Search for quality assets drives world reserves

Subject Global reserves outlook. Significance The growth of the foreign-exchange reserves of emerging and developing economies was a closely followed topic in international finance and policymaking circles in the 2000s. A new strand of academic literature suggests it might be in for a renaissance. Impacts The world will soon take more notice of the worsening US net external debt load. Paradoxically, the US economy generates these liabilities in part because the world demands them. US dollar depreciation will put domestic political pressure on large dollar reserve holders.

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Haiping Qiu ◽  
Min Zhao

Purpose The world currency is endowed with two inherent contradictions, namely, the general contradiction of all currencies and the special contradiction between the quality and quantity of the world currency. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In the wake of the Second World War, the USA, with its strong economic and military strength, established an international monetary system centered on the US dollar (USD). This gave USD the status of “world currency” and bounded it to the US imperialist hegemony with mutual integration and interaction, making it possible for USD capital to conduct international exploitation and wealth plundering extensively around the world. Findings The contradiction between the capital logic and the power logic, which is inherent in capital accumulation models of the new imperialism, also indicates the inevitable decline of USD. Originality/value This constitutes an important feature of the new imperialism. However, as a sovereign currency, USD has inextricable and inherent contradictions while exercising its function as the world currency.


Author(s):  
O. V. Zhuravliov ◽  
О. М. Simachova

The US economy is one of the richest and most diversified economies in the world and keeps its leadership in the global economy for the past 100 years. The United States is a global leader in computer technology, pharmaceuticals and the manufacture of medical, aerospace and military equipment. And although services make up about 80% of GDP, the US remains the second largest producer of industrial goods in the world and is a leader in research and development. President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016, promising a big gap with his predecessor’s regulatory, tax and trade policies. Therefore, the current socio-economic status of the USA and the possible ways of its development in the future are interesting for studying the impact on other economies, in particular, on the Ukrainian economy and the search for new and optimal ways of developing relations between the United States and Ukraine. Key macroeconomic indicators of the US economy in 2011–2018 are analyzed, demonstrating the influence of Donald Tramp’s new policy on changes in the indicators of the economy, the labor market, trade, etc., as well as possible ways of development in the coming years. The review of key macroeconomic indicators gives grounds for classifying the American economy as healthy one. Rates of GDP growth will remain in the range of 2 to 3%. These rates of growth in the world’s largest economy are callable to ensure a substantial increase in the global activity. But uncertainties in the politics may hinder global growth and have clearly negative impact on the investment growth in developed and developing economies.


Significance Divided government provides scope for volatility at a perilous time for the pandemic-ravaged US economy, but markets are putting greater weight on the prospect of a vaccine accelerating the global recovery. Tech stocks have fallen as investors take their gains and opt for 'reflation trades' predicated on a recovery in sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Impacts Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook make up over 20% of the US stock market; firm fundamentals guard against a sharp sell-off. China’s renminbi has risen to the highest to the dollar since the US-China tariff battle ramped up in early 2018; more strength is likely. China’s export orders grew only marginally in October and import growth slowed, signposting that the world trade recovery could plateau.


2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-140
Author(s):  
Marcelo Milan

This paper discusses the US dollar hegemony in the world economy. The discussion is carried out in three steps. First, the paper analyses the evolution of the US dollar in the world economy, emphasizing its resilience in the context of frequent financial crises. Second, the work discusses and compares the perspectives that trust the US dollar’s continuing role as an international reserve to those that assume a likely decline of both the dollar and the US economy after the 2007 financial crash. Finally, the article seeks to raise a few potential consequences of the continuing hegemony or declining of the dollar for the peripheral countries.


