Macroeconomic uncertainty and “global” economic performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 426-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Florence Ellis

Purpose This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the Chinese economies. This is done by examining how economic activities within key economies around the world react to, or are impacted by, modeled adverse macroeconomic condition emanating from the Chinese and the US economies. Design/methodology/approach To verify potential paradigm shift in how external macroeconomic uncertainty impacts “global” industrial productivity and overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth within selected economies, this study opts for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. Adoption of this method has been influenced by the potential for correlated error terms between modeled adverse macroeconomic condition, industrial productivity and GDP growth variables being tested in a two-equation system. Findings Empirical results based on SUR analysis find no evidence of this potential paradigm shift within the time frame examined in the study. Estimated results suggest that notwithstanding the recent growth surge of the Chinese economy, macroeconomic happenings within the US economy still exert significantly more influence on key economies around the world. For instance, this study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the US economy significantly constrains both industrial productivity and overall GDP growth within most of the economies tested, whereas the same condition emanating from the Chinese economy seems to rather have a weak positive impact on the same macroeconomic variables. Research limitations/implications Research results are strictly limited to the focus time frame for this study; it is likely that expanded data involving more years beyond what was analyzed in this study could yield different results. Originality/value This study is an original research based on data from a reputable US federal institution.

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


2010 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 3.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.8 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 9.6 per cent this year and 5.7 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 9.8 per cent in 2010 and 9 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 2.7 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.2 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


Significance Divided government provides scope for volatility at a perilous time for the pandemic-ravaged US economy, but markets are putting greater weight on the prospect of a vaccine accelerating the global recovery. Tech stocks have fallen as investors take their gains and opt for 'reflation trades' predicated on a recovery in sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Impacts Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook make up over 20% of the US stock market; firm fundamentals guard against a sharp sell-off. China’s renminbi has risen to the highest to the dollar since the US-China tariff battle ramped up in early 2018; more strength is likely. China’s export orders grew only marginally in October and import growth slowed, signposting that the world trade recovery could plateau.


Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2020. Significance Consumer spending is driving GDP growth this year and extending the longest expansion in US history. GDP growth will ease in the fourth quarter of 2019 but remains on track for 2.2-2.3% growth for the full year. Manufacturing activity is contracting, but other sectors are growing solidly and the labour market remains tight. This paradoxical performance raises the question of whether and how the manufacturing weakness might spread -- in particular, the extent to which it could drag on the rest of the economy, or even pull it into recession.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Ayodele Alade

Purpose This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects traditionally presumed to emanate from dominant economies toward trading partners. Design/methodology/approach The study used the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to bi-variate causality analysis. Findings This study verified the existence of the economic contagion phenomenon; Estimated empirical evidence failed to fully support the presumption that such contagion effects mostly emanates from dominant economies toward trading partners, all things being equal. For instance, although this study found significant economic contagion effects emanating from the US economy toward the Chinese economy, the authors also detected six different uni-directional causal interactions with the direction of causality emanating from trading partners toward the US economy. Originality/value The uniqueness of this study stems not from its verification of the economic contagion phenomenon using equity market-related economic uncertainty as the potential contagion. This study fills a gap in the present literature by focusing on the happenings in the equity market as the potential candidate of the economic contagion phenomenon between a dominant economy and its key trading partners.


2010 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 5.0 per cent in 2010 and 4.4 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 14.2 per cent this year and 8.8 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 11.6 per cent in 2010 and 8.3 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 3.3 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2010 and 3.0 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.3 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2017. Significance In recent years, the United States has become accustomed to sub-par 2% GDP growth and sustained low inflation. However, following disappointing performance in 2016, the US economy is poised for a moderate rebound in growth in 2017.


Subject Global reserves outlook. Significance The growth of the foreign-exchange reserves of emerging and developing economies was a closely followed topic in international finance and policymaking circles in the 2000s. A new strand of academic literature suggests it might be in for a renaissance. Impacts The world will soon take more notice of the worsening US net external debt load. Paradoxically, the US economy generates these liabilities in part because the world demands them. US dollar depreciation will put domestic political pressure on large dollar reserve holders.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Irshad Younas ◽  
Mahvesh Khan ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Purpose The purpose of the study is to explore the misconception that in developed countries, macroeconomic performance lead to sustainable firms or improves stakeholder well-being. The results may be the opposite or even worse. Design/methodology/approach This study examined this misconception using balanced panel data from 1,122 firms from different sectors of the US economy and data on macroeconomic performance from the World Bank. Findings The results of the one-step generalised method of moments indicate that most macroeconomic performance indicators had significant and negative impacts on firm sustainability and stakeholder well-being. Practical implications From a societal perspective, the results illustrate that the fruits of macroeconomic performance of the US economy do not reach stakeholders through firms’ sustainability. Thus, linking the economy’s macroeconomic performance with firm sustainability is vital for sustainably uplifting society and for stakeholder well-being. Originality/value From a policy perspective, this study reveals that the greater focus on macroeconomic performance in the USA over the past decades has resulted in lower firm sustainability because of the malfunctioning of social, economic, environmental and governance factors. This has negatively influenced stakeholder well-being in the country.


2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (05) ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Tim Sprinkle

This article discusses reasons for various American startup companies to shift abroad for funding and production, and their impact on the American business scenarios. Founders are accepting funding from overseas investors, setting up supply chains in different parts of the world, servicing customers internationally, and even selling their businesses to foreign government-backed funds. Although the idea of losing American inventions and technologies to international investors and buyers is not generally good for public relations, the current landscape of global startup development has winners on both sides, and overseas involvement in US companies does not necessarily mean a net loss domestically. The US government must find a way to move the US economy forward, preventing predatory pricing and mercantilist practices by exporters while at the same time reaping the international flow of ideas and funds that power innovation. The experts believe that ignoring the rest of the world would not only limit the growth potential of US startups, but over time would reduce America’s global leadership in innovation.


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