US policy uncertainty and stock returns: evidence in the US and its spillovers to the European Union, China and Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 621-657
Author(s):  
Thomas C. Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And Japan

Purpose Recent empirical studies by Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou and Filis (2013), Brogaard and Detzel (2015) and Christou et al. (2017) present evidence, which supports the notion that a rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) will lead to a decline in stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine US categorical policy uncertainty on stock returns while controlling for implied volatility and downside risk. In addition to the domestic impacts of policy uncertainty, this paper also presents evidence that changes in US policy uncertainty promptly propagates to the global stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a GED-GARCH (1, 1) model to estimate changes of uncertainties in US monetary, fiscal and trade policies on stock returns for the sample period of January 1990–December 2018. Robustness test is conducted by using different set of data and modeling techniques. Findings This paper contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, testing of US aggregate data while controlling for downside risk and implied volatility, consistently, shows that responses of stock prices to US policy uncertainty changes, not only display a negative effect in the current period but also have at least a one-month time-lag. The evidence supports the uncertainty premium hypothesis. Second, extending the test to global data reveals that US policy uncertainty changes have a negative impact on markets in Europe, China and Japan. Third, testing the data in sectoral stock markets mainly displays statistically significant results with a negative sign. Fourth, the evidence consistently shows that changes in policy uncertainty present an inverse relation to the stock returns, regardless of whether uncertainty is moving upward or downward. Research limitations/implications The current research is limited to the markets in the USA, eurozone, China and Japan. This study can be extended to additional countries, such as emerging markets. Practical implications This paper provides a model that uses categorical policy uncertainty approach to explain stock price changes. The parametric estimates provide insightful information in advising investors for making portfolio decision. Social implications The estimated coefficients of changes in monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty are informative in assisting policymakers to formulate effective financial policies. Originality/value This study extends the existing risk premium model in several directions. First, it separates the financial risk factors from the EPU innovations; second, instead of using EPU, this study investigates the effects from monetary policy, fiscal policy and trade policy uncertainties; third, in additional to an examination of the effects of US categorical policy uncertainties on its own markets, this study also investigates the spillover effects to global major markets; fourth, besides the aggregate stock markets, this study estimates the effects of US policy uncertainty innovations on the sectoral stock returns.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on financial markets: a time-varying analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Phuc Nguyen ◽  
Thanh Dinh Su ◽  
Udomsak Wongchoti ◽  
Christophe Schinckus
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This study aims to examine the spillover effects of trans-Atlantic macroeconomic uncertainties on the local stock market returns in the USA and eight selected European countries, namely, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Sweden and the UK, during the 2000-2019 period. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (i.e. multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model or DCC MGARCH) to examine the potential existence of the spillover from the uncertainty of the USA to EU stock markets and vice versa. To capture different dynamic relationships between multiple time-series variables following different regimes, this paper applies the Markov switching model to the stock returns of both the USA and the eight major stock markets. Findings The increases in US uncertainty have significant negative impacts on all EU stock returns, whereas only the increases in the uncertainties of Spain, Ireland, Sweden and the UK have significant negative impacts on US stock returns. Notably, the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the USA has a dynamic effect on the European stock markets. In a bear market (State 1), the increases in the EPU of the USA and EU have significant negative impacts on EU stock returns in most cases. However, only the increase in US EPU has significant negative impacts on EU stock returns in bull markets (State 2). Reciprocally, the increases in the EU EPUs of Germany, Spain and the UK have significant impacts on US stock returns in bear market. Originality/value The observations challenge the conventional wisdom according to which only larger economies can lead the smaller counterparts. The findings also highlight the stronger dependence of the US stock market on international macroeconomic uncertainty.

