A Bayesian inference model for the credit rating scale

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Gmehling ◽  
Pierfrancesco La Mura
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Limited Accuracy

Purpose This paper aims to provide a theoretical explanation of why credit rating agencies typically disclose credit risk of issuers in classes rather than publishing the qualitative ranking those classes are based upon. Thus, its goal is to develop a better understanding of what determines the number and size of rating classes. Design/methodology/approach Investors expect ratings to be sufficiently accurate in estimating credit risk. In a theoretical model framework, it is therefore assumed that credit rating agencies, which observe credit risk with limited accuracy, are careful in not misclassifying an issuer with a lower credit quality to a higher rating class. This situation is analyzed as a Bayesian inference setting for the credit rating agencies. Findings A disclosure in intervals, typically used by credit rating agencies results from their objective of keeping misclassification errors sufficiently low in conjunction with the limited accuracy with which they observe credit risk. The number and size of the rating intervals depend in the model on how much accuracy the credit rating agencies can supply. Originality/value The paper uses Bayesian hypothesis testing to illustrate the link between limited accuracy of a credit rating agency and its disclosure of issuers’ credit risk in intervals. The findings that accuracy and the objective of avoiding misclassification determine the rating scale in this theoretical setting can lead to a better understanding of what influences the interval disclosure of major rating agencies observed in practice.

The impact of market sectors and rating agencies on credit ratings: global evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 389-410
Author(s):  
Kerstin Lopatta ◽  
Magdalena Tchikov ◽  
Finn Marten Körner
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Rating Agency ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rating Downgrades

Purpose A credit rating, as a single indicator on one consistent scale, is designed as an objective and comparable measure within a credit rating agency (CRA). While research focuses mainly on the comparability of ratings between agencies, this paper additionally questions empirically how CRAs meet their promise of providing a consistent assessment of credit risk for issuers within and between market segments of the same agency. Design/methodology/approach Exhaustive and robust regression analyses are run to assess the impact of market sectors and rating agencies on credit ratings. The examinations consider the rating level, as well as rating downgrades as a further measure of empirical credit risk. Data stems from a large global sample of Bloomberg ratings from 11 market sectors for the period 2010-2018. Findings The analyses show differing effects of sectors and agencies on issuer ratings and downgrade probabilities. Empirical results on credit ratings and rating downgrades can then be attributed to investment grade and non-investment grade ratings. Originality/value The paper contributes to current finance research and practice by examining the credit rating differences between sectors and agencies and providing assistance to investors and other stakeholders, as well as researchers, how issuers’ sector and rating agency affiliations act as relative metrics.

A comparative study of economic growth as a key determinant of sovereign credit ratings in Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
McBride Peter Nkhalamba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
African Union ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings

PurposeThis study is a comparative analysis of the magnitude of economic growth as a key determinant of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings in 30 countries in Africa, Europe, Asia and Latin America from 2010 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis applies the fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) panel least squares (PLS) models.FindingsThe authors find that the magnitude economic coefficients are marginally small for African countries compared to other developing countries in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Results of the probit and logit binary estimation models show positive coefficients for economic growth sub-factors for non-African countries (developing and developed) compared to negative coefficients for African countries.Practical implicationsThese findings mean that, an increase in economic growth in Africa does not significantly increase the likelihood that sovereign credit ratings will be upgraded. This implies that there is lack of uniformity in the application of the economic growth determinant despite the claims of a consistent framework by rating agencies. Thus, macroeconomic factors are relatively less important in determining country's risk profile in Africa than in other developing and developed countries.Originality/valueFirst, studies that investigate the accuracy of sovereign credit rating indicators and risk factors in Africa are rare. This study is a key literature at the time when the majority of African countries are exploring the window of sovereign bonds as an alternative funding model to the traditional concessionary borrowings from multilateral institutions. On the other hand, the persistent poor rating is driving the cost of sovereign bonds to unreasonably high levels, invariably threatening their hopes of diversifying funding options. Second, there is criticism that the rating assessments of the credit rating agencies are biased in favour of developed countries and there is a gap in literature on studies that explore the whether the credit rating agencies are biased against African countries. This paper thus explores the rationale behind the African Union Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.631 (XXVIII) adopted by the 28th Ordinary Session of the African Union held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in January 2017 (African Union, 2017), directing its specialized governance agency, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), to provide support to its Member States in the field of international credit rating agencies. The Assembly of African Heads of State and Government highlight that African countries are facing the challenges of credit downgrades despite an average positive economic growth. Lastly, the paper makes contribution to the argument that the majority of African countries are unfairly rated by international credit rating agencies, raising a discussion of the possibility of establishing a Pan-African credit rating institution.