Significance The combination of more COVID-19 cases in parts of the United States and unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus is straining the dollar. In parallel, the euro is benefiting from a push for closer euro-area integration. Nevertheless, the US MSCI equity index has risen by 6.3% this year, with the tech sub-index gaining 25%. Europe’s MSCI equity index is down 7.4%. Impacts ‘Big Tech’ accounts for 40% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 equity index and looks set to continue powering the equity rally. The world stock of negative-yielding sovereign and corporate bonds has almost doubled from end-February to over USD15tn; it may rise more. The euro reached its highest level to the dollar in over two years this month; Europe’s stimulus package should help it maintain momentum. Dollars make up nearly two-thirds of the world stock of foreign exchange reserves; this share will fall very gradually, over years.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 426-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Florence Ellis

Purpose This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the Chinese economies. This is done by examining how economic activities within key economies around the world react to, or are impacted by, modeled adverse macroeconomic condition emanating from the Chinese and the US economies. Design/methodology/approach To verify potential paradigm shift in how external macroeconomic uncertainty impacts “global” industrial productivity and overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth within selected economies, this study opts for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. Adoption of this method has been influenced by the potential for correlated error terms between modeled adverse macroeconomic condition, industrial productivity and GDP growth variables being tested in a two-equation system. Findings Empirical results based on SUR analysis find no evidence of this potential paradigm shift within the time frame examined in the study. Estimated results suggest that notwithstanding the recent growth surge of the Chinese economy, macroeconomic happenings within the US economy still exert significantly more influence on key economies around the world. For instance, this study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the US economy significantly constrains both industrial productivity and overall GDP growth within most of the economies tested, whereas the same condition emanating from the Chinese economy seems to rather have a weak positive impact on the same macroeconomic variables. Research limitations/implications Research results are strictly limited to the focus time frame for this study; it is likely that expanded data involving more years beyond what was analyzed in this study could yield different results. Originality/value This study is an original research based on data from a reputable US federal institution.


2003 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 9-16

The outlook for world growth this year has deteriorated since April, due to a sharp contraction in world trade in the first quarter of the year and failure to sustain the revival in private sector investment seen in the fourth quarter of 2002. We have as a consequence revised our projections for world growth this year down by ¼ percentage point. This reflects sharp downward revisions of ½–¾ percentage points in the Euro Area and Canada, both of whose exchange rates have continued to appreciate in effective terms, while the outlook for the US and Japan is broadly unchanged. Growth in Japan and the Euro Area stagnated in the first half of 2003, with recessions in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria appearing likely. The US and Canada, on the other hand, continued to expand, albeit more slowly than in the second half of 2002. Following two years of exceptional weakness, Latin American growth has started to revive, although Venezuela is still suffering from the 2 month stoppage in the oil industry earlier this year and Argentina has lost competitiveness due to a strong appreciation against the dollar. Growth has slowed in several Asian economies, notably South Korea, but China continues to expand rapidly, spurred by the competitiveness impact of the dollar depreciation and infrastructure preparations for the 2008 Olympics. This has helped sustain export growth from the rest of Asia despite the more widespread slowdown in world trade.


2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Irshad Younas ◽  
Mahvesh Khan ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Purpose The purpose of the study is to explore the misconception that in developed countries, macroeconomic performance lead to sustainable firms or improves stakeholder well-being. The results may be the opposite or even worse. Design/methodology/approach This study examined this misconception using balanced panel data from 1,122 firms from different sectors of the US economy and data on macroeconomic performance from the World Bank. Findings The results of the one-step generalised method of moments indicate that most macroeconomic performance indicators had significant and negative impacts on firm sustainability and stakeholder well-being. Practical implications From a societal perspective, the results illustrate that the fruits of macroeconomic performance of the US economy do not reach stakeholders through firms’ sustainability. Thus, linking the economy’s macroeconomic performance with firm sustainability is vital for sustainably uplifting society and for stakeholder well-being. Originality/value From a policy perspective, this study reveals that the greater focus on macroeconomic performance in the USA over the past decades has resulted in lower firm sustainability because of the malfunctioning of social, economic, environmental and governance factors. This has negatively influenced stakeholder well-being in the country.


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