The nexus between exchange rate and long-term investment in Indian manufacturing industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-198
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Financial Flexibility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of changes in the exchange rate on long-term investment decisions of Indian manufacturing firms at the sector level.Design/methodology/approachThe study is undertaken on a sample of 1,222 firms from six key manufacturing sectors of Indian economy during the period 2000-2016. The non-linear relationship between real exchange rate and long-term investment is studied using the two-step generalized model of moments estimator.FindingsThe study finds a concave (i.e. inverted U-shaped) relationship between the long-term investment and real exchange rate, particularly in case of chemical, construction, machinery and textile sector, in particular, and Indian manufacturing industry as a whole. It implies that investments in these sectors increase with depreciation of real exchange rate up to a point of inflection and subsequent to which it starts decreasing if exchange rate continues to depreciate further. But consumer goods and metal product sectors ensure a convex pattern, which demonstrates that investment is decreasing at the initial stage of depreciation of the exchange rate. The study moves one-step forward in validating this nexus between investment and exchange rate with respect to the price-cost margin and the extent of financial flexibility of firms. It is found that high price cost margin and financial flexibility moderates the adverse impact of exchange rate depreciation and immunizes the long-term investments in the scenario of a weak domestic currency and induce long-term investments.Research limitations/implicationsThe study measures the impact of exchange rate changes, but the impact of exchange rate volatility on investment has not been studied, which is absolutely different with different implications.Practical implicationsThe study provides a clear guideline to firm managers for using the exchange rate movements in a favorable manner. The findings can be used to ensure sustainable long-term investments with respect to the core competence of firms in terms of price cost margin and financial flexibility at sector level of Indian manufacturing firms.Originality/valueThe study analyzes the non-linear relationship between exchange rate changes and long-term investment behavior of manufacturing firms from six key sectors of India. Further, the study moves one step forward to analyze this nexus under different scenarios of financial flexibility and price cost margin using dynamic panel models.

The determinants of corporate profitability: an investigation of Indian manufacturing firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swagatika Nanda ◽  
Ajaya Kumar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It assesses the main determinants of firm’s profitability in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period from 2000 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach This methodology splits the factors that influence firm profitability in two groups: firm-specific (internal) factors and macroeconomic indicators. It further aims to look at the consistency of the factors in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period. The return on assets and the net profit margin are considered as proxy for corporate profits. The panel generalized least square and panel vector auto-regression model have been employed, and it is observed that the exchange rate seems to have played a major role in the crisis period by explaining the earning quotient for Indian firms. Findings This paper concludes that the firm-specific variables and exchange rate channels are quite relevant in explaining the profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It accepts the hypotheses that size and liquidity enhances whereas leverage discourages the profitability. Few exceptions have been observed during the crisis period. The study also concludes that in the short run, the changes in exchange rate are not increasing profitability, but in the long run, it increases profitability as the volatility of nominal exchange rate is positively impacting profitability. Moreover, the study finds that the nominal exchange rate index is more informative and explains that profitability is better than real exchange rate index in the case of Indian manufacturing firms over the study period. Research limitations/implications The managers and the policy makers should give utmost importance to the firm-specific determinants, especially after the crisis period, and consider the appropriate exchange rate to evaluate firm performance for making any change in the policy to make any business profitable. Originality/value This study has been conducted over a longer time by using advanced panel data analysis techniques on the recent data. The study period properly captures the crisis time and the research includes different selection of profitability that highlights corporate earnings pattern. Moreover, validation of the exchange rate sensitivity of profitability over nominal and real exchange rate increases the robustness of the study. Moreover, on Indian manufacturing firms, the study is very significant and unique.

Real exchange rate and investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Troncoso Baltar ◽  
Celio Hiratuka ◽  
Gilberto Tadeu Lima
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the real exchange rate on investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. Design/methodology/approach – The authors develop an investment model that considers the effect of changes in the real exchange rate, taking into account that the effect of the real exchange rate on the Brazilian manufacturing investment operates through demand and cost channels. The composition of these effects varies across manufacturing sectors, with different repercussions on investment decisions, depending on sectoral characteristics. A panel data analysis is applied to estimate the model for the Brazilian manufacturing sectors from 1996 to 2010. Findings – One main result is that the responsiveness of the Brazilian manufacturing investment to real exchange rate varies considerably across manufacturing sectors. Overall, the results contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between exchange rate dynamics, manufacturing investment and industrial development, thus unveiling important empirical elements for the debate on industrial policies to stimulate manufacturing investment and production. Originality/value – As the (scant) empirical literature on real exchange rate and investment in Brazil has invariably been using aggregate data, this paper contributes to the literature by obtaining sectoral estimates of the responsiveness of manufacturing investment to exchange rate fluctuations that further the understanding of the complex relationship between these economic variables.

