Default risk modelling using macroeconomic variables

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 270-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khushbu Agrawal ◽  
Yogesh Maheshwari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Multiple Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment

Purpose – This paper aims to find out significant macroeconomic variables, incorporated as sensitivity variables (macroeconomic sensitivities), affecting financial distress for a sample of listed Indian firms. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a matched pair sample of defaulting and non-defaulting listed Indian firms. It uses two alternative statistical techniques, viz., logistic regression and multiple discriminant analysis. The macroeconomic sensitivities are estimated by regressing the monthly stock return of the individual firm on the monthly changes in each macroeconomic variable. Findings – Sensitivity to changes in the stock market (stock market sensitivity) and sensitivity to changes in inflation [Consumer Price Index (CPI) sensitivity] have a significant impact on the default probability of a firm. Stock market sensitivity has a significant positive relationship with the probability of default, and CPI sensitivity has a significant negative relationship with the probability of default. Originality/value – The study links the developments in the external environment to the firm’s susceptibility to default. Furthermore, it highlights the significance of sensitivity of a firm to uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and its impact on default risk. This establishes the fact that each firm is uniquely affected by the changes in the overall macroeconomic environment. The findings could be valuable to lenders such as banks and financial institutions, investors and policymakers.

Predicting financial distress: revisiting the option-based model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khushbu Agrawal ◽  
Yogesh Maheshwari
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Multiple Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Merton Model ◽  
Distance To Default ◽  
Larger Sample

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance of the Merton distance-to-default (DD) in predicting defaults for a sample of listed Indian firms. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a matched pair sample of defaulting and non-defaulting listed Indian firms. It employs two alternative statistical techniques, namely, logistic regression and multiple discriminant analysis. Findings – The option-based DD is found to be statistically significant in predicting defaults and has a significantly negative relationship with the probability of default. The DD retains its significance even after the addition of Altman’s Z-score. This further establishes its robustness as a significant predictor of default. Originality/value – The study re-establishes the utility of the Merton model in India using a simplified version of the Merton model that can be easily operationalized by practitioners, reasonably larger sample size and is done in a more recent period covering the post global financial crisis period. The findings could be valuable to banks, financial institutions, investors and managers.

Risk assessment of the Egyptian stock market in the wake of the Arab Spring

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. F. Omran
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment ◽  
Total Market

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the Egyptian stock market and its macroeconomic environment in the wake of the Arab Spring. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines whether the averages of the EGX30 index price changes in addition to key macroeconomic variables are statistically significant pre and post Arab Spring. Findings – High inflation in the period up to the Arab Spring was a major contributing factor for the uprising. The solutions for the EGX30 index troubles are political and macroeconomic. Originality/value – The variables examined pre and post Arab Spring are EGX30 returns, EGX30 total market value, US$ reserves kept at the Egyptian Central Bank, US$ to Egyptian pounds exchange, and inflation.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

Stock market development and income inequality

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios Tsagkanos
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Indirect Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper, in contrast to other studies, is to examine an indirect relationship in terms of the effect of income inequality with stock market development in countries South of the Euro-zone during the period 2002-2013. Design/methodology/approach The author adopts a new econometric method, the Improved Augmented Regression Method, to obtain bias-reduced and stationary-corrected estimators. Findings The results reveal a negative relationship that puts into doubt the recovery of growth. Originality/value The new econometric methodology leads to a novel suggested policy on the need for reforms adopting a low-income tax rate system and reinforcement of export-oriented productivity. This conclusion is strengthened by the respective relationship in USA.

Does macroeconomic uncertainty really matter in predicting stock market behavior? A comparative study on China and USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.Design/methodology/approachEmpirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.FindingsThe empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.Originality/valueThis study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

scholarly journals The relationship between debt and a firm’s performance: the impact of institutional factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1272-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Forte ◽  
José Miguel Tavares
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on the relationship between debt and firms’ performance, by focusing on the influence of the institutional framework on this relationship and on the role of macroeconomic variables in explaining performance. Design/methodology/approach The present work is based on a large sample of 48,840 manufacturing firms from nine European countries covering the 2008–2013 period and uses a fixed effects model. Findings Results show that the impact of debt on a firm’s performance depends on the measure of debt (short-term debt positively affects a firm’s performance, whereas long-term debt presents a negative relationship) and that the institutional framework is indeed affecting the relationship between debt and a firm’s performance: the positive effect of debt on a firm’s performance tends to be higher the greater the “efficiency of the legal system” and the greater the “credit market regulation.” Macroeconomic variables also play a key role in explaining performance. Originality/value Unlike most of the existing studies, which focus only on the relationship between debt and firms’ performance in a single country, the present work uses a sample of firms from nine countries with the purpose of filling a research gap and bringing new empirical evidence to this research area.

