Modelling external debt – growth nexus: how relevant is governance?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1323-1340
Author(s):  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Nor Asmat Ismail ◽  
Abdul Rais Abdul Latiff ◽  
Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Total Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Sub Saharan

Purpose Amongst the major concerns of sub-Sahara Africa are the rising external debt and poor performances in governance. This paper aims to lend a voice to the relevance of governance on the relationship between external debt and economic growth in selected five sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Design/methodology/approach Using available data from the World Governance and Development Indicators, between 1996 and 2016, the study uses the fully-modified OLS technique after establishing the absence of unit root and existence of long-run relationship amongst the variables of the model. Findings The findings confirm a non-linear relationship between external debt and economic with a positive net effect of $5.05 increase in economic performance for a US$ rise in external debt. While the index of governance depicts a negative association with economic growth, the indicators show mixed results. The interaction effect of external debt and governance on economic performance explain that improved governance quality reduces its negative effect on economic performance by US$1.288 (with a total effect of –4.180 + 1.288*EXDBT); it equally enhances the (net) positive impact of external debt by US$1.288 (with a total effect 5.05 + 1.288*IQ). Practical implications The governments of the selected countries are, therefore, advised to seek other means of financing their expenditure while curbing financial mismanagement and its long-term impacts on growth. Also, governance infrastructures should be improved to restore both domestic and foreign investors’ confidence so that more private capitals may be attracted in lieu of excessive borrowings. Originality/value The research is the first to comprehensively examine the nexus between external debt, governance and economic growth in the selected countries, given their external debt position in SSA. This includes examining the impacts of each of the governance indicators and the comprehensive index of governance on growth. Furthermore, the study adds to the literature by examining the interaction effects of external debt and governance on economic growth of these countries. This gives both the partial and total estimates of the effects of external debt and governance on economic growth in the countries under consideration.

scholarly journals The Trade-Off Between Economic Performance and Environmental Quality: Does Financial Inclusion Asymmetrically Matter for Emerging Asian Economies?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Liu ◽  
Yuantao Xie ◽  
Muhammad Hafeez ◽  
Ahmed Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Bank Branches ◽  
Long Run

Abstract This study examines the role of financial inclusion on the environment-economic performance in the top five Asian emerging economies. The data used for empirical investigation covers the time period from 1995 to 2019. Financial inclusion is measured through bank branches, bank credit, and insurance premiums. To check long-run associations, the panel-ARDL approach has been employed for empirical analysis. The empirical evidence confirms the significant associations between financial inclusion-GDP nexus and financial inclusion-CO2 nexus. The findings show that bank branches and bank credit have a significantly positive impact on economic growth and CO2 emissions in the long-run. However, insurance premium has no impact on economic growth but it exerts a significant negative impact on carbon emissions in the long-run. Furthermore, energy consumption is highly sensitive to economic growth and carbon emissions. The study delivers imperative points for pollution eradication and attaining sustained economic growth. There is a need for government-level efforts to align the targets of financial inclusion with economic growth and environmental policies.

Does transportation infrastructure impact economic growth in India?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu Nenavath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Purpose This paper aims to show a long run and causal association between economic growth and transport infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors use ARDL models through the period 1990 – 2020 to investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in India. Findings The infrastructure has a positive impact on economic growth in India for the long run. Moreover, Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional relationship between transport infrastructure to economic development. Stimulatingly, the paper highlights the effect of air infrastructure statistically insignificant on economic growth in the long and short-run period. Originality/value The original outcome from the study delivers an inclusive depiction of determinants of economic growth from transport infrastructure in India, and these findings will help the policymakers to frame policies to improve the transport infrastructure. Hence, it is proposed that the government of Indian should focus more to upsurge the transport infrastructure for higher economic development.

scholarly journals On the restricted form of energy-growth nexus: a global level VECM approach and the historical structural breaks

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1205-1220
Author(s):  
Luís Miguel Marques ◽  
José Alberto Fuinhas ◽  
António Cardoso Marques
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Growth ◽  
Restricted Form ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on global energy consumption using the economic growth nexus, the prevalent energy hypothesis at a global level and the impact of the main historical events assessed for the period from 1965 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach Given the confirmed presence of endogeneity and cointegration between energy consumption and economic growth, a vector error correction with structural dummies model was used. Furthermore, the impulse-response functions and variance decomposition were computed to evaluate the variables’ dynamics. Findings Bi-directional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth was found, both in the short and long-run, supporting the feedback hypothesis. It is proved that the 2008 crisis impacted on the global energy–growth nexus. Furthermore, there is evidence of the impact of the 1990s oil price shock on the nexus. Innovations in energy consumption have a positive impact on economic growth; however, this impact tends to be null in the long run. Practical implications The results suggest that at a global level, any energy policy should be carefully designed in order not to hamper economic growth. Countries should not remain indifferent to the policies that other countries might follow. Very few historical crises impacted on the global energy–growth nexus. Originality/value This paper offers a different approach to the study of the energy–growth nexus. The energy–growth nexus is analysed in the major macroeconomic aggregate. Global variables reveal their relevance as a benchmark in the energy–growth nexus. Furthermore, this paper arrives at some conclusions about how historical crises impact on global relationships.