The long-run interrelationship between exchange rate and interest rate: the case of Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 1380-1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Capasso ◽  
Oreste Napolitano ◽  
Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-term nature of the interrelationship between interest rate and exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach By employing Mexican data, the authors estimate a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to investigate the nature of the changes and the interaction between interest rate and exchange rate in response to monetary authorities’ actions. Findings The results show that, contrary to simplistic predictions, the real exchange rate causes the real interest rate in an asymmetric way. The bounds testing approach of the NARDL models suggests the presence of co-integration among the variables and the exchange rate variations appear to have significant long-run effects on the interest rate. Most importantly, these effects are asymmetric and positive variations in the exchange rate have a lower impact on the interest rate. It is also interesting to report that the reverse is not true: the interest rate in the long-run exerts no statistical significant impact on the exchange rate. Practical implications The asymmetric long-term relationship between real exchange rate and real interest rate is evidence of why monetary authorities are reluctant to free float exchange rate. In Mexico, as in most developing countries, monetary policy strongly responds to exchange rate movements because these have relevant effects on commercial trade. Moreover, in dollarized economies these effects are stronger because of pass-through impacts to inflation, income distribution and balance-sheet equilibrium (the well-known “original sin”). Originality/value Under inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regime, despite central banks pursue the control of short-term interest rate, in the long-run one could observe that it is the exchange rate that influences the interest rate, and that this reverse causality is stronger in emerging economies. This paper contributes by analysing the asymmetric relationship between the variables.

Exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 414-434
Author(s):  
Vaseem Akram ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in India using annual data from 1980 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach First, misalignment is measured, which is defined as the deviations of the actual real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) is estimated using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model by considering key macroeconomic fundamentals of the determinants of RER. Zivot and Andrews’ unit root with structural break is used to test the stationarity property of data. The impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth has been examined using ARDL and variance decomposition techniques. Findings Our results find an overvaluation of the exchange rate till 2000, and thereafter, an undervaluation of the exchange rate prevails in India. Further, the result indicates that an increase in exchange rate misalignment leads to a decrease in economic growth and vice versa. Moreover, a positive misalignment (overvaluation) hurts the economic growth and a negative misalignment (undervaluation) promotes the economic growth. Research limitations/implications From the policy perspective, the results highlight that India needs to maintain an appropriate exchange rate which can reduce the RER misalignment. It is better for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s intervention to smoothen the fluctuations of the exchange rate to avoid the inefficiency in the allocation of resources. However, to minimize the RER misalignment, the intervention should be conducted only in the short run. Originality/value The study contributes to the existing literature by estimating the exchange rate misalignment for India and its impact on economic growth.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Differences in the impact of AMO bundles of line managers and frontline workers on the performance of manufacturing firms

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bayo-Moriones ◽  
Alejandro Bello-Pindado
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Line Managers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Frontline Workers ◽  
Hrm Practices ◽  
Manufacturing Performance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact on manufacturing performance of human resource management (HRM) practices across two job levels within manufacturing firms in Argentina and Uruguay: that of line managers and frontline workers. HRM practices are categorised into three bundles defined by the AMO theoretical framework: ability, motivation and opportunity.Design/methodology/approachThe article uses data from a survey to 301 manufacturing plants in Uruguay and Argentina. Given the characteristics of the dependent variable, linear regression models have been estimated in order to test the hypotheses.FindingsThe results show that the ability and opportunity bundles for line managers are positively associated with manufacturing performance. However, only the motivation bundle affects manufacturing performance for frontline workers.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitations are the use of cross-sectional data, the focus on two specific countries and the analysis of two employee categories that are not completely homogenous. The paper extends the contingency perspective in HRM by examining the relevance of job level as a contingent factor in the HRM-performance relationship in the manufacturing industry.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that manufacturing companies should target HR investments more towards line managers than to frontline employees. More specifically, they should concentrate efforts on the ability and opportunity bundles.Originality/valueThe article contributes to the very limited empirical evidence on the impact of HRM differentiation on firm performance by analysing sub-dimensions in a context not previously analysed.