Part II The Financial Crisis of 2007–2011, 6 Market and Regulatory Failure

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mccormick Roger ◽  
Stears Chris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Regulatory Failure

This chapter first discusses the origins of the financial crisis, highlighting practice of ‘packaging and selling’ credit risk by financial market participants that led up to the crisis. It argues that although, in retrospect, many aspects of that practice look very bad indeed, the idea that banks might originate a credit exposure and then transfer the credit risk attached to it to a third party was, before the financial crisis, considered to be part and parcel of sound risk management. The discussion then turns to credit-rating agencies. Analysis of the financial crisis and ‘what went wrong’ has shown that rating agencies were too generous with their rating of many of the structured products that contributed to the collapse.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

Regulating the Chinese credit rating agencies: progress and challenges

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Bian
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Effective Level ◽  
Full Dimension

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging Chinese credit rating agencies (CRAs), and their development, regulatory regime and challenges. The Chinese financial system has made many improvements; in particular, the regulatory regime has reached a more effective level. However, it should be admitted that some aspects still require further development. Compared with other developed markets, the Chinese credit rating industry is still young. Under these circumstances, questions are raised about the performance of the CRAs in China. Whether the legal framework is effective enough? A further point, in terms of the development, is what are the major obstacles lying ahead for the Chinese CRAs? Design/methodology/approach – This paper will concentrate on the study of Chinese CRAs. Starting with a brief introduction and analysis on the Chinese CRAs, it will further examine the rating methodologies of the Chinese CRAs. Following this, the regulatory regimes will be analyzed in detail, from the perspectives of the securities, banking and insurance market. Moreover, the paper will identify the key problems under the current regulatory regime. Last but not least, a conclusion and some future suggestions for the development of the regulatory regime will also be made based on the earlier observations and study. Findings – The current development stage and future reform requirement of the Chinese credit rating industry. Originality/value – Provide a full dimension and in depth analysis on the Chinese credit rating industry.

scholarly journals Empirical evolution of credit risk over a decade in IBEX. 35 companies and its relationship with the qualification of its ratings

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Josep Patau
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Rating Agency ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
Commercial Loans ◽  
The One

Object: The present work responds to two objectives. On the one hand, it describes the evolution of the main economic-financial indicators that influence credit risk (insolvency) for a sample of 10 Spanish companies listed on the IBEX 35. This analysis is studied for a comparative period of 10 years, which coincides with a pre-crisis stage (2002-2005) and an economic post-crisis phase (2012-2015). On the other hand, it corroborates the relationship between the analysed insolvency and the rating or credit-risk rating published for these companies by an internationally recognized credit rating agency, Standard & Poor's (S & P).Design / methodology: A sample of 10 companies and a 10-year period including the years 2002-2005 (pre-crisis) and the years 2012-2015 (post-crisis) are chosen, omitting the Spanish economic crisis that occurred in the year 2008. For the study of its evolution, 6 ratios obtained from the scientific literature that relate to credit risk and its effects on investments and company results are calculated. Finally, the correlations of these variables with the ratings of credit risk assessment by the rating agency S & P are measured. Descriptive statistics will assign value and graphics to this ten-year evolution, and with the incorporation of a factorial analysis, the correlation between the ratios and the S & P rating will be determined. The statistical analysis explains this correlation to a greater extent.Contributions / results: The results show a clear increase in the value of the impairment variable due to credit risk ten years later that directly affects the results of the companies, despite these companies having significantly reduced their investments in commercial loans pending collection and drastically reduced the period means of collection of clients. In turn, there is a clear correlation between the insolvency studied and the variables used by the S & P rating agency for the assessment of credit risk.Added value / conclusions: The empirical study concludes that there is a correspondence between insolvency and the rating given by an internationally prestigious rating agency (S & P) for the sample of 10 companies studied. Three variables – customer balance-accounts receivable, investments and the net amount of turnover – are determining factors explaining this correlation, and these three variables are the same ones that decisively influence both the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period 10 years apart. The rating agencies weigh the insolvency variable in their analyses.