The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth in Botswana

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kafayat Amusa ◽  
Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana over the period 1985‒2016. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach in investigating the nexus. The study makes the argument that the effectiveness of public spending should be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also by the type of the expenditure. The empirical findings showed that aggregate expenditure has a negative short-run and positive long-run effect on economic growth. When expenditure is disaggregated, both forms of expenditures have a positive short-run effect on economic growth, whereas only a long-run positive impact of recurrent expenditure is observed. The study suggests the need to prioritize scarce resources in productive recurrent and development spending that enables increased productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis is carried out on both an aggregate and disaggregated level. Government spending is divided into recurrent and development expenditures. Findings This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis hinged on both the aggregate and disaggregated levels. The results of the aggregate analysis suggest that total public expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, its impact becomes positive over the long run. On disaggregating government spending, the results show that both recurrent and development expenditures have a significant positive short-run impact on growth; however, in the long run, the significant positive impact is only observed for recurrent expenditure. Practical implications The results provide evidence of the diverse effects of government expenditure in the country. In the period under investigation, 73 percent of total government expenditure in Botswana was recurrent in nature, whereas 23 percent was related to development. From the results, it can be observed that although the recurrent expenditure has contributed to increased growth and must be encouraged, it is also pertinent for the Botswana Government to endeavor to place more emphasis on productive development expenditure in order to enhance short- and long-term growth. Further, there is a need to strengthen the growth-enhancing structures and to prioritize the scarce economic resources toward productive spending and ensuring continued proper governance over such expenditures. Originality/value The study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government spending in a small open, resource-reliant middle-income SSA economy and argues that the effectiveness of public spending must be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also on the type or composition of the expenditure. The study contributes to the scant empirical literature on Botswana by employing the ARDL approach to cointegration technique in estimating the long- and short-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth between 1985 and 2016.

Interactive effects of human capital in finance–economic growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muazu Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactive effect of human capital in financial development–economic growth nexus. Relative to the quantity-based measure of enrolment rates, the main aim was to determine how quality of human capital proxied by pupil–teacher ratio influences the relationship between domestic financial sector development and overall economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Data are obtained from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for 29 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1980–2014. The analyses were conducted using the system generalised method of moments within the endogenous growth framework while controlling for country-specific and time effects. The author also follows Papke and Wooldridge procedure in examining the long-run estimates of the variables of interest. Findings The key finding is that, while both human capital and financial development unconditionally promotes growth in both the short and long run, results from the interactive terms suggest that, irrespective of the measure of finance, financial sector development largely spurs growth on the back of quality human capital. This finding is also confirmed by the marginal and net effects where the interactive effect of pupil–teacher ratio and indicators of finance are consistently huge relative to the enrolment. Statistically, the results are robust to model specification. Practical implications While it is laudable for SSA countries to increase access to education, it is equally more crucial to increase the supply of teachers at the same time improving on the limited teaching and learning materials. Indeed, there are efforts to develop rather low levels of the financial sector owing to its unconditional growth effects. Beyond the direct benefit of finance, however, higher growth effect of finance is conditioned on the quality level of human capital. The outcome of this study should therefore reignite the recognition of the complementarity role of human capital and finance in economic growth process. Originality/value The study makes significant contributions to existing finance–growth literature in so many ways: first, the auhor extend the literature by empirically examining how different measures of human capital shape the finance–economic growth nexus. Through this the author is able to bring a different perspective in the literature highlighting the role of countries’ human capital stock in mediating the impact of financial deepening on economic growth. Second, the author makes a more systematic attempt to evaluate the relative importance of finance and human capital in growth process while controlling for several ancillary variables.

scholarly journals Do financial systems spur economic growth in the USA? An empirical investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-185
Author(s):  
Sheilla Nyasha ◽  
N.M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa

In this paper, we use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine the dynamic impact of both bank-based financial development and market-based financial development on economic growth in the United States of America (USA) during the period 1980 to 2012. In order to adequately capture the depth and width of the USA?s financial system, we used both bank-based and marketbased financial development indices as proxies for bank-based and market-based financial systems. These indices were constructed from a number of bank- and market-based financial development indicators, using the method of means-removed average. Our empirical results reveal that both bank-based and market-based financial development have a positive impact on economic growth in the USA. These results apply irrespective of whether the regression analysis is conducted in the long run or in the short run. We, therefore, recommend that both pro-bank-based and pro-market-based financial sector development policies should be pursued in the USA - in order to bolster real sector growth and economic development.

