AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America to end-2017. Significance The economies of Mexico and Central America will maintain a ‘business as usual’ stance until renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) formally starts later in the year. Growth momentum in the region is therefore likely to be maintained for the rest of 2017. Nonetheless, threats to trade and migration links with the United States, and to remittance income, will drive uncertainty.


Significance Separately, five Republican senators, led by Florida's Marco Rubio, wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on February 7, requesting she invite Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to address a joint Congress session. Impacts The proposed US-Taiwan free trade agreement is presently unlikely to advance. The Trump administration might be more willing than others to defend Taiwan, but relations with China will take priorty. Taiwan is exporting its political divisions to the United States; the main opposition Kuomintang will open a Washington office this year.


Significance Canada has a temporary exemption, but Trump is calling for North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations to be completed speedily. The NAFTA and tariffs issues have, therefore, become fused, raising questions about the outlook for Canada-US foreign relations. Impacts In the short term, Canadian steel companies may benefit from reduced foreign providers’ presence in the United States. Canada’s NAFTA negotiators will not respond to the Trump team’s threat to impose tariffs. Canadian businesses will begin to migrate south to take advantage of the new and more competitive US tax regime. Canada’s efforts to diversify its foreign trade and decrease US dependence will further accelerate, but still face hurdles.


Subject The outlook for the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement. Significance Ministers representing the countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement recessed their talks on July 31 without concluding the agreement, even though one was expected now that the United States and Japan, the two largest members, have neared agreement on most bilateral issues. Impacts Japan's textiles and transport sectors are likely to benefit significantly; rice will suffer a little and wheat a lot. Japan's overall gains will probably be small and slow to arrive; US gains will be even smaller. Both economies are already relatively open and trade makes a small contribution to their GDPs; this limits scope for gains. The lower-income economies will have by far the largest gains from increased trade and FDI.


Significance The statement is the latest in a string of similar announcements by companies fearful of obstacles to free trade being put in place between Mexico and the United States. Trump has consistently engaged in protectionist, anti-Mexican rhetoric, pressuring US firms to abandon planned investments in Mexico, demanding a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and threatening to impose a 20% border tax or selective tariffs on Mexican exports. Impacts Mexico will see diminished foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2017 due to uncertainty over the future of NAFTA. A moderate-sized hit to Mexican exports could knock around 0.5 percentage points off growth, possibly contributing to a recession. In the medium term, China could take advantage of worsening US-Mexico relations to deepen economic and political ties with Mexico.


Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance The first round of virtual UK-US free trade negotiations began on Tuesday May 5 and conclude today. While a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States is a stated priority for the UK government, it will be difficult to conclude a comprehensive deal this year, in particular due to divisions over agrifood and medicine, while there is also not enough time. However, the chances of the United Kingdom and United States agreeing a deal narrower in scope than a fully-fledged FTA are higher. Impacts The main obstacles in reaching an FTA will be regulatory ones. It will be almost impossible for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. Washington knows an FTA is politically important for the Conservative government, giving it leverage to shape a favourable deal.


1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (2) ◽  
pp. 394-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Raby

This is a good deal, a good deal for Canada and a deal that is good for all Canadians. It is also a fair deal, which means that it brings benefits and progress to our partner, the United States of America. When both countries prosper, our democracies are strengthened and leadership has been provided to our trading partners around the world. I think this initiative represents enlightened leadership to the trading partners about what can be accomplished when we determine that we are going to strike down protectionism, move toward liberalized trade, and generate new prosperity for all our people.On January 2, 1988, President Ronald Reagan of the United States and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney of Canada signed the landmark comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries that already enjoyed the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world. The FTA was subsequently ratified by the legislatures of both countries, if only after a bitterly fought election on the subject in Canada. On January 1, 1989, the FTA formally came into effect.


2000 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 312-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Salem

Has the time come for a free-trade agreement (FTA) between Egypt and the United States? According to the contributors to Building Bridges, an FTA is the logical next step in the Egypt–U.S. relationship. This policy-oriented volume explores the conditions under which the benefits of an FTA between the parties would be maximized. Although the contributors reach different conclusions regarding the optimal form of the Egypt–U.S. FTA, consensus is reached on one point: an FTA between Egypt and the United States will produce economic benefits for both nations.


2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denielle M. Perry ◽  
Kate A. Berry

At the turn of the 21st century, protectionist policies in Latin America were largely abandoned for an agenda that promoted free trade and regional integration. Central America especially experienced an increase in international, interstate, and intraregional economic integration through trade liberalization. In 2004, such integration was on the agenda of every Central American administration, the U.S. Congress, and Mexico. The Plan Puebla-Panama (PPP) and the Central America Integrated Electricity System (SIEPAC), in particular, aimed to facilitate the success of free trade by increasing energy production and transmission on a unifi ed regional power grid (Mesoamerica, 2011). Meanwhile, for the United States, a free trade agreement (FTA) with Central America would bring it a step closer to realizing a hemispheric trade bloc while securing market access for its products. Isthmus states considered the potential for a Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with the United States, their largest trading partner, as an opportunity to enter the global market on a united front. A decade and a half on, CAFTA, PPP, and SIEPAC are interwoven, complimentary initiatives that exemplify a shift towards increased free trade and development throughout the region. As such, to understand one, the other must be examined.


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