Equity market-related economic uncertainty and the “economic contagion phenomenon”

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Ayodele Alade
Keyword(s):  
Equity Market ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Potential Candidate ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners

Purpose This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects traditionally presumed to emanate from dominant economies toward trading partners. Design/methodology/approach The study used the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to bi-variate causality analysis. Findings This study verified the existence of the economic contagion phenomenon; Estimated empirical evidence failed to fully support the presumption that such contagion effects mostly emanates from dominant economies toward trading partners, all things being equal. For instance, although this study found significant economic contagion effects emanating from the US economy toward the Chinese economy, the authors also detected six different uni-directional causal interactions with the direction of causality emanating from trading partners toward the US economy. Originality/value The uniqueness of this study stems not from its verification of the economic contagion phenomenon using equity market-related economic uncertainty as the potential contagion. This study fills a gap in the present literature by focusing on the happenings in the equity market as the potential candidate of the economic contagion phenomenon between a dominant economy and its key trading partners.

Lenovo’s successful acquisition of the IBM PC Division

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Tablet Computers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Traditional Manufacturing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze Lenovo’s successful acquisition of IBM’s PC division using Ghemawat’s (2001) CAGE framework. It was an acquisition that was so full of symbols that it is difficult to know where to begin. Lenovo’s purchase of IBM in 2005 was first seen as a sign of the rapid growth and expansion of the Chinese economy and its transformation away from the traditional manufacturing base to more high-tech areas. For doomsday merchants in the land of Uncle Sam, it foretold the end of the world domination of the US economy. Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a case study. Findings Despite a considerable number of skeptics at the time, Lenovo was clearly up to the task. Such was the success of the acquisition that by 2015, Lenovo could claim to have grown into the world’s number 1 PC maker, number 3 smartphone manufacturer and number 3 in the production of tablet computers. Indeed, by 2014, the firm had enough confidence to add the IBM server business to its portfolio. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and “global” economic performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 426-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Florence Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Industrial Productivity

Purpose This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the Chinese economies. This is done by examining how economic activities within key economies around the world react to, or are impacted by, modeled adverse macroeconomic condition emanating from the Chinese and the US economies. Design/methodology/approach To verify potential paradigm shift in how external macroeconomic uncertainty impacts “global” industrial productivity and overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth within selected economies, this study opts for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. Adoption of this method has been influenced by the potential for correlated error terms between modeled adverse macroeconomic condition, industrial productivity and GDP growth variables being tested in a two-equation system. Findings Empirical results based on SUR analysis find no evidence of this potential paradigm shift within the time frame examined in the study. Estimated results suggest that notwithstanding the recent growth surge of the Chinese economy, macroeconomic happenings within the US economy still exert significantly more influence on key economies around the world. For instance, this study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the US economy significantly constrains both industrial productivity and overall GDP growth within most of the economies tested, whereas the same condition emanating from the Chinese economy seems to rather have a weak positive impact on the same macroeconomic variables. Research limitations/implications Research results are strictly limited to the focus time frame for this study; it is likely that expanded data involving more years beyond what was analyzed in this study could yield different results. Originality/value This study is an original research based on data from a reputable US federal institution.

Macroeconomic conditions are only an illusion, not the solution, to firm sustainability: unveiling the new dimension of stakeholder well-being

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Irshad Younas ◽  
Mahvesh Khan ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The One

Purpose The purpose of the study is to explore the misconception that in developed countries, macroeconomic performance lead to sustainable firms or improves stakeholder well-being. The results may be the opposite or even worse. Design/methodology/approach This study examined this misconception using balanced panel data from 1,122 firms from different sectors of the US economy and data on macroeconomic performance from the World Bank. Findings The results of the one-step generalised method of moments indicate that most macroeconomic performance indicators had significant and negative impacts on firm sustainability and stakeholder well-being. Practical implications From a societal perspective, the results illustrate that the fruits of macroeconomic performance of the US economy do not reach stakeholders through firms’ sustainability. Thus, linking the economy’s macroeconomic performance with firm sustainability is vital for sustainably uplifting society and for stakeholder well-being. Originality/value From a policy perspective, this study reveals that the greater focus on macroeconomic performance in the USA over the past decades has resulted in lower firm sustainability because of the malfunctioning of social, economic, environmental and governance factors. This has negatively influenced stakeholder well-being in the country.