Stock returns and the US dollar: the importance of monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1046-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher Hughen ◽  
Scott Beyer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return data to determine the relation between the dollar’s value and stock prices as it relates to monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine US stock returns over a 40-year period, which is classified according to monetary policy and dollar trend. To better understand the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the authors estimate a model of stock returns using the three Fama-French factors and a momentum factor. Then the authors explore the underlying economic fundamentals that drive the sharp difference in annual returns between periods when the dollar is in an uptrend trend with loose monetary policy and periods when the dollar is in a downtrend with tight monetary policy. Findings – Over the last 40 years, US stock returns were 2.5 times higher when the dollar was trending up vs down. The factor model of returns shows that equity returns are positively associated with periods when the dollar appreciated. Returns were particularly high when the dollar was in an uptrend during accommodative monetary policy. During these periods, stocks in the consumer goods and services industries provided relatively high returns. This occurred with strong economic growth due to consumer spending. Stocks exhibited the lowest returns when the dollar was depreciating and the Federal Reserve was tightening. Originality/value – The key contribution of the research is that currency trends should be analyzed in the light of monetary policy. During periods of accommodative monetary policy and dollar appreciation, the US stock market provided average returns of 18.7 percent compared to −3.29 percent during a period of restrictive monetary policy and dollar depreciation. This result is driven by stronger economic growth, which is composed of consumer spending that more than offsets the dollar’s impact on net exports.

Volatility and cross correlations of stock markets in SAARC nations

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Shachi Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine cross-correlation in stock returns of SAARC countries, conditional and unconditional volatility of stock markets and to test efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach – Stock indices of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are considered to serve as proxy for stock markets in SAARC countries. Data consist of daily closing price of stock indices from 2000 to 2011. Since preliminary testing indicated presence of serial autocorrelation and volatility clustering, family of GARCH models is selected. Findings – Results indicate presence of serial autocorrelation in stock market returns, implying dependence of current stock prices on stock prices of previous times and leads to rejection of EMH. Significant relationship between stock market returns and unconditional volatility indicates investors’ expectation of extra risk premium for exposing their portfolios to unexpected variations in stock markets. Cross-correlation revealed level of integration of South Asian economies with global market to be high. Research limitations/implications – Business cycles and other macroeconomic developments affect most companies and lead to unexplained relationships. The paper finds stock markets to exist at different levels of development as economic liberalization started at different points of time in SAARC countries. Practical implications – Correlation between stock indices of SAARC economies are found to be low which is in line with intra-regional trade being one of lowest as compared to other regional groups. Results point towards greater need for economic cooperation and integration between SAARC countries. Greater financial integration leads to development of markets and institutions, effective price discovery, higher savings and greater economic progress. Originality/value – The paper focuses on EMH and risk return relation for SAARC nations.

scholarly journals Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interactions on Stock Returns in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Onanuga Idowu ◽  
Ilo Bamidele ◽  
Lucas Elumah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run

This research examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on stock returns in Nigeria. The researchers utilized ex-post facto research design using the time series data of the annual market values of All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). It was yearly data on the various monetary policy and fiscal policy variables obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins covering from 1985 to 2017. The result of the cointegration test reveals a long-run relationship between monetary variables and stock returns. Meanwhile, the overall result shows that monetary policy has a significant effect on stock return. However, there is no long-run relationship between fiscal policy variables and stock returns. Meanwhile, the result of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression model shows that fiscal policy has a significant effect on stock prices in Nigeria. On the other hand, a long-run relationship exists between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and stock returns. It has a significant effect on stock returns in Nigeria. This implies that monetary and fiscal policies have a significant effect on stock returns in Nigeria. It is recommended that there is a need for the federal government to harmonize fiscal and monetary policies in the same direction and to equally design policies that promote a free market for the growth of the Nigerian economy.

Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market returns: influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-798
Author(s):  
Jessica Paule-Vianez ◽  
Camilo Prado-Román ◽  
Raúl Gómez-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle. Design/methodology/approach Using four news-based MPU measures, regression models have been applied in this study over a sample period from January 1985 to March 2020. The limits to arbitrage have been considered by taking Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth indices, and business cycles were established following the National Bureau of Economic Research. Findings A negative MPU impact on stock returns has been found. In particular, the most subjective and difficult to arbitrate stocks have been more sensitive to MPU. However, it could not be concluded that MPU has a greater or lesser impact on stock returns depending on the economic cycle. Practical implications The findings obtained are particularly useful for monetary policymakers showing the importance and need for greater control over the transparency of their decisions to maintain the stability of financial markets. The findings obtained are also useful for investors when selecting their investment assets at times of the highest MPU. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the few studies investigating the effect of MPU on stock market returns, and the first to analyse this relationship taking into account the economic cycle and limits to arbitrage.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

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