the regime of inflation targeting are important to reduce the inflation bias and the effort of the monetary authority in an emerging economy. Design/methodology/approach – The paper develops a model which shows that the gain of credibility reduces the effort of the monetary authority in the conduct of monetary policy. The paper presents an econometric analysis for Brazil through ordinary least squares, generalized method of moments (GMM), system of equations by GMM and vector autoregressive. Findings – The findings suggest that the reputation of the monetary authority is important to the improvement of credibility, and the gains of credibility reduce the effort of the monetary authority in the conduct of monetary policy, reducing the variations of the monetary base. Originality/value – In the theoretical field, the study develops a model which shows that credibility is important to reduce both the inflation bias and the efforts of the monetary authority in the conduct of monetary policy. In the empirical field: first, it proposes a new index of reputation for the monetary authority; second, it demonstrates that the gain of reputation improves credibility, but also that attempts to exploit the output-inflation trade-off reduces credibility; third, the analysis found that the gains of credibility reduce the efforts of the monetary authority in the conduct of monetary policy.

Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 1142-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Central Bank Communication

Purpose – Due to the fact that studies on central bank communication in emerging countries are still scarce and there are few studies related to the influence that central bank’s perspectives about the state of the economy have on inflation expectations in emerging economies, the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: it proposes an indicator of the central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of the COPOM meetings, and, it analyzes the influence of central bank communication on expert inflation expectations through such indicator. Design/methodology/approach – Due to the fact that the perception of the Central Bank of Brazil is not directly observable, it is measured through the fuzzy set theory by an indicator that captures the informational content of the minutes of the COPOM meetings. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares, the generalized method of moments and vector-autoregressive through impulse-response analysis. Findings – The findings suggest that the expectations of financial market experts react according to the content of the information provided by the central bank, i.e., announcements cause deterioration of expectations in times of instability, and reduce inflation expectations when inflation is controlled. The results also support the idea that the credibility of inflation targeting plays a key role in determining inflation expectations. Practical implications – This paper suggests a new approach on studies about central bank communication. The focus here is not on the effect of the announcements in terms of future monetary policy, but on the perception of the central bank in terms of inflation. This central bank’s perception reflects the optimistic or pessimistic view about the economic outlook and risk of inflation and this perception is considered by experts of financial markets. Originality/value – For Brazil, there are no studies about the influence of communication through the minutes of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee meetings on inflation expectations. The authors develop an indicator in order to measure central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of COPOM meetings.

Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 266-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Nicolay ◽  
Ana Jordânia de Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Central Bank Communication

PurposeStudies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity.Design/methodology/approachThe work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations.FindingsThe findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal.Practical implicationsThis paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank.Originality/valueThere are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.

Expansionary monetary policy and corporate investment in an emerging market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quoc Trung Tran
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Cash Holdings ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Cash Holding ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of monetary loosening on corporate investment in an emerging market. Design/methodology/approach The paper begins this study by using a dynamic model to investigate the effect of monetary loosening on corporate investment. This paper uses money supply growth as a proxy for monetary loosening, as the State Bank of Vietnam relies mainly on a quantity-based policy. Next, this paper continues to analyze whether cash holdings are able to mitigate this effect. Finally, this paper examines the effect of monetary loosening on investment smoothing and the mitigating role of cash holding. The research sample includes 4,868 from 617 firms. This paper uses different regression techniques (i.e. pooled ordinary least squares clustered by firm, fixed effects, random effects and system generalized method of moments). Findings The research findings show that money supply growth is positively related to both corporate investment and investment smoothing. The effect of monetary loosening on corporate investment is mitigated by corporate cash holding. Moreover, this paper finds that the mitigating effect of cash holdings is stronger for financially constrained firms and non-state-owned enterprises. Originality/value Prior studies only focus on corporate investment under-tightening monetary policy; however, there is no research on firm investment under monetary loosening in an emerging market.

Exploring the nonlinear effect of size on profitability: evidence from an insurance brokerage industry in an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Angelous Kotey ◽  
Richard Akomatey ◽  
Baah Aye Kusi
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Effect ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Brokerage Firms

PurposeThis study examines the possible nonlinear effect of size on stakeholder and shareholder profitability in the Ghanaian insurance brokerage industry.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a panel dataset of 64 Ghanaian insurance brokerage firms spanning 2011–2015. Static [ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effect and random effect and dynamic (two-step generalized method of moments (GMM))] estimation techniques are employed to analyze the data.FindingsThe study finds the existence of both economies and diseconomies of scale and scope theories in the Ghanaian insurance brokerage industry confirming the existence of nonlinear nexus between size and performance. This finding is consistent for both stakeholder and shareholder profit performance. Thus, the results show that size improves profitability of insurance brokerage firms, but beyond a certain threshold, the relationship turns negative as size negatively affects profitability.Practical implicationsThe research findings have implications for both policy and research; the study recommends that Ghanaian brokerage managers should understand that not all growth is good and exercise a duty of care when applying growth strategies by monitoring size effect on performance so as not to go beyond the inflection point. Further research can be done to examine this effect in other contexts, timeframes and jurisdictions.Originality/valueThis research is unique in that it employs a panel dataset consisting of 96% of insurance brokerage firms in Ghana whilst employing both static and nonstatic regression models to examine the effect of size. The research analysis adopted is robust, and the findings are significant. Also, the lack of empirical studies on the operations and dealings of auxiliary institutions such as the insurance brokerage firms adds value to this research.