scholarly journals The Impact of Russia’s Oil-Dominated Energy Economic Changes on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble – Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s economic development has a close relation with China, due to geographical and historical reasons. This paper investigates whether the ruble – renminbi exchange rate changes accordingly when the pillar industry of Russia is drastically changing, and how the exchange rate changes and how it affects Russia’s economic development. In this paper, data of 7 variables spanning 122 months are selected based on related literature and availability of data. Regression analysis and empirical tests are carried out consequently. The results show that the energy price index represented by oil prices is negatively correlated with the exchange rate, and the explanatory power is as high as 41.1%. Following basic arbitrage methods and strategies, this paper verifies the feasibility of using arbitrage by comparing actual exchange rates with forecasted exchange rates. According to empirical results, problems witnessed in the process of ruble internationalization provides policy implications for China. China’s economy is utilized as an example to discuss the shortcomings of Russia’s economy. Related solutions are proposed.

scholarly journals Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Egypt: a structural VAR approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omneia Helmy ◽  
Mona Fayed ◽  
Kholoud Hussien
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying relationship between the exchange rate and prices known as the exchange rate pass-through. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, drawing on Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986), to empirically examine and analyze the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Egypt. Findings The empirical results of the monthly data between 2003 and 2015 revealed that the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt is fairly substantial but incomplete and slow in the three price indices [IMP, producer price index and consumer price index (CPI)]. However, the impact is more prominent for consumer prices than for any other price index. This finding could be attributed to the fact that the CPI in Egypt is composed of a relatively large number of subsidized commodities and goods with administered prices as well as the authorities’ behavior in manipulating prices (i.e. export ban). This is expected to weaken the transmission of exchange rate shocks. Practical implications The result has interesting implications for Egypt’s ability to attain an effective inflation targeting regime. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature by assessing the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the Egyptian £ vis-à-vis the US$) on prices using an updated time series from 2003 to 2015. It addresses the limitations of the study of Nafie et al. (2004), which found no strong relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate in the Egyptian context. One of these limitations was using the CPI, as the only price index.

Does the exchange rate overshoot in an emerging economy?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Amir Rafique ◽  
Evan Lau
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extant Literature ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Substantial Decline

Purpose The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money supply owing to the sticky nature of prices. Because of interest and relevance to policy, there is a huge extant literature on it but with mixed findings that suggest the need for further studies to refine the findings. Pakistan’s rupee exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated 128.44% over the period May 2007–December 2018. Considering this substantial decline in rupee's value, this study aims to examine either the rupee short-run value is over-shot of its long-term value. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a linear ARDL approach that segregates the short-run and long-run effects thus clarifying the premise of exchange rate overshooting. Furthermore, this study also uses nonlinear ARDL as a robustness check incorporating structural breaks. Findings Findings based on a linear model show evidence of exchange rate undershooting that means a positive money shock causes the exchange rate to appreciate. A nonlinear analysis also provides support to these findings. However, the increase in relative money supply has more such effect than that of a decrease in the relative money supply. Moreover, the authorities’ inclination to stabilize the exchange rate appreciates its short-run value. Originality/value This study substantiates the overshooting hypothesis literature by considering the role of asymmetric effects of exchange rate determinants and structural breaks that is a rare attempt in the extant literature.

Economic complexity and price competitiveness dependence: empirical evidence using panel models

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Magacho ◽  
Rafael Ribeiro ◽  
Igor Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Competitiveness ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As economies with high economic complexity and productive capabilities may easily adapt their productive structure due to product differentiation and innovation, the central variable of competitiveness for these countries is the product quality, not price. On the other hand, the price can be an important determinant of less complex countries, and hence, real exchange rate (RER) misalignments may have long-term impacts. This paper aims to empirically assess variations in the magnitude of the impact in RER misalignments on output growth subject to countries’ economic complexity. Design/methodology/approach The estimation technique used is the generalized method of moments-System estimator as this method is robust to reverse causality. Heterogeneous regressions using interaction models are undertaken to analyze to what extend promoting economic complexity can reduce price competitiveness dependence and allow countries to grow faster without relying on cost competitiveness. Findings Estimates show that economic complexity (which measures technological and productive capabilities) determines cross-country differences regarding the effects of RER misalignments on countries’ long-term growth rates. The results suggest that exchange rate devaluations may not be effective for countries at the top end of the technological ladder while an overvalued RER may damage the long-term growth rate of countries with low levels of economic complexity. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by empirically investigating the impact of RER misalignments in countries with distinct technological and productive capabilities based on the recent developments of countries’ economic complexity analysis. It investigates whether more diversified and complex economies are less sensitive to RER misalignments as they can adapt their production, undertake other tasks, create new products and increase the quality of products they produce. Less complex economies, on the other hand, are less capable of innovating because it demands productive capabilities they do not have, and hence, they are more dependent on their current export basket.

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