Electric Power Transmission, Distribution Losses, and Economic Growth in Ghana

2020 ◽  
pp. 450-467
Author(s):  
Samuel Adams ◽  
Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu ◽  
Richmond Odartey Lamptey
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Power Transmission ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect

This study examined the effect of electric power transmission and distribution losses (ETL) on economic growth over the period of 1971 to 2012 in Ghana. Using bounds testing approach to cointegration and Bai-Perron test in ordinary least squares framework, we find long-run relationship between ETL, gross capital formation, inflation, trade openness and economic growth. Secondly, while ETL do not have robust impact on economic growth, trade openness exerts a positive impact on economic growth in the long-run. Inflation and gross capital formation, however, have mixed relationships with economic growth. Furthermore, ETL yield a threshold value of 2.07. Finally, controlling for the urban population reveals that ETL moderates the relationship between urbanization and economic growth; higher ETL associates with an increasing negative effect on GDP per capita.

scholarly journals The nexus between external debt, corruption and economic growth: evidence from five SSA countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of external debt and corruption on economic growth in the selected five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, from 1990 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed to test for stationarity of the series and the long-run relationship, respectively. Fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS techniques are also employed to examine the long-run coefficients of the variables of the model, as well as panel Granger causality test, in order to examine the direction of causality among the variables. Findings The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between external debt and economic growth, as well as a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The findings also indicate a positive relationship between corruption and economic growth, as well as a uni-directional causality running from economic growth through corruption. Research limitations/implications The study recommends that the governments of the selected countries should address the menace of rising external debt through the adoption of other sources of capital for investment. Such include more openness of the economy for more capital, by easing restrictions on genuine imports and exports of valuable goods and services. It also suggests that the issue of corruption be tackled head-on, by such penalties that tend to make corruption less attractive. Originality/value While the relationship between economic growth and external debt, on the one hand, and corruption and economic growth, on the other hand, have received considerable attentions, the trio of external debt, corruption and economic growth have not been found combined in a model, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Also, the countries under consideration, who jointly account for about 47 percent of the entire SSA countries’ stock of external debt, have not been jointly found in any recent panel studies involving the selected variables.

Trade openness, financial liberalization and economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq ◽  
Nor Aznin Abu Bakar ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effects of financial liberalization and trade openness on the economic growth of two countries, namely, Pakistan and India for the period 1985-2014. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag technique, which allows mixed order of integration. In addition, it uses the principal component method to create an index for financial liberalization to examine how it affects the economic growth of the selected countries. Findings The findings reveal that in the short and long run, trade openness has positive effect on the Pakistan’s economic growth while the financial liberalization has positive impact only in the long run. In the case of India, both financial liberalization and trade openness positively and significantly influence the economic growth in the short and long run. Practical implications By comparing the results of both countries, trade openness and financial liberalization increase the economic growth of India more than that of Pakistan. These results suggest that Pakistan should consider appropriate positive policies regarding financial liberalization and trade openness to achieve high and stable economic growth in the future. Originality/value This study creates financial liberalization index by using the principal component analysis method to explain the role of financial liberalization in the economic growth of Pakistan and India. In addition, it makes comparison of the results based on which country benefits most from the liberalization of trade and financial sectors. Only very few studies have examined these countries, yet their results have remained inconclusive as well.

scholarly journals The asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth: new evidence from Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesbah Fathy Sharaf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeWithin a multivariate framework, this study examines the asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a vector error-correction model to estimate the short- and long-run parameters of equilibrium dynamics. A multiple structural breaks model is estimated to test nonlinearity in the relationship between external debt and economic growth.FindingsResults of the NARDL model show a robust statistically significant negative long-run impact on economic growth stemming from both positive and negative external-debt-induced shocks. In terms of magnitude, on the one hand, the impact of external-debt-induced negative shocks exceeds that of the positive. In the short and long run, on the other hand, the growth impact of external debt in Egypt is symmetric. There is also support for the nonlinearity hypothesis in which a negative impact on growth of external debt obtains once the threshold level of external debt-to-GDP ratio equals or exceeds 96.7%.Practical implicationsIdentifying the threshold level after which external debt becomes harmful to economic growth would help inform policymakers in Egypt about maximum external debt levels that can be sustained without impairing economic growth.Originality/valueThe current study makes a substantial contribution to the extant literature on the debt-growth tradeoffs. It breaks ground by being the first tract that examines, using a NARDL model, asymmetry and nonlinearity of debt-growth tradeoffs in Egypt.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document