scholarly journals Panama Canal vs alternative routes: estimating a logit model for grains

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-120
Author(s):  
Javier Daniel Ho ◽  
Paul Bernal
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Traffic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Intelligence ◽  
Cape Of Good Hope ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Routes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to fit a logit model for dry bulkers transporting grains through the Panama Canal versus alternative routes destined to East Asia, originating on the US Gulf and East Coast. This is with the purpose of better understanding the attributes. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, grain transits both through the Panama Canal and alternative routes, which are examined, and a logit model is developed to explain the route decision from a carrier/vessel operator point of view. Findings Transit draft is the most important attribute in the route decision process for grains according to this study. Also, Panamax bulkers are the preferred vessel size into China, especially through the Cape of Good Hope route, impacting Panama Canal’s market share for grains. Research limitations/implications This research used only a full year of grain traffic data approximating fiscal year 2018 (October 1, 2017 to September 30, 2018). Data will come mostly from the Panama Canal transit data and observations using IHS’s Market Intelligence Network (MINT). Originality/value This paper is highly dependent on visual observations of grains vessels through alternative routes using AIS data from MINT software.

Iran’s hopes of swift economic recovery will be dashed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader

Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

IMF bailout would force Pakistan’s Khan to compromise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government

Subject Pakistan's likely need for an IMF bailout. Significance Prime Minister Imran Khan, sworn in earlier this month, came to power promising to create an ‘Islamic welfare state’. In the fiscal year ending June 2018, the current account deficit was nearly 6% of GDP and the budget deficit nearly 7% of GDP. Pakistan in September 2016 completed a three-year Extended Fund Facility programme with the IMF worth some 6.6 billion dollars, and in the last month has availed of loans worth 2.0 billion dollars from China and 4.0 billion dollars from Saudi Arabia. Impacts The US government will issue further warnings against an IMF bailout being used to pay off Pakistan’s debt to China. The revival of ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may hinder Islamabad’s efforts to improve ties with Tehran. Khan’s governing coalition will be relatively stable, fewer constituent parties reducing the risk of splits, and the opposition divided.

Audit assurance and tax enforcement

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-472
Author(s):  
Dengjun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Administration ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Tax Enforcement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Business Environments ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of audit assurance on tax enforcement, which is represented by whether firms have been visited by tax officials and, if so, the total number of inspections per fiscal year. The efficiency of tax administration is further examined by whether it becomes a binding constraint to a firm’s operations. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of 18,746 firm-year observations from 28 transition and market-based economies in Central-Eastern Europe. The binary logit model, the Poisson model and the ordinal logit model are applied to test the hypotheses. Findings The empirical results show that, while audit assurance does not reduce the probability of being visited by tax officials (regardless of visit times) for the two country groups, firms with audited financial reports meet tax officials less often in market-based economies but not in transition economies. Furthermore, only in market-based economies does audit assurance reduce the probability that tax administration becomes a severe obstacle to firms’ operations. Originality/value This study addresses the relationship between tax administration and audit assurance in market-based and transition countries. One implication of the empirical findings is that audit assurance would add benefits to business environments when countries evolve from transition to market-based economies.

US missile 'defence' may prove to be the opposite

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Spending ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence System ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject US missile defence. Significance By the end of September, the administration and Congress hope to have agreed federal spending for the 2020 fiscal year. The administration wants to increase military spending, part of President Donald Trump's push to rebuild and update the US military, something also central to his 2020 'Keep America Great' policy for re-election. Within this push is the administration's effort further to develop an effective ballistic missile defence system. Impacts US firms working around missile defence technology and development could benefit. Making missile defence more effective will need space-based sensors for earlier launch detection, and effective missiles. Democrats will demand higher social spending as the price for higher military spending. The more successful US missile defence, the more US 'rivals' will push to develop their own offensive and defensive missiles.

Iran will skimp to finance higher military spending

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Spending ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Household Finances ◽  
Ballistic Missiles ◽  
The Us ◽  
Immediate Response

Significance This was an immediate response to the US killing of Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, preceding today’s launch of ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US troops. Increased security fears are also feeding into the debate over the draft budget for the fiscal year that starts on March 21. Impacts If Iran’s re-nuclearisation provokes “snapback” UN sanctions, the economic situation will deteriorate still further. Pressure on household finances could increase support for populist conservative candidates in the 2020 legislative elections. Some parts of the establishment, including IRGC entities, will profit from sanctions, for example through smuggling.