Credit risk signals in CDS market vs agency ratings

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jacobs Jr ◽  
Ahmet K. Karagozoglu ◽  
Dina Naples Layish
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This research aims to model the relationship between the credit risk signals in the credit default swap (CDS) market and agency credit ratings, and determines the factors that help explain the variation in such signals. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive analysis of the differences in the relative credit risk assessments of CDS-based risk signals and agency ratings is provided. It is shown that the divergence between credit risk signals in the CDS market and agency ratings is explained by factors which the rating agencies may consider differently than credit market participants. Findings The results suggest that agency credit ratings of relative riskiness of a reference entity do not always correspond with assessments by CDS spreads, as the price of risk is a function of additional macro and micro factors that can be explained using statistical analysis. Originality/value This research is unique in modeling the relationship between the credit risk assessments of the CDS market and the agency ratings, which to the best of the authors' knowledge has not been analyzed before in terms of their agreement and the level of discrepancy between them. This model can be used by investors in debt instruments that are not explicitly CDSs or which have illiquid CDS contracts, to replicate market-based, point-in-time credit risk signals. Based on both market-based and firm-specific factors in this model, the results can be used to augment through-the-cycle credit risk assessments, analyze issues surrounding the pricing of CDSs and examine the policies of credit rating agencies.

Too little, too late? Role of credit rating agencies in the Amtek AUTO default

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Shagun Thukral ◽  
Sunder Korivi ◽  
Dipasha Sharma ◽  
Dipali Krishnakumar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Red Flags ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Markets And Institutions ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Credit Analysis

Subject area Fixed Income markets, Financial Markets and Institutions. Study level/applicability This case can be used in a postgraduate finance course such as an MBA and executive program for courses such as Fixed Income Markets and Financial Markets and Institutions. Case overview In late August 2015, the sudden downgrade and eventual default of Amtek AUTO Ltd (Amtek) on its debentures upset mutual fund investors and regulators. Questions were raised about the credit rating agencies and their lack of timely action as well as about the independent credit analysis followed by fund houses to protect the interests of investors. One such investor, Suresh Nair, decided to gather all possible available information on Amtek to determine whether it was sheer negligence on the part of all parties involved or if Amtek was in fact in a situation of sudden distress. The case seeks to highlight the credit analysis process, while looking out for red flags to identify potential default or financial stress in a company. Expected learning outcomes To understand the credit analysis process through a fundamental analysis process. To analyze and interpret the financial position of the company through various financial ratios. Identifying “red flags” while evaluating a potential credit that pose as “risks” to credit assessment. Understanding the role and relevance of credit rating agencies in the bond market. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance

scholarly journals Information as a condition of justice in financial markets: The regulation of credit-rating agencies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boudewijn de Bruin
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Informational Needs ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Mortgage Backed Securities

This chapter argues for deregulation of the credit-rating market. Credit-rating agencies are supposed to contribute to the informational needs of investors trading bonds. They provide ratings of debt issued by corporations and governments, as well as of structured debt instruments (e.g. mortgage-backed securities). As many academics, regulators, and commentators have pointed out, the ratings of structured instruments turned out to be highly inaccurate, and, as a result, they have argued for tighter regulation of the industry. This chapter shows, however, that the role of credit-rating agencies in achieving justice in finance is not as great as these commentators believe. It therefore argues instead for deregulation. Since the 1930s, lawgivers have unjustifiably elevated the rating agencies into official, legally binding sources of information concerning credit risk, thereby unjustifiably causing many institutional investors to outsource their epistemic responsibilities, that is, their responsibility to investigate credit risk themselves.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document