scholarly journals The nexus between stock market index and apartment and villa prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Öhman ◽  
Darush Yazdanfar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger causal link between the stock market index and housing prices in terms of apartment and villa prices. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from September 2005 to October 2013 on apartment prices, villa prices, the stock market index, mortgage rates and the consumer price index were used. Statistical methods were applied to explore the long-run co-integration and Granger causal link between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices in Sweden. Findings The results indicate that the stock market index and housing prices are co-integrated and that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. According to the Granger causality tests, bidirectional relationships exist between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices, respectively, supporting the wealth and credit-price effects. Moreover, variations in apartment and villa prices are primarily caused by endogenous shocks. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, this study represents a first analysis of the causal nexus between the stock market and the housing market in terms of apartment and villa prices in the Swedish context using a vector error-correction model to analyze monthly data.

scholarly journals DO OIL PRICE SHOCK, AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET: A STUDY OF THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1234-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naushad Alam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose of the study: This work aims to find the type of relationship amongst the chosen variables, inflation (INF), short-term interest rate (SIR), money supply (M.S.) and crude oil price (COP) and oil price shocks represented by DUMMY respectively on the capital market of Saudi Arabia. It will also throw insight to policymaker to find factors which influence the capital market of Saudi Arabia and to take remedial measures to boost investment in the country. Research Methodology: The relationships amongst the Saudi security market, the oil price shock, and the selected macroeconomic variables as mentioned above are determined using the Johansen test of co-integration, the vector error correction model, and the Wald test. The research employs the time series data for a period of 2009to 2016, for the study. Findings: The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Saudi stock market and the selected variables for the study. The study shows a positive association between the money supply and the stock market, but inflation, short-term interest rate, and crude oil price, the result indicates a negative relationship. Implications: The present study can have implications for the policymaker to take corrective measures for better performance of the stock market by controlling inflation and regulating the short-term interest rate.As the findings indicate that they have a negative relationship with TASI. This paper will also help the policymaker in identifying the real cause for the decline in the value of the stock price. A good performing stock market means better economic growth and overall economic development. To diversify the economy to have an alternative to the oil-driven economy to a more balanced economy by promoting other sectors like manufacturing and tourism. Novelty/Originality of this study: The literature review confirms that all work of oil price shock is related to its effect on the security market return. This work is different from the other study as it includes macroeconomic variables in the study, together with the oil price shocks. The study is unique from other studies as it is broader in approach, by including more variables than earlier studies which mostly included the oil price shocks and its impact on the stock market. There is no work done to investigate the joint effect of macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks on the Saudi stock market.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Variabel-Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengembalian di Pasar Modal Periode 2000 -2011 dengan Membandingkan Hasil Estimasi OLS, GLS dan MLE

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Sari Minjari Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macro Variables

The factors in macroeconomic gives enormous influence on the fluctuation rate of return on stocks that is reflected in the stock price movement in the stock market. Movements in excess of the normal state, such as those caused by the global economic crisis, from the macro variables will create specific shocks on the capital markets, which will affect the value of the return on stocks in the capital market. To determine the effect of the factors or macroeconomic variables on the return of the index shares on BEI, empirical tests are accurately performed on these variables. This study has two main objectives: first to test how much the influence of macroeconomic variables on the return of the shares in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI). Second, empirical research testing of variables using three different estimation methods, namely, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Least Square (GLS) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find out how much the estimation accuracy of the three methods. The empirical result shows that there is a significant relationship between composite stock returns BEI and three macroeconomic variables, the consumer price index (inflation rate), exchange rate and interest rate of SBI. These results indicate that the three macro variables that affect the rate of return on the stock market.

Macroeconomic variables for predicting bear stock markets of Taiwan and China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tran Van Phuong Duong ◽  
Szu-Hsien Lin ◽  
Huei-Hwa Lai ◽  
Tzu-Pu Chang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Currency Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Bear Markets ◽  
Reserve Growth ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research examines how macroeconomic variables can precisely predict bull/bear stock markets in China and Taiwan.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a two-state Markov switching model to characterize the bull and bear markets spanning from 1994 to 2019 and then conduct a bear stock market predictability test by running regressions between the filtered probabilities of bear markets and a series of macroeconomic variables in turn at different horizons of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months.FindingsThis paper shows that inflation rates, changes in real exchange rates, and foreign currency reserve growth are key predictors of bear markets in China, while term spreads, unemployment rates and foreign reserve growth are major factors that can predict bear markets in Taiwan. Remarkably, industrial production growth does not have predictive power for bear markets, which may suggest emerging markets are driven by fund flows rather than real economic activities. Besides, the impact directions of foreign currency reserve growth are opposite, which may be due to different proportions of the financial accounts in their balance of payments.Practical implicationsIn practical respect, this paper provides market participants the usefulness, impact direction and implications of bear market predictors when building their market-timing strategies in China and Taiwan stock markets. The government institutions may also thereby make appropriate policies to prevent huge stock market downturns and serious drawbacks.Originality/valueIt highlights the “fund-driven market hypothesis” and “foreign currency reserve effects” that commonly dominate Taiwan and China stock markets since both are highly affected by international funds.

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