The ascension of executives' tenure, corporate risk-taking and corporate performance: evidence from Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osama F. Atayah ◽  
Khakan Najaf ◽  
Ravichandran K. Subramaniam ◽  
Phaik Nie Chin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Executive Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Top Executives ◽  
Corporate Risk

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the implication of top executives’ number of years of experience (tenure) on corporate risk-taking behaviour and corporate performance in Malaysian corporations.Design/methodology/approachTo test the hypothesis efficiently, the authors have extracted the data from Bloomberg for 788 listed companies of the Malaysian Stock Exchange. The methodology entails ordinary least squares regressions, quantile regression and dynamic system generalized method of moments model.FindingsFirst, the authors show that executive management tenure has a significant negative relationship with corporate risk-taking. It means that the long-tenured executives tend to undertake less risky strategies and decisions. Second, this study reveals that the longer executive management tenure has a positive relationship with corporate performance. Third, the moderating effect of corporate risk-taking with executive tenure (Tenure dummy*Risk) has a negative relationship with the corporate performance by 1%.Practical implicationsIt implies that the appointment of experienced executive management contributes towards corporate performance directly. However, experienced management trends take less risk, which eventually results in mitigating the corporate performance. On that basis, the findings are significant in highlighting the usefulness of executive leadership term and offers insights to academics, practitioners and policymakers.Originality/valueThis paper is novel since it is unique in evaluating the executive tenure and the preferences to handle risk strategies and how that impact the firm performance.

Bank competition, government intervention and SME debt financing

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianhua Du ◽  
Chao Bian ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Government Intervention ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Competition ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the government intervention and bank competition on small and medium enterprise (SME) external debt financing in Chinese capital market. Design/methodology/approach This study uses ordinary least squares with standard errors clustered at the firm level. In addition, the authors use the dynamic system generalized method of moments to address the possible endogeneity issue in the regressions. Findings Using a sample of 908 firms from 2000 to 2010, the authors found that SMEs are more likely to access bank loans only in regions with higher level of government intervention than median government intervention. Further, the result shows that the government is motivated to help SMEs to obtain more external debt in regions where the level of bank competition is lower than the median bank competition index. Last, the authors found evidence that firms with politically connected CEOs are likely to access bank loans. Research limitations/implications This paper highlights that government intervention enables the SMEs to secure more bank loans. Second, the authors’ results imply that the government is motivated to help SMEs to obtain more external debt in regions with low level of bank competition. Originality/value This study contributes to the current literature by revealing that government intervention is the driving force alleviating SMEs’ constraints in accessing external financing. Second, this study finds the evidence to supports the argument that government has a strong motive to help SMEs to secure long-term credits for political purpose (Fan et al., 2012), when the level of bank competition is low (Berger and Udell, 2006).

Bank lending channel and banking sector efficiency: panel data of Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1291-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr ◽  
Anwar Al-Gasaymeh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Bank Efficiency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Channel

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relevance of the bank lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy and the bank efficiency in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the effectiveness of bank lending channel using generalized method of moments GMM model during the period from 1996 to 2014. Also, it uses stochastic frontier approach (SFA) to examine the bank efficiency in Egypt. Findings This study supports the relevance of the BLC using panel data. Moreover, applying SFA, this paper computes cost efficiency taking account of both time and country effects directly. The finding suggests that banks with low inflation and high GDP tend to perform more efficiently. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the study is examining one country only. Practical implications The finding signals that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should adjust interest rate in order to stabilize the bank loan supply. Social implications It is important for the CBE and Egyptian banks because it highlights the importance of BLC. Originality/value It examines one channel of monetary policy and bank efficiency in Egypt.

scholarly journals Difference in intensity of exchange rate factors in countries with targeting inflation regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
A.M. Grebenkina ◽  
◽  
A.A. Khandruev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Market Factors

The paper analyzes features of prime factors of nominal exchange rate in countries with inflation targeting regime and high cross-border financial openness. The paper aims to test the hypothesis about different strength of these factors in developed countries and emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a panel vector autoregressive model and panel data for 2010 — 1st half-year 2020 period for 9 developed countries and 10 EMEs, the paper estimates significance of factors from the side of global commodity and financial markets, as well as the side of national monetary policy. The paper finds some evidence of greater sensitivity of EMEs’ nominal exchange rate to global commodity and financial market factors and a greater sensitivity of developed countries’ nominal exchange rate to national monetary policy. The paper regards this result as an argument for EMEs’ exchange rate policy specification, considering the necessity to cope with heightened exchange rate volatility in these countries under the influence of external factors.

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

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