Modelling sectoral spillovers in the USA (1992–2015)

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-595
Author(s):  
Konstantinos N. Konstantakis ◽  
Panayotis G. Michaelides ◽  
Theofanis Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodoros Daglis
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research paper uses a novel methodological approach to investigate the spillover effects among the key sectors of the US economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper links the US sectors via a node theoretic scheme based on a general equilibrium framework, whereas it estimates the general equilibrium equation as a Global Vector Autoregressive process, taking into consideration the potential existence of dominant units.FindingsBased on our findings, the dominant sector in the US economy, for the period 1992–2015, is the sector of information technology, finance and communications, a fact that gives credence to the view that the US economy is a service-driven economy. In addition, the US economy seems to benefit by the increased labour mobility across knowledge-intensive sectors, thus avoiding the ‘employment trap’ which in turn enabled the US economy to overcome the financial crisis of 2007.Originality/valueFirstly, the paper models by means of a network approach which is based on a general equilibrium framework, the linkages between the US sectors while treating the sector of information, technology, communications and finance as dominant, as dictated by its degree of centrality in the network structure. Secondly, the paper offers a robustness analysis regarding both the existence and the identification of dominant sectors (nodes) in the US economy. Thirdly, the paper studies a wide period, namely 1992–2015, fully capturing the recent global recession, while acknowledging the impact of the global crisis through the introduction of the relevant exogenous dummy variables; Lastly and most importantly, it is the first study to apply the GVAR approach in a network general equilibrium framework at the sectoral level.

US protectionism would raise trade costs worldwide

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Commerce Department ◽  
Firing Line

Subject Exposure to US final demand. Significance The Commerce Department reported on March 7 that the US goods trade deficit widened to 69.7 billion dollars in January after a five-year high of 4% of GDP last year. The new administration has threatened to build a wall along the Mexican border, impose punitive tariffs on countries it runs a goods deficit with and label China a currency manipulator. Other countries also rely on US demand -- through goods and services trade, investment and remittances. Impacts In the unlikely event that Trump follows through on all his most extreme trade threats, the world could plunge into recession. Evidence does not support the new administration's view that free trade has damaged the US economy and the fortunes of its workforce. The WTO is reviewing several cases the previous US administration began against China -- extreme escalation could trigger US WTO withdrawal. Germany is the only G7 country that the United States runs both a goods and services trade deficit with, placing it in the firing line.

US consumption may start to pick up

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Trust Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
The Us

Significance One of the conundrums of the US economy that will influence the Federal Reserve's timing of an interest rate rise (currently projected for September) is where the savings from low energy prices have gone. Oil prices have dropped sharply since September 2014, from 97 dollars per barrel for West Texas Intermediate in June 2014 to 60 dollars per barrel today. Yet US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) only grew by 2.7%, well below the rate of growth of personal income, 4.1%. Impacts Greater spending on petrol will help the Highway Trust Fund slightly, but not before a new funding package is due by July 31. Low oil prices will outweigh consumer savings in such producing states as Texas and North Dakota. Greater consumer spending will adversely affect the US trade balance, as imports will rise due to the strong dollar.

Prospects for the US economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Banking Committee ◽  
Second World

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2018. Significance In 2018, US GDP should continue growing at the 2017 pace of 2.0-2.5%, and 0.2-0.3% higher if Congress can pass a tax cut. Incoming Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell yesterday gave his first testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, vowing continuity and stability in monetary policy. US economic activity has been expanding for 100 months, the third-longest expansion since 1854 and almost twice the post-Second World War average of 58 months.

Biden will wield expert US foreign policy team

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
African American ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Rights ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Career ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Significance If confirmed by the Senate, Austin will be the first African-American in that post. His selection is strongly supported by minority rights groups, partly because his military career immunises him from any claims of tokenism. This comes as Biden is announcing his wider national security team. Impacts It will be far easier to confirm Biden nominees if the Democrats hold the Senate. Biden’s attention will be arrested by COVID-19 and the US economy. Biden will increase the focus on non-traditional security threats including climate change and disease.

US rates rift will fuel financial market volatility

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Financial markets outlook. Significance The decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18 to lower its main policy rate while not assuring investors that it will continue to loosen monetary policy is exposing divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and between the Fed and bond markets. The ‘hawkish cut’ came with three dissensions, reflecting the disconnect between the resilient US economy and the deterioration in the global growth outlook. Impacts Cautious investor optimism that a US-China trade truce will be struck is fuelling US equity gains, but a substantial deal seems unlikely. The Brent oil price fell back within days following the drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, but more short spikes are possible. Almost one-third of investment-grade government and corporate bonds are negative yielding; those with zero lifetime coupon are riskiest.

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