Tussles loom over reforming the US Postal Service

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Universal Service ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Postal Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Budget Request ◽  
The Us

Significance The administration’s 2021 fiscal year (October 1-September 30) budget request dismisses the preferred solution of the postmaster general and Congress Democrats, for taxpayers to fund USPS retiree healthcare obligations. Impacts Ending universal service would disproportionately hit rural areas and small towns, which rely on USPS. USPS will come under pressure to be more transparent about the discounts and terms it offers to bulk customers. The Postal Regulatory Commission’s review of how postal rates are set is likely to expand the criteria for justifying increases. Congress will appropriate more money for USPS to keep it going, but that will not necessarily drive reform.

Shift in US aid policy could reduce global prosperity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Budget Request ◽  
Bargaining Position ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
Funding Cuts ◽  
Aid Policy

Subject US development policy. Significance On March 16, the US administration presented its budget request for the 2018 fiscal year starting October 1, 2017 (FY18). The ‘America First’ budget reflects a bargaining position that will be examined and moderated by Congress later in the appropriation cycle but may signal a major policy shift, as recommended funding cuts and proposed elimination of agencies mark a break from the bipartisan approach of previous decades. Impacts Eliminating US funding for bilateral and multilateral climate change programmes may jeopardise implementation of the Paris agreement. Reduced US assistance to low-income countries that Washington deems ‘non-strategic’ might reverse development gains. The removal of development agencies' support for exports and foreign investments would limit business opportunities for US firms. Using development assistance for short-term foreign policy and reducing untied aid would weaken international cooperation on development. US opposition to reforms of international financial institutions would also reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.

Advancements and forecasts of electronic tax return and informational filings in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 352-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai S. Koong ◽  
Shuming Bai ◽  
Sara Tejinder ◽  
Charlotte Morris
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Grand Total ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tax Returns ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Original Goal ◽  
Increasing Trends

Purpose The US Congress set the original goal that 80 per cent of all tax returns should to be filed electronically for the 2007 tax year. Unfortunately, only 70 per cent of the total returns were electronically filed (e-filed) in 2017. This paper aims to examine the longitudinal progress of total tax returns e-filed by individuals, businesses and “other” categories for the period from 2004 to 2017 and projects a timeline to attain the goal. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive computation and analysis were performed for the volume, ratios and growth of e-filing for the major types of return. A parallel analysis was performed for the business categories. Applying various time series and exponential smoothing forecasting models, the authors projected major return e-filings for the forecast horizons from 2018 to 2025. Findings First, individual tax returns filed electronically have attained the target goal of 80 per cent since 2012, the extended deadline by Congress, so have corporations and partnerships for Fiscal Year 2017. Second, both the e-file volume and e-file rate for the grand total, individuals and businesses exhibit monotonically increasing trends over the sample period. Third, of the grand e-filings, individual returns constitute the vast majority of 84 per cent, while business e-files are less than 12 per cent. Originality/value This study is a holistic and comprehensive analysis of the adoption of e-filing in the USA. From the longitudinal analysis and the variety of forecasting models applied, the results show that the focus should be on the employment tax e-file as it stands at only 41 per cent for 2017 due to few mandates, while the returns make up 65 per cent of total business returns. The authors projected that the grand total e-filing will attain the Congressional goal of 80 per cent by 2020 along with proposed strategies and recommendations.

Fortress Europe? UCITS V and the US Fund Manager

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Jesch ◽  
Hartmut Renz ◽  
Stephen Culhane ◽  
Simon Firth ◽  
David Sausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sustainable Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Sustainable Business Models ◽  
Fortress Europe ◽  
Excessive Risk Taking ◽  
Credit Institutions

Purpose – To discuss the new UCITS V Directive, recently agreed upon by the European Parliament and Council, which will include safeguards to protect client assets in the event of a depositary’s insolvency and also address remuneration practices that are thought to encourage excessive risk-taking. Design/methodology/approach – Summarizes UCITS-V, discusses whether the new remuneration rules are sound, addresses the concern that the UCITS V remuneration restrictions could make it difficult for USA-affiliated advisers and managers to manage UCITS, summarizes next steps and further procedures. Findings – From an institutional point of view, deferred remuneration systems will require credit institutions, as well as investment firms and custodians, to ensure sound and sustainable business models that also protect the public. This will be accomplished in part by establishing incentives and compliance systems that foster a risk-aware approach and an awareness by employees that they will profit only if the fund investors or the relevant credit institutions do. UCITS offering materials will need to be evaluated to see if current advisory structures can be maintained while retaining the desired business profile of the fund. Originality/value – Practical explanation by experienced lawyers.

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